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tvbcof
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June 05, 2012, 11:26:47 PM
 #21


Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.

"...at any moment there might be a special bulletin from the Ministry of Peace. The news from the African front was disquieting in the extreme. ..."

 - Orwell


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miscreanity
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June 06, 2012, 12:50:13 AM
 #22

What most have considered a cautionary tale, others have recognized as prophecy.

The end result remains the same.
tvbcof
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June 06, 2012, 01:03:56 AM
 #23


Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.

"...at any moment there might be a special bulletin from the Ministry of Peace. The news from the African front was disquieting in the extreme. ..."

 - Orwell

What most have considered a cautionary tale, others have recognized as prophecy.

Some aspects of our present condition when compared Orwell's material are so striking that I have to wonder if the story has been used as something of an inspiration to certain segments of our leadership.

Whatever the case, comparing the book against reality (and especially as reality evolves) is one of the more chilling and awe-inspiring things I can think of off-hand.


finway
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June 06, 2012, 03:30:32 AM
 #24

Sure it will. See FedWire News.

minorman
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June 06, 2012, 06:51:47 AM
 #25

Post growth economy is a myth Smiley

Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
 prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).

No, the myth is that exponential growth can continue:
 http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

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Ukigo
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June 06, 2012, 07:21:45 AM
 #26

Your link gimme this usefull info :

Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
notme
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June 06, 2012, 07:23:11 AM
 #27

Your link gimme this usefull info :

Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.


Works fine for me... also WTF is "productability"?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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adamstgBit
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June 06, 2012, 08:12:07 AM
 #28

Post growth economy is a myth Smiley

Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
 prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).

I agree, with the current financial system, an economy that does not grow is doomed. And because the current financial system isn't going anywhere, economic growth is only going to go faster and faster, and we'll kill the F'in planet in the process...

Oh well... we tried!
 
i find interesting how you say "Soon (years) technological progress will resume"

your right we should wait for technological progress to allow us to grow in a sustainable manner .... ( never gana happen -_- )

i think the biggest technological challenge in the next 100 years, will be figuring out how to feed 1 trillion people.... could we maybe PRINT more MONEY? or right no more F'in trees! damn it Cheesy

we are soooo fucked  Wink



buy some bitcoins today, let it symbolize your anger toward the financial system that has played a key role in the destruction of ourselves

miscreanity
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June 06, 2012, 08:58:47 AM
 #29

No, the myth is that exponential growth can continue:
 http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/

Phenomenal post! Thanks for sharing Smiley

we are soooo fucked  Wink

Not at all! As Murphy suggested at the end of the discussion, future economies and growth will be unrecognizable.

Quote from: Tom Murphy
It’s not growing GDP, growing energy use, interest on bank accounts, loans, fractional reserve money, investment. It’s a whole different ballgame, folks. Of that, I am convinced. Big changes await us. An unrecognizable economy.

The way Bitcoin is structured allows for development/growth (to use Murphy's terms) in a way so totally foreign to contemporary views that any lack of a deep understanding leads people to think it's a scam, when a decade from now we'll be laughing at how anyone could've even entertained that thought.

There's also a historical pattern in which slowing or stagnant growth builds pressure until a new direction for growth breaks out. Going the 'space cadet' route means it's likely that humanity will approach the limits possible on Earth, then expand outward from there - like the surface area of the light bulb to a body, activity from Earth will spread to other planets.

As long as we don't send ourselves into oblivion first Smiley
Ukigo
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June 06, 2012, 09:30:16 AM
 #30

Your link gimme this usefull info :

Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.


Works fine for me... also WTF is "productability"?
Sorry for my burnt English  Smiley

I mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workforce_productivity

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
notme
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June 06, 2012, 09:31:06 AM
 #31

Your link gimme this usefull info :

Error 403
We're sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ on this server.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also i have not said about EXPONENTIAL growth,
but about rise of productability due to progress and innovation.


Works fine for me... also WTF is "productability"?
Sorry for my burnt English  Smiley

I mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workforce_productivity

Have you been able to access the article yet?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Ukigo
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June 06, 2012, 09:43:09 AM
 #32

Quote
i think the biggest technological challenge in the next 100 years, will be figuring out how to feed 1 trillion people....
I respectfully disagree here :
IMHO the biggest challenge for future "powers that be" will be
" How to deal with huge crowds of bored people, that does not need to work
 for food and shelter ?!? "
-------------------------------------------------------------

@notme
No, something prevents me from this
Maybe they block all russian IPs or ...

I suppose very top-secret info there  Smiley

I do know about the fact that mathematically
ANY exponential growth is unsustainable longterm

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realnowhereman
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June 06, 2012, 09:48:02 AM
 #33

The mistake in the "exponential economic growth is impossible" is assuming that growth of an economy is the same as growth in resource use.

For example; it used to be that gold plating on computer boards was 200nm thick.  Now it's more like 2nm.  For exactly the same resource use the economy can have grown by 100 times.

The resources needed to make a computer in the 1960s were enormous, just in terms of weight.  Now we regularly carry around miniature computers that can lap 1960s computers and yet weigh hardly anything.  The computer in my pocket, in fact, is more powerful than the desktop computer I owned 10 years ago and yet uses a tenth of the resources needed to build it.

