Biodom (OP)
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October 23, 2014, 08:02:15 PM Last edit: October 23, 2014, 08:20:52 PM by Biodom |
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It is becoming clear that this correction is not finished. In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business. In 2011, market price bottomed just before hashing rate had finished its 50% decline. Since it will take some time and duration for this decline to manifest itself, I predict that it (price bottom) will happen in ~3-4 mo, or even later because large scale miners would have some operational inertia.
As indicative of this, hashing rate increases are slowing to a crawl, but we need at least about ~50% difficulty decrease, which will be achieved if we slowly decline to somewhere between $72 and $240. $72 is somewhat extreme and would correspond to the same decline %%-wise as in 2011, but $240 is quite realistic and would be extremely painful if it will occur slowly.
Having said that, I am not selling my BTC yet because timing this process exactly is beyond my trading abilities.
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fewcoins
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October 23, 2014, 10:16:17 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
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Biodom (OP)
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October 25, 2014, 09:17:28 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse.
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dropt
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October 25, 2014, 10:25:06 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. They received a crap tonne of VC recently. Unless that class action is approved, KnC is found guilty, and reparations are made they're going to be around for awhile.
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DaRude
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In order to dump coins one must have coins
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October 25, 2014, 10:33:55 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.html
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"Feeeeed me Roger!" -Bcash
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ssmc2
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October 25, 2014, 10:42:09 PM |
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It's not like those costs will remain in the low 3 figures for long. Hash rate and difficulty increasing will lead us to 4 figures and beyond inevitably. Hodl.
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Biodom (OP)
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October 25, 2014, 11:23:24 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.htmlwe are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh.
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DaRude
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October 26, 2014, 01:07:00 AM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.htmlwe are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh. Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range.
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"Feeeeed me Roger!" -Bcash
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Odalv
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October 26, 2014, 01:08:50 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.htmlwe are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh. Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range. https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts 249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins 41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC looks like their current price is below $228,25
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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October 26, 2014, 05:23:12 PM |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.htmlwe are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh. Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range. https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts 249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins 41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC looks like their current price is below $228,25 And they are a high cost Western mine playing more or less by the books...
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Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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Biodom (OP)
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October 26, 2014, 06:12:43 PM Last edit: October 26, 2014, 07:42:15 PM by Biodom |
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Wait until tomorrow before you make post like this, you know bitcoin will have wild swings... A lot of buys & short covering will happen soon & if it goes near 400 because of that we can start assuming a average bitcoin price. If price breaks 300 then a thread saying it's clear this correction isn't over will make sense
so far it is still declining. I am waiting for some large mining company with higher electrical cost to go out of business (cough-K-N-C-cough) before we reverse. KnC costs are “significantly below $400”, keep dreaming http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/bitcoin-miner-ditches-clients-to-chase-2-billion-coding-prize.htmlwe are already "significantly below $400" at $349, so the time is nigh. Good point but is 12% really significant? That's why he's the CEO and gives out vague answers with lots of room to speculate. I for one would love to know their narrower range. https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-107 - 400 GH/s for 6 months at 249 USD ≈ 0.6 USD/GHs - to mine bitcoin today you need 237400.179 Thash/s / 3600 = 66 Thas/s = 66 000 GH/s - 66 000 GH/s / 400 = 165 contracts 249 USD * 165 contracts = 41 085 USD => and you will mine 1 BTC every day for 6 months => 180 bitcoins 41085 USD / 180 BTC = $228,25 USD/BTC looks like their current price is below $228,25 I got slightly different numbers by a simpler method: 400Gh for 6mo at $249 is $1.38/day 400GH right now produce 0.00541268 BTC/day $1.38/0.00541268=~$255/BTC cost $228 is not far from $255, so real cost is about that (or less) at THIS moment. Hence, I am pretty sure that they will not survive below $200 As i posted before, 2011 correction equivalent is BTC $72. Even at twice as much, high cost producers will not survive, but network will be fine. Also, as you can see, as soon as some of the bigger a-holes are down, price is creeping up (temporarily)
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Pkuwag
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October 27, 2014, 06:53:47 AM |
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really? is there a bottom on bitcoin price?
