First thing you should do is stop using bitcoincharts.com as prediction source, as they are unable to count in hashrate which is 'younger' than 2016 blocks and always start at 0%. If we accept that last 1008 blocks hashing speed can be used to predict next difficulty, then further adjusting is necessary by amount shown by arrow in the picture below ( the distance between blue line and red difficulty line)- currently about 7% when using conservative estimate from nextdifficulty.com.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FntpYTFs.jpg&t=665&c=xBz7CmnBbIOvkw)
I do it intentionally as it is a pure current rate based on now. I use bitcoinwisdom because they try to combine past data with current.
If you add my 2 numbers .2 and 12.8 you get 13 take the average you get 6.5 which is just about the same as 7%.
Nextdifficulty.com uses my method with a small variation. They weight the current number more.
@ seriouscoin
I actually like some of your posts and I have found some good info in them . but the cursing and insults to many people on the site can get over the top.
@ mavericklm while I don't think so If bitfury builds a .2 watt miner the network has more to grow. if they can build the so called .1 watt miner after that the network will grow more. their ability to make .1 to .2 watt miners cheaply will cause a lot of growth. of course no proof yet.
@ notlist3d thanks. the range is always large if the last growth was high.
current numbers
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/Blocks 328687
Total BTC 13.467M
Difficulty 39603666252
Estimated 39603518715 in 1937 blks
Network total 303747.263 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 6.55 / 550 s
This is negative growth at the moment about - .00025 %https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 39,603,666,252
Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,527,742,075 (+12.43%)
Adjust time: After 1937 Blocks, About 12.8 days
Hashrate(?): 291,391,703 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.9 minutes
Updated: 10:25 (4.3 minutes ago)
they have 12.43% plus rate
below are the last 10 jumps from June 29 to Nov 5 this is 129 days and represents the end of the s-1 and the beginning of the s-3 from antminer.
or the end of the 2 watt miner and the beginning of the .8 watt miner. This was the last big drop for power and it did truly start slower growth in diff.
Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
this article was brought up in my last thread by xstr8guy
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140915005202/en/BitFury-Announces-Technology-Roadmap-Sustained-Industry-Leadership#.VFpDpaUeaufhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=832808.msg9439564#msg9439564If they do produce these miners there will be more growth , but the timeline will be slower then the fourth quarter of JAN for the .2 watt gear.
and slower then June 30th 2015 for the < .1 watt gear.
All these asic builders have to watch out for zen/gaw miners hashcoin launch . This launch is a direct attack at BTC and zen/gaw has a lot of money behind them.
I am thinking if it does well BTC will suffer in price a lot.
https://hashcoin.com/I have 3 threads on zen
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=698679.0;allhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=743152.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=790207.msg8905466#msg8905466I have under 500 usd invested with them at the moment.
https://hashtalk.org/but they are a hustling company with a lot of wall street money and venture capital. (Cantor Fitzgerald IIRC)
They could hurt BTC if they launch correctly. If so bitfury would have sunk a shitload of money into .2 watt gear for nothing.
My guess is all the asic guys are going to hold off on BTC mining growth for their data centers.
If hashcoin is a bust they will then point the .2 watt gear at the btc network. so the .2 watt storm if it can really happen will be late winter of 2015 say feb 2015 not dec 2014.
This is a spec thread in the spec section have fun with it.