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Author Topic: Stability (Split from Bitcoinica's announcement thread)  (Read 2379 times)
BTC_Bear
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May 25, 2012, 05:01:29 PM
 #21

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I also said this can take long, but its not a question of IF only WHEN

I like your technical analysis. But, couldn't this be said about anything?  It's not IF the world will end, it's WHEN.

No, it can't be said about anything.  For example:  It's not IF BTC_Bear will take it up the ass, it's WHEN.  Or:  It's not IF everyone will burst into flames, it's WHEN.  Not everything is inevitable.

LOL, what are we talking about here, fingers, dongs, gerbils, etc... I might be able to narrow the 'TIMEFRAME' for you. Smiley

But then by your own admission: "not everything is inevitable" would invalidate most Technical Analysis, welcome to the club.

Now, about those gerbils. Smiley

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May 25, 2012, 06:39:05 PM
 #22

Lemminwinks, GO TO THE SPARROW KING.

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May 25, 2012, 11:44:00 PM
 #23

I think we're going to remain stable for a while.

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May 27, 2012, 09:01:42 AM
 #24

By the way, isn't BTC remarkably stable lately? I thought it was going to be doom and gloom without Bitcoinica.Volume is decent too.

You have got to be kidding. Volume is in the Crapper.

Outside MtGox I'd say volume is even higher now than last month.

Which is great.

It is true that Gox's market share seems to be eroding.

We'd need time to see a trend. We definitely have less volume than last month in MtGox, and in other exchanges as far as I can see there's comparable volume or even better volume.

MtGox's volume chart is atrocious and seeing trends there is hard, partly because volume is dominated by peaks.

You can see the general trend here http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_trades.html (2 months) and to see the peaks go to mtgox.com click on the upper chart and expand back the whole month. The volumen graph scale is terrible, starting in -10K for some reason despite there being no such thing as negative volume, but if you move your mouse over it and see numbers, you can get a general idea.

I have an account in Intersango and as far as I can see the bid-ask volumes are higher than last month. I check regularly but I cannot see a proper way to really compare. It would be very interesting to have this data and that of other exchanges so we could have a scientific measure of market liquidity outside of MtGox.

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May 27, 2012, 04:25:49 PM
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This is pretty good at telling the story: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/


It does look good, but before accepting it as accurate, I'd like to know how do they calculate it and where do they get the data from...


So MtGox has a 20% lower market share than last year? in their page they claim "over 80%" with data being from July 2011.

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May 27, 2012, 04:42:56 PM
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This is pretty good at telling the story: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/


It does look good, but before accepting it as accurate, I'd like to know how do they calculate it and where do they get the data from...


So MtGox has a 20% lower market share than last year? in their page they claim "over 80%" with data being from July 2011.

That's right. Gox's market share has slipped that much, mostly due to the volume it has lost from Bitcoinica going down.

Are you not familiar with Bitcoincharts?

The data comes from the API feeds from all these exchanges: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Thanks. Are these APIs somewhat consistent? I knew the graphs, pretty much always in the first results from search engines, but I didn't know where they got the information from.

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May 29, 2012, 07:34:56 AM
 #27

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

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May 29, 2012, 03:08:54 PM
 #28

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months.  And I'll offer my own anecdote.  I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all.  Nothing against MtGox.  I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins.  My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.
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May 29, 2012, 04:23:14 PM
 #29

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months.  And I'll offer my own anecdote.  I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all.  Nothing against MtGox.  I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins.  My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

My current position is that it's better to buy bitcoins at any price rather than speculate - if the price goes down, buy more.
I chickened out with many of my bitcoins at $4.20 and then moved the $s to Bitcoinica - I could have kept them safely encrypted on my computer and just bought more to mitigate any dip in price.
Instead I'm now waiting in limbo.
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May 29, 2012, 08:37:58 PM
 #30

I believe the user pirate, is using investor funds to manipulate the price and volatility. In his post, he drops subtle hints about how he does this. (using large walls either side of the spread to control the price)

That's all fine-and-dandy if you can manage the risk.

It is also a good way to get bitten.

More evidence for you, chodpaba, suggesting MtGox is losing quite a bit of volume...the total number of bitcoins for sale is lower than I've seen it in months.  And I'll offer my own anecdote.  I no longer have any USD or Bitcoin in MtGox at all.  Nothing against MtGox.  I think it's one of the best bitcoin institutions right now, but I've recently moved from a trading mentality to one of saving and using bitcoins.  My great wish is that I'll never need to trade my bitcoins back into fiat currency and that eventually (I'm talking many, many years) I'll be able to easily buy most of what I like to buy with bitcoins instead of fiat.

My current position is that it's better to buy bitcoins at any price rather than speculate - if the price goes down, buy more.
I chickened out with many of my bitcoins at $4.20 and then moved the $s to Bitcoinica - I could have kept them safely encrypted on my computer and just bought more to mitigate any dip in price.
Instead I'm now waiting in limbo.

I guess I should have added that in addition to saving and using bitcoins, I'm also accumulating more.  Though, like you, I regret not doing this more over the past few months.  For a while I was accumulating some from buying back after sells I had made since the $7.2x top, but I hadn't put much new money in until a few weeks ago and I plan to buy some more in the coming days.  I definitely feel better now that my bitcoins are out of the exchanges and in offline and physically backed up wallets.  I was stung a little from this bitcoinica debacle, but thankfully I had enough good judgement to not put very much in there, though it'd be nice to get it back.
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