★ NBA expert picks: New Season ★

[Zebrasko]

Really want to see yesterday picks and results, and if you did Rockets spread or ML like I did. Crazy match...

The last two days no picks results in this thread. Not a good sign. We will wait and see.

Bookmarked and watching atm.

However... Parlays 

I am still yet to see a solid pick subscription that does not rely on something gimmicky like parlays or martingale betting strategy to cover the losses

Agreed with the parlays. It's bad.

[Xiaoxiao]

Yikes. I wish you luck and I'm following. However your posts seem to indicate you are emotional about it and I've never seen someone be so emotional and successful at capping. How many subs do you have?  I'd rather see a longer positive unit count before getting involved...

Everyone is emotional.  Some show it some don't.  It's not like I have to let out my feelings on here or else i won't be able to handle it. I'd feel absolutely fine if I didn't rant at all.  I was just being very transparent and showing my precise thought process for the games.

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 5

Toronto Raptors v Cleveland Cavaliers
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers -6 1.897 (-111)      L

Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder
Game: Milwaukee Bucks +10 1.942 (-106)     L

San Antonio Spurs v Utah Jazz
Game: San Antonio Spurs -9 1.882 (-113)      L

Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
Game: Miami Heat +4.5 1.971 (-103)         W

Portland Trail Blazers v Detroit Pistons
Game: Portland Trail Blazers -8 1.952 (-105)  W


Day 6

Los Angeles Clippers v Indiana Pacers

Game: Los Angeles Clippers -6.51.952 (-105)   W

Washington Wizards v Orlando Magic   (2units)
 
Game: Washington Wizards -51.942 (-106)    L

Boston Celtics v Charlotte Hornets

Game: Boston Celtics +2.51.933 (-107)    L

Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
under 202.51.924 (-108)             W


Record: 13-18 (w-l)

units won (after commission fee): -6.462


Not the best of starts, the inverse of my start to November.  However, not unexpected.  The lines of have gotten sharper adjusting to the season, and results have been sporadic, especially ATS results.  Lots of close games that could have went either way between a superior team vs inferior team (record, matchup, stat wise)

As you can see, there is no gimmicks here.  My goal is to win and have my subscribers win.  No martingale strategies, or "gimmicky" parlays.  I post parlays sparingly if I find them profitable.  I don't post it to try to show a profit so I don't have to refund 50% to my subscribers.  I don't give a shit about those .2 btc's if I have to refund.  I have 3 subscribers, and 2 people I am giving this subscription away for free.  I put in about 1-3 hours a day to this, so my goal here is not in the interest of money.  My goal is for my subscribers to win and myself as well.

These kinds of posts make me sick:

Bookmarked and watching atm.

However... Parlays  

I am still yet to see a solid pick subscription that does not rely on something gimmicky like parlays or martingale betting strategy to cover the losses

[ratioxz]

Yesterday one won,one lost because an overtime,so no luck again.

[Danx-]

Yesterday one won,one lost because an overtime,so no luck again.

Is this after Xiao's post or do you include that in this?

I guess this is for 11/12 picks that still weren't settled by time of Xiaoxiao post. or maybe personal results.

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 5

Toronto Raptors v Cleveland Cavaliers
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers -6 1.897 (-111)      L

Milwaukee Bucks v Oklahoma City Thunder
Game: Milwaukee Bucks +10 1.942 (-106)     L

San Antonio Spurs v Utah Jazz
Game: San Antonio Spurs -9 1.882 (-113)      L

Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
Game: Miami Heat +4.5 1.971 (-103)         W

Portland Trail Blazers v Detroit Pistons
Game: Portland Trail Blazers -8 1.952 (-105)  W


Day 6

Los Angeles Clippers v Indiana Pacers

Game: Los Angeles Clippers -6.51.952 (-105)   W

Washington Wizards v Orlando Magic   (2units)
 
Game: Washington Wizards -51.942 (-106)    L

Boston Celtics v Charlotte Hornets

Game: Boston Celtics +2.51.933 (-107)    L

Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
under 202.51.924 (-108)             W


