★ NBA expert picks: New Season ★

[Xiaoxiao]

I will be posting the subscription report the day after each time:

Subscription Day 1, Friday Dec 5

Record straight bets: 4-5 = -1.322 units

Parlays: 0-2 = -0.3 unit

Total = -1.622 unit

1 unit each:

1. Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics under 217.5 1.915 (-109) W

2. Houston Rockets v Minnesota Timberwolves Game: Houston Rockets -6 1.767 (-130) L

3. Atlanta Hawks v Brooklyn Nets Game: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 1.933 (-107) W
 
4. Indiana Pacers v Sacramento Kings Game: Sacramento Kings -3.5 1.942 (-106) L

5. Phoenix Suns v Dallas Mavericks Game: Dallas Mavericks -5 1.873 (-115) L

6. Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks Game: Miami Heat +1.5 1.942 (-106) L


Thoughts:

1. Competitive game.  Laker's looking for blood and will not allow Celtics to score too much.  I could only see this going over if Lakers blowout the Celtics. Will usually be under in very competitive game.  Odds makers set line high because Celtics are always over this year.  But I think the shooting will be a bit poor in this game.

2. Minnesota may start out playing very tough but I think they will run out of gas and Houston will go for the kill.  But if Minnesota comes out playing real good and Houston is not giving a great effort, then I'd worry a bit.  If Houston starts out real hot, game is over.

3. If Atlanta gives a good effort, they will beat Brooklyn.  Brooklyn is a bit slow and old, but they are experienced.  Atlanta is pretty fast and athletic.  The key is which Atlanta team shows up and what kind of effort they give.  And also how Brooklyn might get under Atlanta's skin.  Also refs may butcher this game.  But overall, Atlanta would beat Brooklyn 7 out of 10 times.  So definitely good bet here.

4. Sacramento has been on a slump lately without Demarcus Cousins.  However, they still have a lot of firing power.  They are at home and they should be getting hungry now that they're record is 9-9 after getting to a great start on one of the toughest schedules.

5. The least confident of all the games I chose.  But still profitable in the long run.  Dallas has just come home from an emotional high of some sick wins on their recent road trip (vs Bulls and Mil).  Hopefully they haven't run out of gas here against a high octane Suns team.  But obviously Dallas is the better team then Suns.

6. Milwaukee is tough team at home, but look for Miami to play even tougher.

I am still researching the Denver vs Washington game.  Besides that I don't like the lines for the the other games tonight, at least not yet.

Stay tuned!

Xiao


1 unit each:

Denver Nuggets v Washington Wizards Game: Denver Nuggets +4.5 1.952 (-105) L

San Antonio Spurs v Memphis Grizzlies over 193 1.924 (-108) W

Reminder. picks will be sent out on or before 2200 GMT.

1 unit:

San Antonio Spurs v Memphis Grizzlies over 193 1.952 (-105) W

0.2 unit:

Houston Rockets v Minnesota Timberwolves Game: Houston Rockets -71.933 (-107)
Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks Game: Miami Heat +1.51.924 (-108)
PARLAY
2 Game Parlay 3.719 (+272)

0.1 unit:

Los Angeles Lakers v Boston Celtics under 217.5 1.942 (-106)
Atlanta Hawks v Brooklyn Nets Game: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 1.933 (-107)
Phoenix Suns v Dallas Mavericks Game: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 1.800 (-125)
Indiana Pacers v Sacramento Kings Game: Sacramento Kings -2.5 1.767 (-130)
San Antonio Spurs v Memphis Grizzlies over 193 1.952 (-105)
PARLAY
5 Game Parlay 23.306 (+2231)

Just realized I posted a dupe for SA v MEM 193 over.

Ignore that.  I meant to post this for 1 unit:

Please get your bets in for this game.  You still have plenty of time.

