don't panic, btc is doing well !

[NotLambchop]

If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic

[HotHamHock]

If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic

because it comes naturally

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oK5nOMyteVc/Ty_vuxkegZI/AAAAAAAABoo/50af_XATIRM/s1600/%28%29+herd+mentality.jpg

[NotLambchop]

^
Herd mentality somehow got a bad rap in this herd of special snowflakes.  Herd mentality is an adoptive behavior, herd animals fare much better within the herd than outside it.  Going against the herd may seem romantic, but it's not life-affirming.
/tangent
Anyhow, knowing about "herd mentality" nets you nothing.  If you see everyone selling (tanking the price), you should also sell (the price is going down, regardless of it being irrational).

TL;DR: Everyone panicking is cause enough to sell.  Due to panic or common sense, doesn't matter, the result's the same.

[HotHamHock]

^
Herd mentality somehow got a bad rap in this herd of special snowflakes.  Herd mentality is an adoptive behavior, herd animals fare much better within the herd than outside it.  Going against the herd may seem romantic, but it's not life-affirming.
/tangent
Anyhow, knowing about "herd mentality" nets you nothing.  If you see everyone selling (tanking the price), you should also sell (the price is going down, regardless of it being irrational).

TL;DR: Everyone panicking is cause enough to sell.  Due to panic or common sense, doesn't matter, the result's the same.

True, but ignorance is a choice. It's only a matter of time before the herd abandons the one to the wolf, or leads it off a cliff. Therefore, the most logical solution is one of understanding; the herd, the wolf, when to follow and when to lead -even if alone.

[Wary]

I direct myself to the OP:

Now, first of all, hands off the ignore button. I consider the 'Oh-I-disagree-with-you-IGNORE' reflex as a kind of mediocre self defence mechanism, which does not really contribute in getting a decent view on any given situation. Fact of the matter is: this topic breathes panic. It is another one of those topics that, seemingly desperately, tries to keep as many people in the sinking ship as possible. What we do know pretty much for certain is this:

- 'Adoption' as it is used as an argument here, each and every time, is extremely overrated. I still see no one using Bitcoin, nor did I ever hear someone else talk about using it to buy things. Also, why should merchants all over the world start using something this volatile?
- The press revolving around Bitcoin is close to 90% 'negative press'.
- The 'weak hands', or in each case the average Joe that got fucked during the latest bubble, is leaving 'the game'. Without the average Joe, market manipulation will be a lot harder as there is less to gain.
- The Bitcoin price has been steadily dropping for months already and for now there is absolutely no end in sight. Bitcoin just is overvalued, whatever some of the more prominent members on these boards are saying. The ones that are talking their order book that is.
 - Most importantly: historical data does not, in any way, guarantee that Bitcoin will recover. There are multiple second generation Cryptocoins out there already and it has always been argued that Bitcoin might have simply been a first step. Bitcoin might very well be destroyed in the next few months/years.
- As long as the price keeps dropping, miners will get more and more uncomfortable which will probably affect the price drop.

1. Bitcoin cap is measured in billions. For you seeing it used everywhere the cap should reach trillions. So far, the adoption is a niche one. You can argue that if even one on 100 or 1000 is using it, you should still know somebody who uses it to buy something. Well, probably you do know them, they just keep quiet about it, because the "something" is drugs or gambling or pron.
2. Bad news just sell better. When everything's fine in my city/country, the press ignoring them. They appear in news only when something bad happens.
3. When price will come back, the Joe will come back as well. So far very tiny sliver of Joes been in bitcoin.
4. Bounce of 275 with good volume is a sign.
5. Altcoins exist for a while. No bitcoin-killer so far. IMO an altcoin can replace bitcoin only if all states will agree to ban bitcoin. Then some more stelthy altcoin, like Monero or something will take it's place.

[kwukduck]

The only possibility is an absolute total crash at this moment without chance of recovery. Cryptocoins 3.5 have taken over basically all volume and features that people want. If bitcoin was ever to be a success we should have had a new ath a few months ago. But no, just more and more dumps, faster and faster going down.

It was a nice experiment, now it's time to admit it didn't work and move on.

[Room101]

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

[beegatewood]

Why shouldn't we panic when btc is still under $500.

[Snipe85]

Why shouldn't we panic when btc is still under $500.

Simply because last year at this time it was below $200 

[EternalWingsofGod]

It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

So in other words if it follows the patterns
We are in for a long duration price drop that will hurt before we see some good
Get ready to feel the pain, on the other hand I wonder what that means for a rise and the length of time till the bottom is reached.

[romerun]

Well,  unusual large volume since last peak in bitfinex could be a good sign for the next rally

[Cluster2k]

= risen by factor 80

= fallen by factor 4

That is true, but it's not looking at the larger picture.  If my $1 share falls to 50c how much value have I lost?  50%.  From the level of 50c, by how much does my investment need to rise in value to get back to $1?  50%?  Of course not.  It now needs to rise by 100%.  The seemingly small falls mask how large the gains have to be just for my investment to return to even.

[600watt]

https://medium.com/zapchain-magazine/the-10-best-videos-to-watch-to-learn-about-bitcoin-c34f98f2fed1

we have viewed most of them already (and some are not 100% accurate) but they are reminding us of the bigger perspective.

which one is best?

[futurebit640]

Hold on tight, and don't let go!

[coinableS]

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Yes, poor kitty

[mmortal03]

= risen by factor 80

= fallen by factor 4

That is true, but it's not looking at the larger picture.  If my $1 share falls to 50c how much value have I lost?  50%.  From the level of 50c, by how much does my investment need to rise in value to get back to $1?  50%?  Of course not.  It now needs to rise by 100%.  The seemingly small falls mask how large the gains have to be just for my investment to return to even.

Precisely.

[arieq]

If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic

Well, BTC is like a great ship, there's nothing wrong with the ship but passengers screaming and running off the ship. You stop and ask the passengers why, they answer "I dunno, cuz everyone else is."

[Room101]

charts on blockchain are interesting....we just hit an all time high in number of transactions per day...finally beating the December 13 bubble. I think bitcoin is still growing a good steady rate, this year has just been returning to a more realistic price. Even without etf or anything else, i think we should continue to grow steadily, i estimate $1200 by this time next year.

[BootstrapCoinDev]

Bitcoin was overinflated with the idea of buying hotel rooms with it and the average banks in China buying into it and exchanging it. A purpose in which it was never intended for or at least Bitcoin itself not the idea as a whole. So yes BTC will continue to drop back down to natural levels and will one day return to it's original purpose.

[erre]

It' s not a ship, it's a train. And we just start the ride.

HODL!