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Searing
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October 27, 2014, 07:02:46 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat? are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend above chart say starts at $150 mean last oct .....doing the dance back to that amount it seems that is the question...how much of the price driven speculation of the china folk will drive the market down as it was driven up..assuming they are getting out to fiat? looks to me like no reason it would not go to $150 or lower at this point....ASSUMING it acts like a classic bubble and the mad rush to the exit if nothing else the chart is daunting to say the least....but that is my thoughts that $150 is the bottom if you go by the start of this bubble the last year and add in the reasons (speculation) most of china (who imho blew up the bubble) are now looking to get out anyway I know zip...just saying ..not a pretty pic (hope I'm wrong big time)
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Old Style Legacy Plug & Play BBS System. Get it from www.synchro.net. Updated 1/1/2021. It also works with Windows 10 and likely 11 and allows 16 bit DOS game doors on the same Win 10 Machine in Multi-Node! Five Minute Install! Look it over it uninstalls just as fast, if you simply want to look it over. Freeware! Full BBS System! It is a frigging hoot!:)
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cbeast
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October 27, 2014, 07:22:50 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Searing
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October 27, 2014, 07:30:25 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over
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Old Style Legacy Plug & Play BBS System. Get it from www.synchro.net. Updated 1/1/2021. It also works with Windows 10 and likely 11 and allows 16 bit DOS game doors on the same Win 10 Machine in Multi-Node! Five Minute Install! Look it over it uninstalls just as fast, if you simply want to look it over. Freeware! Full BBS System! It is a frigging hoot!:)
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cbeast
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October 27, 2014, 07:32:08 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Searing
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October 27, 2014, 07:37:51 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again vs the dreaded view of it is all a dead cat bounce to worthlessness but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly) also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in
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Old Style Legacy Plug & Play BBS System. Get it from www.synchro.net. Updated 1/1/2021. It also works with Windows 10 and likely 11 and allows 16 bit DOS game doors on the same Win 10 Machine in Multi-Node! Five Minute Install! Look it over it uninstalls just as fast, if you simply want to look it over. Freeware! Full BBS System! It is a frigging hoot!:)
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cbeast
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October 27, 2014, 07:45:21 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again vs the dreaded view of it is all a dead cat bounce to worthlessness but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly) also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price?
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Searing
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October 27, 2014, 08:20:56 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again vs the dreaded view of it is all a dead cat bounce to worthlessness but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly) also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price? using the chart I posted $350 could be the "return to mean price" but myself I don't think it is done yet I think it more likely to be around $150 before it either goes up again as a boom/bust cycle again (due to fragility of bitcoin economics) or it really is just a fad and will fade into 'dead cat bounce" territory..which means my friends will find my bitcoin experiment to have much mirth so the main difference we have is (hopefully) the bottom before it rebounds vs the alternative (shudder) of it being a fad and we fade into a dead cat bounce..and slow dribble to oblivion anyway that is the point of this thread ..where is the bottom I like your price better..but still think it will creep around $150 before all is said and done ..whichever it goes next as to the rest up/down/sideways/oblivion..I'm more then clueless on that aspect....
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Old Style Legacy Plug & Play BBS System. Get it from www.synchro.net. Updated 1/1/2021. It also works with Windows 10 and likely 11 and allows 16 bit DOS game doors on the same Win 10 Machine in Multi-Node! Five Minute Install! Look it over it uninstalls just as fast, if you simply want to look it over. Freeware! Full BBS System! It is a frigging hoot!:)
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brg444
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October 27, 2014, 08:31:19 AM |
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend <snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again vs the dreaded view of it is all a dead cat bounce to worthlessness but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly) also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price? using the chart I posted $350 could be the "return to mean price" but myself I don't think it is done yet I think it more likely to be around $150 before it either goes up again as a boom/bust cycle again (due to fragility of bitcoin economics) or it really is just a fad and will fade into 'dead cat bounce" territory..which means my friends will find my bitcoin experiment to have much mirth so the main difference we have is (hopefully) the bottom before it rebounds vs the alternative (shudder) of it being a fad and we fade into a dead cat bounce..and slow dribble to oblivion anyway that is the point of this thread ..where is the bottom I like your price better..but still think it will creep around $150 before all is said and done ..whichever it goes next as to the rest up/down/sideways/oblivion..I'm more then clueless on that aspect.... there was 30k bought overnight at 300$ I can't see how we can possibly go to 150$
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"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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