San Antonio Spurs v Memphis Grizzlies
Game: San Antonio Spurs +1 1.906 (-1100     W

[moneybat]

So when are today's (yesterday's actually) picks being revealed. Seen a good ratio before the subscription service and was interested before the negative 2 days profit now. How did you do yesterday?

[GreatCoinBearer]

If I subscribe, where should I place my bets?

[Vani]

So when are today's (yesterday's actually) picks being revealed. Seen a good ratio before the subscription service and was interested before the negative 2 days profit now. How did you do yesterday?

6 December was profitable. The picks and my calculations.

1 unit single bets (2-2)

Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons Game: Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 1.961 (-104) W
Golden State Warriors v Chicago Bulls Game: Golden State Warriors -1.5 1.800 (-125) W
Golden State Warriors v Chicago Bulls under 203 1.991 (-101) L
Orlando Magic v Sacramento Kings Game: Sacramento Kings -5 1.780 (-128)  L

Total 1 unit bets
-0.239 units


0.2 unit single bet (1-0)*
Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons Game: Philadelphia 76ers ML 5.480 (+448) W

*Only a win if your bookie included overtime with the bet, most of them do, but not all of them. With some bookies you can (or must) bet on win, lose or draw for the regular time only.

Total 0.2 unit bets
+0.896 units
--------------------------------------------------
Total 6 December picks
+0.657 units



Overview since the subscription picks
5 December: -1.622 units
6 December: +0.657 units
--------------------------------------------------
Total today since subscription 5 December
-0.965 units

Tonight single picks 4 won 5 lost and two combos with 0.10 ant 0.20 so its -1.567 units for today and -8.29 units for this month

Total of December (free picks + subscription) - thanks to the calculations of the forum member ratioxz.

Free picks: 1-4 December
-6.723 units*
 
* I think it was calculated with the odds at the moment ratioxz placed the picks. The outcome can be slight different due the original odds that was given by Xia at the moment Xia placed his picks.

Subscription picks (since 5 December)
-0.965 units

--------------------------------------------------
Total December
-7.688 units


Congrats with the profitable day. The 0.2 bet was without a doubt the best pick of the day.

[Vani]

If I subscribe, where should I place my bets?

Depends if you want to bet with BTC or Fiat. If you want to bet with BTC, I recommend Nitrogensports in combination with using this subscription. If you want to play with Fiat: there are hundreds of Fiat bookies. Depending where you live bookies can restrict your country. Read the terms and conditions or ask the costumer service to be sure your country has no restrictions for the bookie(s) of your choice. Be wise and read some reviews of other users of the bookies before you deposit your money.

[arvindr]

If I subscribe, where should I place my bets?

Depends if you want to bet with BTC or Fiat. If you want to bet with BTC, I recommend Nitrogensports in combination with using this subscription. If you want to play with Fiat: there are hundreds of Fiat bookies. Depending where you live bookies can restrict your country. Read the terms and conditions or ask the costumer service to be sure your country has no restrictions for the bookie(s) of your choice. Be wise and read some reviews of other users of the bookies before you deposit your money.

XiaoXiao places hit bets at nitrogensports, and is that is where his bet slips are from. But you can pretty much chose any sports betting sites to bet on.

[Xiaoxiao]

Btw- 50% promo refund obv doesnt count for picks before sub started.

Will post yesterdays results and report soon

[Xiaoxiao]

Subscription day 3

Last night's report/picks:

Last nights thoughts- No excuse for Sacramento to allow 10+ lead to slip away in 4th quarter at home against Indiana.  Horrible defeinse, they should have lost in OT as well.  Dissappointed at my MIA +1.5 pick.  Other than that I liked all my other picks.

Tonight's picks:

1 Golden State Warriors v Chicago Bulls under 203 1.991 (-101) L

2 Orlando Magic v Sacramento Kings Game: Sacramento Kings -5 1.780 (-128) L
 
1 the #'s say it should go over, but it is a heated match and I don't really see Bulls allowing GSW to score over 100 and don't see GSW allowing bulls to score over 100 either.