Record: 13-18 (w-l)

units won (after commission fee): -6.462


Not the best of starts, the inverse of my start to November.  However, not unexpected.  The lines of have gotten sharper adjusting to the season, and results have been sporadic, especially ATS results.  Lots of close games that could have went either way between a superior team vs inferior team (record, matchup, stat wise)

As you can see, there is no gimmicks here.  My goal is to win and have my subscribers win.  No martingale strategies, or "gimmicky" parlays.  I post parlays sparingly if I find them profitable.  I don't post it to try to show a profit so I don't have to refund 50% to my subscribers.  I don't give a shit about those .2 btc's if I have to refund.  I have 3 subscribers, and 2 people I am giving this subscription away for free.  I put in about 1-3 hours a day to this, so my goal here is not in the interest of money.  My goal is for my subscribers to win and myself as well.

These kinds of posts make me sick:

Bookmarked and watching atm.

However... Parlays  

I am still yet to see a solid pick subscription that does not rely on something gimmicky like parlays or martingale betting strategy to cover the losses

^ Record should have been 13-17 after day 6.  Counted the same game as 2 losses on accident.


Day 7  Thur 12/11

1 unit

Cleveland Cavaliers v Oklahoma City Thunder W

under 202.51.942 (-106)

Houston Rockets v Sacramento Kings L

under 197.51.942 (-106)

Last nights thoughts: really liked my picks for last night, thought they were pretty sharp.  Was pretty unlucky that the SAC v HOU game was clearly going to go under 198 when score was 95-92 with 20 seconds left. But game ends up going OT where they scored 32 points in 5 min.

Day 8 Fri 12/12

Tonights picks

1 unit:

Basketball - NBAMiami Heat v Utah Jazz Game: Miami Heat +4 1.780 (-128) W

Basketball - NBACleveland Cavaliers v New Orleans Pelicans Game: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 1.924 (-108) W

Portland Trail Blazers v Chicago Bulls over 195.5 1.787 (-127) W

Basketball - NBA Oklahoma City Thunder v Minnesota TimberwolvesGame: under 204 1.942 (-106) W
 
Basketball - NBANew York Knicks v Boston CelticsGame: New York Knicks +8.5 1.721 (-139) W

Basketball - NBALos Angeles Lakers v San Antonio Spurs Game: Los Angeles Lakers +12.5 1.924 (-108) W

Will tell thoughts during game time...

Thoughts about tonights games:  MIA v UTAH is my most confident pick tonight.  MIA is not messing around because they have a great chance to get good position in the East.  Utah on the other hand is an ok team in the West.  Mediorcy in the west will get you no where.  Also MIA matches up great vs Utah.

I like how Pelicans matches up with CAV.  They play tough on offense and they have ok defense.  Cavs are b2b with a banged up lebron and kyrie, who were uncertain if they were playing. Without them, CAV offense is all messed up and has no chemistry.

Portland v Bulls, 2 teams that have solid chemistry plus shooters, they are good at defense but I definitely see this going over 195.5.

OKC v Minnesota... 2 athletic teams, both competing.  OKC competing for playoff position and Timberwolves have several aspiring young players.  Least confident of all my picks tonight, but 204 seems a bit high for 2 teams that have new lineups put together recently.

NYC v Bos, ny matches up great vs boston.  They're team is actually quite deep, but just hasn't found their rhythm on offense.  Also some more hustle and less ego would help too (especially for the scorers).

SAS is really not playing well this year. LAL is starting to pick it up.  They match up great vs SAS.  +12.5 is a steal imo.  

We shall see how the night unfolds.  Have been running extremely below expected value this month.  Odds of this continuing to happen is astronomical.  Several times where I lose when I am 90% favorite going into the final seconds.  For example, last night in the SAC v HOU game.... the DEN v TOR game... and a few others.

Right now it is looking okay for our picks, lets hope nothing out of ordinary happens.

Subscription record to date: 20-18

Units after sportsbook commission: -1.442

[lazyhorse]

GG mate! all wins in last day picks!

[Xiaoxiao]

Now to share the slips from last night. This is what happens when things are running good.  As opposed to the other day when I was getting extremely unlucky.













This is only half of the slips.  The others all look similar to this one.  Sure on a bad day I would lose most/all of the parlays, but look at the risk vs the reward I'm getting here.

