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Author Topic: are you all watching?  (Read 8530 times)
proudhon
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June 09, 2012, 01:30:39 PM
 #101

New supply halves and demand stays the same (maybe even increases with the reward drop publicity). I say the price will go up at that time...but will it double?
I think so, then higher yet and then collapse back down to the doubling. Something like that anyway.

SolidCon proved this to be true.

I am cashing out at $10 for sure !

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.
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bulanula
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June 09, 2012, 01:38:38 PM
 #102

New supply halves and demand stays the same (maybe even increases with the reward drop publicity). I say the price will go up at that time...but will it double?
I think so, then higher yet and then collapse back down to the doubling. Something like that anyway.

SolidCon proved this to be true.

I am cashing out at $10 for sure !

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

With all the FUD brought about by the reward change I would expect much higher than that.

beckspace
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June 09, 2012, 01:47:53 PM
 #103

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

Careful, bears tend to hibernate once a year.

You guys have really come up with somethin'
miscreanity
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June 10, 2012, 12:53:10 AM
 #104

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.
proudhon
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June 10, 2012, 01:19:04 AM
 #105

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

I very strongly doubt that.  The market is much more mature than that.  By that I mean that there will be too much profit taking as the price goes up this time around, which will keep the price down.  I suspect it will be many, many years before bitcoin reaches the previous high.  I don't think what I'm saying is negative; I did at one time, but now I believe very slow growth is a good thing.
dree12
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June 10, 2012, 01:24:24 AM
 #106

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.
We can assume the market is rational. Therefore, if the price is currently 5.50 $ USD, then the probability of a cataclysmic event will be almost 95%.

It's fine to be slightly bullish: assuming a cataclysmic event has a 5% chance in the next year, we can get to $6 without irrationality. But at this point, the only reason for $100 is irrationality.
notme
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June 10, 2012, 01:27:15 AM
 #107

We can assume the market is rational.

Since when has this been a valid economic assumption?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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adamstgBit
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June 10, 2012, 01:50:02 AM
 #108

We can assume the market is rational.

Since when has this been a valid economic assumption?

Since Bitcoin!  Cheesy

weex
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June 10, 2012, 07:17:21 AM
 #109

We can assume the market is rational.
Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.


ineededausername
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June 10, 2012, 08:58:40 PM
 #110

We can assume the market is rational.
Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.



Bitcoin technical analysis: 100% backed by hand traced log chart trend lines!

(BFL)^2 < 0
dree12
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June 10, 2012, 09:35:55 PM
 #111

We can assume the market is rational.
Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.
If that's your expected price, act on it. It should be rational to use all your free income and savings on that, with an expected interest rate of almost 200% per annum.
proudhon
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June 10, 2012, 09:47:22 PM
 #112

We can assume the market is rational.
Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.
If that's your expected price, act on it. It should be rational to use all your free income and savings on that, with an expected interest rate of almost 200% per annum.

Exactly!  Lately lots of people have been talking as if the price is very likely to go into the double digits in the next year, but there's very little evidence of anyone acting like that in the market.  I'm speculating that the price will go up in the next year, but not by that much; and I still think a year from now we'll be in the single digits.  I am buying smallish amounts every few weeks ($200-$300 worth), and that's because I do expect the price to break $6 in the next year, and that's still an exceptional return.  But again, if you sincerely believe that there's a strong chance that the price will be in the double digits a year from now, then take out second mortgage on your house.
miscreanity
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June 10, 2012, 10:27:31 PM
 #113

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.
I very strongly doubt that.  The market is much more mature than that.  By that I mean that there will be too much profit taking as the price goes up this time around, which will keep the price down.  I suspect it will be many, many years before bitcoin reaches the previous high.  I don't think what I'm saying is negative; I did at one time, but now I believe very slow growth is a good thing.

While I agree that it would be desirable to have steady growth, that isn't likely at all for the mere fact that Bitcoin is presently at the scale of a sparrow flying through a hurricane. It will be buffeted heavily during the foreseeable future.

