Finding BTC bottom

[Biodom]

It is becoming clear that this correction is not finished.
In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business.
In 2011, market price bottomed just before hashing rate had finished its 50% decline.
Since it will take some time and duration for this decline to manifest itself, I predict that it (price bottom) will happen in ~3-4 mo, or even later because large scale miners would have some operational inertia.

As indicative of this, hashing rate increases are slowing to a crawl, but we need at least about ~50% difficulty decrease, which will be achieved if we slowly decline to somewhere between $72 and $240. $72 is somewhat extreme and would correspond to the same decline %%-wise as in 2011, but $240 is quite realistic and would be extremely painful if it will occur slowly.

Having said that, I am not selling my BTC yet because timing this process exactly is beyond my trading abilities.

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[fewcoins]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

[Biodom]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

[dropt]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

They received a crap tonne of VC recently.  Unless that class action is approved, KnC is found guilty, and reparations are made they're going to be around for awhile.

[DaRude]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

[ssmc2]

It's not like those costs will remain in the low 3 figures for long. Hash rate and difficulty increasing will lead us to 4 figures and beyond inevitably. Hodl.

[Biodom]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

we are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.

[DaRude]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

we are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.

Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range.

[Odalv]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

we are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.

Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range.

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107 
 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs
 - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s
 - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts

249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD  => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins

41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC   looks like their current price is below $228,25

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

we are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.

Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range.

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107 
 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs
 - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s
 - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts

249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD  => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins

41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC   looks like their current price is below $228,25

And they are a high cost Western mine playing more or less by the books...

[Biodom]

Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense

so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.

KnC costs are  “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html

we are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.

Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range.

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107  
 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs
 - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s
 - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts

249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD  => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins

41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC   looks like their current price is below $228,25

I got slightly different numbers by a simpler method:
400Gh for 6mo at $249 is $1.38/day
400GH right now produce 0.00541268 BTC/day
$1.38/0.00541268=~$255/BTC cost
$228 is not far from $255, so real cost is about that (or less) at THIS moment.
Hence, I am pretty sure that they will not survive below $200
As i posted before, 2011 correction equivalent is BTC $72. Even at twice as much, high cost producers will not survive, but network will be fine.
Also, as you can see, as soon as some of the bigger a-holes are down, price is creeping up (temporarily)

[Pkuwag]

really? is there a bottom on bitcoin price?

[Searing]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend



above chart say starts at $150 mean last oct .....doing the dance back to that amount it seems

that is the question...how much of the price driven speculation of the china folk will drive the market down as it was driven up..assuming they are getting out to fiat?

looks to me like no reason it would not go to $150 or lower at this point....ASSUMING it acts like a classic bubble and the mad rush to the exit

if nothing else the chart is daunting to say the least....but that is my thoughts that $150 is the bottom if you go by the start of this bubble the last year

and add in the reasons (speculation) most of china (who imho blew up the bubble) are now looking to get out

anyway I know zip...just saying ..not a pretty pic (hope I'm wrong big time)

[cbeast]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

[Searing]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

[cbeast]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

[Searing]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic

boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative

whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose

just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this

last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again

vs the dreaded view of it is all a  dead cat bounce to worthlessness

but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow

growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly)

also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in

[cbeast]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic

boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative

whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose

just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this

last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again

vs the dreaded view of it is all a  dead cat bounce to worthlessness

but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow

growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly)

also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in

You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price?

[Searing]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic

boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative

whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose

just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this

last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again

vs the dreaded view of it is all a  dead cat bounce to worthlessness

but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow

growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly)

also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in

You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price?

using the chart I posted $350 could be the "return to mean price" but myself I don't think it is done yet I think it more likely to be around $150 before it either goes up again as
a boom/bust cycle again (due to fragility of bitcoin economics) or it really is just a fad and will fade into 'dead cat bounce" territory..which means my friends will find my bitcoin
experiment to have much mirth

so the main difference we have is (hopefully) the bottom before it rebounds vs the alternative (shudder) of it being a fad and we fade into a dead cat bounce..and slow
dribble to oblivion

anyway that is the point of this thread ..where is the bottom I like your price better..but still think it will creep around $150 before all is said and done ..whichever it goes next

as to the rest up/down/sideways/oblivion..I'm more then clueless on that aspect....

[brg444]

my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?

are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>

Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.

my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price

assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term)

not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now

too much in  too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over

There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.

hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic

boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative

whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose

just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this

last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again

vs the dreaded view of it is all a  dead cat bounce to worthlessness

but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow

growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly)

also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in

You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price?

using the chart I posted $350 could be the "return to mean price" but myself I don't think it is done yet I think it more likely to be around $150 before it either goes up again as
a boom/bust cycle again (due to fragility of bitcoin economics) or it really is just a fad and will fade into 'dead cat bounce" territory..which means my friends will find my bitcoin
experiment to have much mirth

so the main difference we have is (hopefully) the bottom before it rebounds vs the alternative (shudder) of it being a fad and we fade into a dead cat bounce..and slow
dribble to oblivion

anyway that is the point of this thread ..where is the bottom I like your price better..but still think it will creep around $150 before all is said and done ..whichever it goes next

as to the rest up/down/sideways/oblivion..I'm more then clueless on that aspect....

there was 30k bought overnight at 300$

I can't see how we can possibly go to 150$