I'm still thinking about how I can incorporate my parlay strategies to the subscription.  I don't want to make it where the subscriber runs out of funds to be able to follow all my picks precisely.

I am not like other "experts" that break even or lose a tiny bit over the long run.

The more subscribers I get, the better I can perform.  Right now I only have 3 subscribers, but as I get more, I will be motivated to figure out a strategy and system to incorporate parlays as well as straight picks, and make it reasonable so subscribers would be able to copy all the picks over duration of subscription.

[caga]

Thats a really nice record. You should definitely integrate parlays into your betting tips as well.
Would definitely be much better than betting on single tips.

[Carbomat]

Day 8 Fri 12/12

Tonights picks

1 unit:

Basketball - NBAMiami Heat v Utah Jazz Game: Miami Heat +4 1.780 (-128) W

Basketball - NBACleveland Cavaliers v New Orleans Pelicans Game: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 1.924 (-108) W

Portland Trail Blazers v Chicago Bulls over 195.5 1.787 (-127) W

Basketball - NBA Oklahoma City Thunder v Minnesota TimberwolvesGame: under 204 1.942 (-106) W
 
Basketball - NBANew York Knicks v Boston CelticsGame: New York Knicks +8.5 1.721 (-139) W

Basketball - NBALos Angeles Lakers v San Antonio Spurs Game: Los Angeles Lakers +12.5 1.924 (-108) W



Subscription record to date: 20-18

Units after sportsbook commission: -1.442

That record update was almost immediately after the games. I see a pattern here. Just joking
Nice come back and I'm happy for all of you. No update yet for the last day. Nice to see later on if it was again a good winning day.

[ratioxz]

Nope last day was really bad all 3 bets with 1U looses

[Carbomat]

Sorry for hearing that

[caga]

Nope last day was really bad all 3 bets with 1U looses

I think it would be much better if he shares tips/bets that he is making. Including parlays.

[Omikifuse]

Thats a really nice record. You should definitely integrate parlays into your betting tips as well.
Would definitely be much better than betting on single tips.

you can pick the most certain results and parlay or do any other multiple betting by yourself.

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 9

1 unit:

Basketball - NBALos Angeles Clippers v Milwaukee BucksGame: Los Angeles Clippers -5.51.906 (-110) L

Basketball - NBADetroit Pistons v Sacramento KingsGame: Sacramento Kings -5.51.897 (-111) L

Basketball - NBAAtlanta Hawks v Orlando MagicGame: Atlanta Hawks -31.933 (-107) L




Last night was a bad night.  Went 0-3.  It got me to do some digging on why Sacramento is performing so poorly, especially at home.  Right now I am talking to a friend who's a strength and conditioner trainer, who worked with some of the players from Sacramento, such as Ben McLemore and Darren Collison, and Landry fields.

He tells me that some teams when they have been at home for more than 2 or 3 days, may perform poorly for the following reasons.  They have gotten lazy and comfortable at home (when one is on the road and traveling, you are on a tight schedule and you don't have the chance to fall into bad habits).  They have easier access to marijuana.  I'm sure on the road some of the players have access to marijuana also, but at home it would be a lot easier.  Marijuana helps players relax, but it is definitely makes you a lot less sharper in games, even after 24 hours - 48 hrs of use.  I'm told that it is very likely that several teams that are very polarized in performances, are under the influence of home/away games as well as the use of illicit drugs including peds (performance enhancing drugs).

So I will be making a note of this in the future.  there are certainly a lot of very polarizing teams such as Denver and Sacramento.

Denver on the other hand has costed me an extreme amount of units this year.  It's clear that their coaching staff is not trying to win this year, and is experimenting with rotations and "just letting them play".  Their talent and ability far exceeds their performances.  For example last night, Denver was up 14 points in 2nd quarter.  And by the end of the 2nd quarter, they were DOWN 6 points.  That's a 20 point difference in a matter of 8 minutes.  How do you, as a coach, allow that to happen without calling a timeout and telling your players to regroup and refocus.  A timeout was called when they were down 3.  So he let them slip 17 points before calling a timeout.  Most good coaches would have called a timeout after 5 point slip.