Of course it's easy to expect profit-taking to keep the price in check, because you're looking at growth from within the Bitcoin economy. For the next several years, 'growth' will be a marginal impact. External influence, especially the transfer of wealth which is occurring now and can bee seen with capital depositing excess during the ebb and flow of funds, will be a far greater factor than the Bitcoin economy in isolation.

To rephrase: it is not the Bitcoin economy that is experiencing phenomenal growth (on a scale that matters); it is traditional economies that are contracting, resulting in capital seeking any out that it can find. As this happens, Bitcoin will simply be recognized more often as a better alternative than yet another poorly-managed government currency.

Maturity of a market can only do so much when it is completely overwhelmed. Bitcoin is minuscule compared to many of the smallest companies that are publicly traded on traditional stock exchanges. Should an established currency market begin utilizing Bitcoin, no amount of maturity will prevent disruption.
proudhon
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June 10, 2012, 10:48:25 PM
 #114

Of course it's easy to expect profit-taking to keep the price in check, because you're looking at growth from within the Bitcoin economy. For the next several years, 'growth' will be a marginal impact. External influence, especially the transfer of wealth which is occurring now and can bee seen with capital depositing excess during the ebb and flow of funds, will be a far greater factor than the Bitcoin economy in isolation.

I don't see any evidence of a current movement of transferring wealth into bitcoin.  Nor do I expect to see bitcoin recognized as a good alternative by the wider community over the next few years.
cloon
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June 11, 2012, 12:41:48 AM
 #115

looks like you just entered the depression mode


donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
herzmeister
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June 11, 2012, 12:46:26 AM
 #116

...while the rest is in "Hope" mode  Cheesy

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
cloon
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June 11, 2012, 01:11:13 AM
 #117

...while the rest is in "Hope" mode  Cheesy
haha  Tongue

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miscreanity
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June 11, 2012, 05:44:32 AM
 #118

I don't see any evidence of a current movement of transferring wealth into bitcoin.  Nor do I expect to see bitcoin recognized as a good alternative by the wider community over the next few years.

Maybe you aren't looking...

This transfer of wealth doesn't have to happen intentionally, although it is quite evidently taking place at an awareness fringe that gold held prior to 2007. Instead, the 'unconscious' transfer is quite capable of spurring major change by itself.

An example:

A Bitcoin neophyte decides to try this thing he's heard about, so he buys USD$10 worth on an exchange. He buys something for $8.50 and thinks it's kind of interesting. Unless he is completely against Bitcoin, and obsessive about having every penny accounted for, he may simply leave the remaining $1.50 worth of bitcoins at the exchange or in his wallet.

Each wave of new interest that comes along is likely to leave some small amount, either without realizing it or with the thought that it might be used again at some later date. Since it's nearly impossible to realistically gauge new interest in the Bitcoin environment, we can only speculate. It's still reasonable to assume this does happen to some degree.

If 1% of each new wave leaves transfer residue, that accumulates over time. Let's assume that each individual in a wave of new interest buys 1 BTC (this isn't too accurate, since price rise will reduce the amount bought). We'll start at 1,000 individuals for the first wave and increase it by an order of magnitude for each new wave. In addition, we'll assume that 1% of deposits remain as transfer residue.

WaveIndividualsXResidueAggregate
11,0001010
210,000100110
3100,0001,0001,110
41,000,00010,00011,110

It's easy to see how a geometric (viral) wave propagation can rapidly expand the magnitude of wealth transfer - and this isn't even including whales or the effects from several other dynamics, especially capital controls.
adamstgBit
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June 13, 2012, 01:58:09 AM
 #119

This data was obtain using a highly sofiscated piece of C++

Code:
#include "Future.h"

int main
{
 BTC::SetDate(3294857023485);
 BTC::DrawChart();
}

outputs:



 Cheesy

the joint
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June 13, 2012, 02:06:00 AM
 #120

Um...data from the future?

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