Farmland is more productive per acre than it has ever been.  The power needed to light our houses is shrinking rapidly.  Our televisions are bigger and brighter, and yet weigh less and use less power.  There is no reason to suppose that this process won't continue, eventually resulting in the energy use per person dropping, but economic growth continuing.  As resources become scarce, the economic incentive to find cheaper alternatives increases.  We can already see this happening -- as the price of fossil fuels is increasing, the relative cost of solar panels is coming down (so much so that the US has enacted import restrictions on Chinese panels (morons) to protect their overpriced domestic producers) while at the same time huge efforts are being made to increase their efficiency.  Solar panels are just an example, fusion, biofuels, and recycling are all industries becoming more and more viable as energy demand goes up and fossil fuel supply goes down.

Population growth rates drop the richer the population becomes.  You can't simultaneously argue that energy use per capita will go up while claiming the population that is currently poor will remain poor.  As the third world gets richer, they will use more energy per capita but birth rates will go down (just as they have in the developed world).

The physicist was arguing with a bad economist.  Further, the physicist was bad too (invoking thermodynamics in a non-closed system like the Earth was pretty bad form; and is exactly the trick that the creationists try and pull); arguing that thermodynamics means we'll boil while completely ignoring the fact that the likely source of any future energy will be the Sun's rays -- which fall on the Earth regardless of whether we use them to power our electric coffee pots or not.  Finally, he limits his admittance of efficiency improvements to small refinements; that's not how it happens.  What actually happens is a technological leap (thermionic valves to transistors for example) that completely changes the game -- he admits that but then completely ignores the implications.

Growth can, counter-intuitively, equal less resource use.  It is the fact that resources become more expensive as the demand for them rises that is driving this more efficient use.  

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Fuzzy
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June 06, 2012, 09:51:46 AM
 #34

Quote
i think the biggest technological challenge in the next 100 years, will be figuring out how to feed 1 trillion people....
I respectfully disagree here :
IMHO the biggest challenge for future "powers that be" will be
" How to deal with huge crowds of bored people, that does not need to work
 for food and shelter ?!? "

I bet my bitcoins it'll be a food shortage problem, considering we're eroding and poisoning the very bottom of the food chain. You can desalinate water with sun power, but people don't live very long if all they have to eat is processed garbage.
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June 06, 2012, 09:55:08 AM
 #35

the US has enacted import restrictions on Chinese panels (morons) to protect their overpriced domestic producers)

Very interesting, can I get a source on that?
Ukigo
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June 06, 2012, 10:00:50 AM
 #36

@Fuzzy

Nanorobots will completely solve the problem of Earth pollution
say 50 years from now  Wink

I am not kidding.

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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June 06, 2012, 10:01:36 AM
 #37

For Ukigo: http://www.yrral.net/phys-vs-econ.txt

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Ukigo
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June 06, 2012, 10:03:26 AM
 #38

Thanks, Notme !
-----------------------------
About "finite" supply of "fossil fuel" :
"
It's a start ,because crude ISN'T fossil,but a natural product of planet earth , a high-temperature, high-pressure continuous reaction between calcium carbonate and iron oxide ,two of the most abundant compounds making up the earth’s crust. This continuous reaction occurs at a depth of approximately 100 km at a pressure of approximately 50,000 atmospheres (5 GPa) and a temperature of approximately 1500°C, and will continue more or less until the ‘death’ of planet earth in millions of years’ time. The high pressure, as well as centrifugal acceleration from the earth’s rotation, causes oil to continuously seep up along fissures in the earth’s crust into subterranean caverns, which we call oil fields. Oil is still being produced in great abundance, is a sustainable resource and right now there is a GLUT..

Further is the related CO2 story a HOAX.we need more of this life bringing gas ,not less,but we as humans can't do anything.

Every price [of oil] above 50 USD is FRAUD."

This quote was taken from
http://www.marketwatch.com/community/doubledutch/comments/story, page 20

Doubledutch is very smart guy, and i believe, that he have read this stuff
in some scientific magazine ...




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June 06, 2012, 02:33:28 PM
 #39

the US has enacted import restrictions on Chinese panels (morons) to protect their overpriced domestic producers)

Very interesting, can I get a source on that?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/business/energy-environment/us-slaps-tariffs-on-chinese-solar-panels.html

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June 06, 2012, 11:45:44 PM
 #40

Very interesting discussion. Indeed continuous exponential growth is not possible. For any closed system you reach physical limits. We will pass to a post-growth economy soon enough.



BTW... The ECB left things unchanged.

On the exponential growth thing... I have often wondered but never reached any conclusions about whether you can have economic growth forever (exponential or not). My gut feeling is no, but I will pose some questions that cause me indecision:

Can you have continual growth in services?

The thing with services is, you don't just need more people to provide more service. You can also have growth in quality of service. In this sense, it would seem possible for eternal growth to not only be possible, but a part of the human condition to always improve.

I think we're not going to move from a growth-based economy to a 'stable' economy, but rather from a product-heavy economy to a service-heavy economy. This will better facilitate the 'endless growth' that seems so desirable.

But as I say, I'm still really undecided on this issue.
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