Anyway this is some valuable info.  Need to start taking note of which teams tend to be very polarized.  So when they do show up some times, they can beat giants and those are huge wins.

Great info I received from a trainer/ conditioning coach.  He also told me that extended stays at home could hurt or help a team.  So also very polarizing.  Won't go into too much more info on that.  This is a sneak peek at the info you get for subscribers.

Record: 20-21

Units: -4.442 after vig (3-4 units)

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 10 +2.662 units

1 unit

Chicago Bulls v Miami Heat
Game: Chicago Bulls -4.5 1.924 (-108) W

Los Angeles Lakers v Minnesota Timberwolves
Game: Los Angeles Lakers -2 1.814 (-123) W

San Antonio Spurs v Denver Nuggets
Game: San Antonio Spurs -4 1.924 (-108)  W

As the season progresses, I will be making less picks.  I start out making more picks to test out different teams.  But as season progress, the rate of wins should be a lot more as I will be taking less and less picks.  

But still at least 60 picks per month.

Record 23-21

Units: - 1.78 after 4.0 vig.

[calci]

Day 10

1 unit

Chicago Bulls v Miami Heat
Game: Chicago Bulls -4.5 1.924 (-108) W

Los Angeles Lakers v Minnesota Timberwolves
Game: Los Angeles Lakers -2 1.814 (-123) W

San Antonio Spurs v Denver Nuggets
Game: San Antonio Spurs -4 1.924 (-108)  W

As the season progresses, I will be making less picks.  I start out making more picks to test out different teams.  But as season progress, the rate of wins should be a lot more as I will be taking less and less picks.  

But still at least 60 picks per month.

Record 23-21

Units: - 1.78 after 4.0 vig.

Nice comeback. Lets hope the week goes in positive now .

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 11 Monday, 16th

+0.58 units

Last night was okay.  Bulls beat Miami badly like I expected.  Miami just came home from road trip so they are quite tired and Bulls just left home so they are a bit pumped and won earlier vs Portland.  Lakers almost blew it again because they are so stupid allowing Kobe to play point AND he is just dribbling up the court and launching at clutch times.  That is ridiculous.  He is a wing player, not a ball handler or point.

Today's picks:

1 unit

Pending15 Dec 6:05pmBasketball - NBA Los Angeles Lakers v Indiana PacersGame: Los Angeles Lakers +5 1.942 (-106) L

Pending15 Dec 9:05pmBasketball - NBA San Antonio Spurs v Portland Trail BlazersGame: over 192.5 1.767 (-130) W

Pending15 Dec 8:05pmBasketball - NBA Milwaukee Bucks v Phoenix SunsGame: Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 1.933 (-107) W

Pending15 Dec 6:05pmBasketball - NBA Boston Celtics v Philadelphia 76ersGame: Boston Celtics -5 1.915 (-109) W

Pending15 Dec 9:05pmBasketball - NBA San Antonio Spurs v Portland Trail BlazersGame: San Antonio Spurs +8 1.924 (-108) L

Pending15 Dec 9:35pmBasketball - NBA Detroit Pistons v Los Angeles ClippersGame: Detroit Pistons +12.5 1.952 (-105) L

0.2 unit:

Pending15 Dec 8:05pmBasketball - NBAMilwaukee Bucks v Phoenix SunsGame: Milwaukee Bucks ML 2.947 (+195) W

Pending15 Dec 9:05pmBasketball - NBASan Antonio Spurs v Portland Trail BlazersGame: San Antonio Spurs ML 4.041 (+304) L

Thoughts and analysis later!

Addition 1 unit:

Orlando Magic v Toronto Raptors Game: Toronto Raptors -6 1.774 (-129) W

2300 GMT, no more picks tonight!

Record 25-22

Units after ~4.5 vig: -1.2

Let's go folks, subscribe! 45 day subscription is less than 50c a day.  You have virtually nothing to lose here. If I don't profit during your subscription duration, I will refund you 50% of your subscription.  Subscription comes with daily picks with exact odds, and report on picks and what my analysis is and strategy.

Was negative 6 units right off the bat because of some incredible variance, and also because of some big odd combo/parlays.