2 The consensus is that ORL will win ATS.  But I think SAC is much better team even without Demarcus Cousins.  

Taking Golden State -1.5 is very tempting, but not going to do it.  They aren't used to scrappy teams like the Bulls yet this season.

Addition:

1 unit

Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons Game: Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 1.961 (-104) W

Good odds, and Detroit is offensively deficient.

.2 unit:

Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons Game: Philadelphia 76ers ML 5.480 (+448) W

Great odds, PHI definitely has a chance to win considering they have length to put Detroit in low scoring.

1 unit:

Golden State Warriors v Chicago Bulls Game: Golden State Warriors -1.5 1.800 (-125) W

Going to have to pull the trigger on Warriros here.  Noah has problematic ankle, and he is the key to defense and rebounding. He will either not play or see limited minutes, and having a problematic ankle hurts real bad to one's lateral movement on defense, as well as rebounding.

No more bets tonight, it is 2200 GMT

Last night: 3-2 , +0.657 unit

Subscription record: 7-7

Units: -.965

[Xiaoxiao]

Subscription begins Dec. 5!!!

Record thus far this year: 91-59-5 (W-L-T) for 30.5 units profit!

Included is expert picks (guaranteed 60-200+ picks per month), solid parlay combos that I see profitable, confidence level, explanations, insider news content and rumors, and more.

Why I am so good at what I do:

Most experts only rely on stats and algorithms, and might manage a small victory in the long run and probably a loss after vig (the fee taken by the sports betting exchange). My picks will be aided by film analysisand statistical algorithms as well, but I will also factor in team psychology, momentum, morale and motivation, bench rotations, and many other factors denoted in a point system.

Finally there are things that go beyond algorithms.

I was a former basketball trainer (yes basketball exclusively), AAU coach, and serious basketball player.  But most of all, I understand the NBA and the psychology of the odds makers, as well as players and coaches.  

Price for subscription:

3 days: $5 (in btc)*

1 week: $10

SPECIAL PROMOTION 1 month 45 days: $30*

SPECIAL PROMOTION for monthly subscribers: If I don't profit in units for your month, you will get a 50% refund of your money in btc for the days of that month*

Please private message forum member DebitMe profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=73438 for payment info.  He will be escrowing funds and handling payments.

For any questions, please private message myself.

I will be emailing report daily @ 22:00 GMT on weekdays.  Weekends will be the same unless there is matinee game.  In that case, I will be emailing picks 1 hour before the start of the matinee game.

Remember:

I am not just a sports tipper or math guy, I am also a basketball expert.  This is why I win, and this is my day job.

If you're a basketball fan and sports bettor, let me do all the work for you.

*Promotion ends Jan. 1, 2015
*Due to the complications with paypal, I can only accept payment in btc
*All conversion will be in bitstamp price.
*Picks before subscription does not count towards a losing record for the month

[Xiaoxiao]

Get in now folks.  $30 for 45 days is a steal.  That's less than 70 cents per day for full picks and reports and commentary!  And if I don't profit in units AFTER vig, you get 50% refunded to you!  It's a win-win situation!  That's how confident I am in my abilities.

[Xiaoxiao]

Notice folks, I never take big favorites ML in order to boast my W-L record.  Especially for NBA, because any team may show up in one night.  Plus, it is the coward's way out.  Any expert tippers that do that is probably not skilled nor will be profitable in the long run.  You can win 5 in a row, and lose 1 and you're negative.

[Xiaoxiao]

Last night's report:

Subscription Day 4:

Washington Wizards v Boston Celtics

Game: Washington Wizards -3.5 1.897 (-111) L

Record 7-8

- 1.965 units.

[btclegend]

Last night's report:

Subscription Day 3:

Washington Wizards v Boston Celtics

Game: Washington Wizards -3.5 1.897 (-111) L

Record 7-8

- 1.965 units.

not a good result so far 

[Xiaoxiao]

Last night's report:

Subscription Day 3:

Washington Wizards v Boston Celtics

Game: Washington Wizards -3.5 1.897 (-111) L

Record 7-8

- 1.965 units.

not a good result so far 

Just be patient, the NBA season is a marathon, not a 10 yard dash.