The more subscribers I get, the better I will do.  Right now I am putting in 2-3 hours of time per day and only have 3 subscribers.  If I can get more, I will get the funding I need to sustain my NBA league pass subscription.

Several people have attacked me saying most sports picks in this forum has failed.  This is not the same, I am not a sports bettor.  This is exclusively NBA, where I have a major edge over the competition.

For example, my record for picks of odds of better than 3 to 1 is 6-5 this year.  And for odds of 5 to 1 or greater is 3-2.  That just shows where I can find the gems in the lines.  For the subscription period, my record for odds of 3 to 1 or better is 2-2.  And also, a lot of the losses for these picks were by a few points or went to overtime.

Again for those that say that I'm going to fail; that's not happening.  I've got the complete package here: the #'s plugged into my own algorithm, analysis of match ups, complete basketball knowledge, proficiency in strength and conditioning, and former traveling bball player.

All you have to do is check your mail @ 2300 GMT everyday, select the picks, and you will see a profit in the long run, as long as you manage your bankroll so that you don't run out of funds during the bad stretches.  I'm a person with integrity.  I would NEVER do some kind of martingale system so that I am guaranteed to show a profit.  And all my parlays are 1/10 of a normal unit and I don't post parlays much at all, only certain combos of picks with EXTREME high confidence.  I definitely take consideration of the well being of my subscribers.

If you're basketball fan, this is the real deal.  It adds a bit of excitement AND profit to something you already enjoy.

Subscription begins Dec. 5!!!

Record thus far this year: 91-59-5 (W-L-T) for 30.5 units profit!

Included is expert picks (guaranteed 60-200+ picks per month), solid parlay combos that I see profitable, confidence level, explanations, insider news content and rumors, and more.

Why I am so good at what I do:

Most experts only rely on stats and algorithms, and might manage a small victory in the long run and probably a loss after vig (the fee taken by the sports betting exchange). My picks will be aided by film analysisand statistical algorithms as well, but I will also factor in team psychology, momentum, morale and motivation, bench rotations, and many other factors denoted in a point system.

Finally there are things that go beyond algorithms.

I was a former basketball trainer (yes basketball exclusively), AAU coach, and serious basketball player.  But most of all, I understand the NBA and the psychology of the odds makers, as well as players and coaches.  

Price for subscription:

3 days: $5 (in btc)*

1 week: $10

SPECIAL PROMOTION 1 month 45 days: $30*

SPECIAL PROMOTION for monthly subscribers: If I don't profit in units for your month, you will get a 50% refund of your money in btc for the days of that month*

Please private message forum member DebitMe profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=73438 for payment info.  He will be escrowing funds and handling payments.

For any questions, please private message myself.

I will be emailing report daily @ 22:00 GMT on weekdays.  Weekends will be the same unless there is matinee game.  In that case, I will be emailing picks 1 hour before the start of the matinee game.

Remember:

I am not just a sports tipper or math guy, I am also a basketball expert.  This is why I win, and this is my day job.

If you're a basketball fan and sports bettor, let me do all the work for you.

*Promotion ends Jan. 1, 2015
*Due to the complications with paypal, I can only accept payment in btc
*All conversion will be in bitstamp price.
*Picks before subscription does not count towards a losing record for the month

[Vani]

Nice comeback. Lets hope the week goes in positive now .

Xia is my tiger - he fights every day against the enemy (the bookies) and never gives up  

[Xiaoxiao]

Day 12

No picks for today.  I don't like any of the lines.

At first glance, MIA +6.5 vs Brooklyn was a steal.  But after doing a bit of research, it looks like Bosh, McRoberts will not play for sure, and dwyane wade is questionable.  If dwyane wade was playing for sure, I would have still taken this pick because MIA tends to play well against Brooklyn and is the more aggressive team.  It's still not a bad pick though with this current lineup imo, but I don't want to take the risk.

GSW + 3.5 would be a great pick if Andrew Bogut was playing.  But I can't take the risk with Bogut not playing, because MEM has tough defense and has 2 major inside players in Gasol and Randolph against a wing dominant GSW team.  Expect a dog fight though.  Should be great game if GSW doesn't come out and just annilate MEM offensively and defensively.

I don't like any of the other lines either.

Stay tuned for tomorrow!

Cheers!