[Vani]

Last night's report:

Subscription Day 4:

Washington Wizards v Boston Celtics

Game: Washington Wizards -3.5 1.897 (-111) L

Record 7-8

- 1.965 units.

Correction this was subscription day 3.


day 1 - 5 December: -1.622 units
day 2 - 6 December: +0.657 units
day 3 - 7 December: -1.000 units
day 4 - 8 December: pending

[Vani]

Day 4 (8 December)

1 unit
Atlanta Hawks v Indiana Pacers Game: Atlanta Hawks +1 1.915 (-109) W
Boston Celtics v Washington Wizards under 204.5 1.924 (-108) L
Utah Jazz v Sacramento Kings over 198 1.952 (-105) L

Total 1 unit
(-1.085)

1.5 unit
Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors Game: Denver Nuggets +9.5 1.942 (-106) W
Suns v Los Angeles Clippers Game: Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 1.942 (-106) L

Total 1.5 units
(-0.087)

0.2 unit
Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors Game: Denver Nuggets ML 5.007 (+401) L

Total 0.2 unit
(-0.200)

-----------------------------------------------
Total day 4 (8 December)
-1.372 units


day 1 - (5 December): -1.622 units
day 2 - (6 December): +0.657 units
day 3 - (7 December): -1.000 units
day 4 - (8 December): -1.372 units

Total since subscription: -3.337 units

Record of predictions: 9-12

[Vani]

Xia will fight back. I already ordered a new plasma television

[Xiaoxiao]

Tonights picks:

1 unit:

1. Atlanta Hawks v Indiana Pacers Game: Atlanta Hawks +1 1.915 (-109) W
 
1.5 units:

2. Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors Game: Denver Nuggets +9.5 1.942 (-106) W

0.2 units:

3. Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors Game: Denver Nuggets ML 5.007 (+401) L


1 unit:

Boston Celtics v Washington Wizards under 204.5 1.924 (-108) L

1 unit:

Suns v Los Angeles Clippers Game: Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 1.942 (-106) L

.5 extra unit for:


Suns v Los Angeles Clippers Game: Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 1.942 (-106) L


1 unit:

Utah Jazz v Sacramento Kings over 198 1.952 (-105) L

Total day 4 (8 December)
-1.372 units

day 1 - (5 December): -1.622 units
day 2 - (6 December): +0.657 units
day 3 - (7 December): -1.000 units
day 4 - (8 December): -1.372 units

Total since subscription: -3.337 units

Record of predictions: 9-12

vani's calculations look good, I trust he knows how to add/subtract

[Xiaoxiao]

TOR shooting 68% from the field, that is not real.  It is pure luck.  Last night they should have lost to DEN, but shot like 65% from the field in 1st half again and got EVERY single call in favor of them.

This team is the most inflated team in the NBA.  They are not elite in anyway.  They will crash and burn, it's a matter of time.

[Vani]

vani's calculations look good, I trust he knows how to add/subtract

I'm good with my calculator on my desktop

But a serious note now: I read all the messages in the mail and I can tell to all the people that read this thread that Xia puts a lot of work to doing all of this. He knows a lot of NBA and basketball. So it also a learning experience for me. NBA is the only league that I can't make a profit. On all the other sports and leagues I do very well. But NBA is a pain for me. My last ~150 NBA predictions gave a break even, so it was waste of time for me.

I'm thinking about to start a service myself next year, but I underestimated all the energy that you need to run a service. The feeling that others following your predictions (with their money) can be stressful. So I need to think again. I like my health (quit smoking 2 years ago) and I hate stress.

Last day was unlucky. I watched most of the games and small but important differences - like for example a normal referee in the nuggets game - had made a profitable (or a better) day for us.