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chodpaba
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June 04, 2012, 07:26:30 PM
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Hexadecibel
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June 04, 2012, 07:30:53 PM
 #2

What's QE?
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June 04, 2012, 07:34:25 PM
 #3

What's QE?
Quantitative easing

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June 04, 2012, 08:06:03 PM
 #4

I'm just putting this out there.

There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.

Do I think gold and BTC will keep pace with the USD? Yes I do.

If I am correct we will continue to see an erosion of USD as a percent of BTC trading volume. Currently 74% as reported by Bitcoincharts. And a concomitant reduction of Gox's market share as it is largely driven by USD volume, currently 61%.  

first you say this will mean everyone will want to use USD
then you say we will see less USD / BTC trading volume

please explain

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June 04, 2012, 08:49:00 PM
 #5

The fed is already easing.

As for the fed officially announcing additional easing and the media labeling it QE3.  Yup that will happen too.
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June 04, 2012, 09:40:11 PM
 #6

I just made a quantitative easing..   

I almost should've named it.... whew..

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June 04, 2012, 10:55:49 PM
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I'm betting you are right on this one.

It is refreshing to see your post replete (relatively speaking) with some markers which could be used to gauge the hypothetical projection.


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June 05, 2012, 07:01:20 AM
 #8

FRS still can announce QE3 -- but, not before Aug 1st.
Probab. is LOW, however.
But Fed is desperate ...

On the other side -- major part of easing have been done by other Centrobanks so far
was possible ONLY through creation huge swaplines between them and FRS.

So, extending QE by other CBs will further extend these megaswaps.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Eventually, all members of the game will fail together as a whole.


"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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June 05, 2012, 07:47:52 AM
 #9

It will eventually fail entirely as we move to a post growth economy. But in the mean time there's always Africa...
when you put it like that, its hard not to see it all fall to pieces.

well put!

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June 05, 2012, 08:15:41 AM
 #10

Post growth economy is a myth Smiley

Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
 prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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June 05, 2012, 08:54:19 AM
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Post growth economy is a myth Smiley

Soon (years) technological progress will resume
and take ww economy further,
 prob. with even greater speed than China recently
-- even measured in sound currency (not fiat).
-------------------
Of cause , if humans will not try WWIII with nuclear "bombing accidents" ...

I hold that we humans are a lot more similar to bacteria than we are different.  Once we run low on energy we'll start to die off.  When we do see an economic boom it will likely follow a significant population reducing incident.  We saw a similar scenario following the black plague for instance.  Growth happens as we fill up to the carrying capacity of the environment, and it looks to me like we are getting close.  Even if not, a glance at the exponential nature of various curves indicates that it won't be terribly long when measured in time anyway.


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June 05, 2012, 09:12:33 AM
 #12

All the Fed has to do is sit on its hands.

Everyone else will ease.

All the fed has to do is make sure Oil can only be bought with USD. That's their thumb, if you will, and the whole world is under it.
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June 05, 2012, 06:56:52 PM
 #13

There will be no direct QE from the Fed, but it will be done through the back door of inflating currencies other than the USD. Because, their aim is not to create a net inflation for the USD, but for all the world's currencies as a whole. The net effect will be the world chasing after USD.

Yes.

First, funds are loaned via swap agreements:
Fed($)->Banks

Banks on the receiving end lever up through FRB:
Banks($)*X->($$$$$$$$$$)

Then initial funds are returned, but the levered funds remain:
(X)Banks($)->Fed

The difference between the two can be multiples of the initial funding made available:
(X)=($$$$$$$$$$)-($)

The end result is that fractional reserve fuel is provided for local/regional currency inflation (e.g. Euros):
Banks($$$$$$$$$)->Euros

The process begins all over again from the swap agreements. As the world ramps up its base monetary supply, the dollar remains relatively stable by comparison because the same amount of dollars are repeatedly lent out, so dollar value rises versus other currencies. That keeps going until strain develops at a sufficient level and the dollar finally has to be eased, which is where we are now.

This indirect form of QE has been continuously ongoing, and even accelerating. It's hard to say what form of direct QE we'll see, but it will be before the end of the year. The dollar will then sharply decline relative to other currencies and the inflationary cycle will repeat again.
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June 05, 2012, 07:49:06 PM
 #14

So, what do you think this means for Bitcoin?

I maintain that there will be a continued erosion in the percent of USD/BTC share and so a continued erosion of Gox's overall market share. Which I think it good for Bitcoin.

The dilution of USD is a global effect, and I think inevitable that it's being reflected in the Bitcoin environment. Definitely a good thing for Bitcoin - increasing global mindshare with decreasing USD-exclusive exposure means that Bitcoin will be on the receiving end of wealth flows from multiple sources.

Gox may see a similar decrease in USD flows, but the overall BTC market share depends much more on policy. The recent AML/KYC moves have been very discouraging.
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June 05, 2012, 08:28:16 PM
 #15

Actually, I would expect the opposite effect with greater proportional dilution of the USD compared with other currencies. The scenario I have put forth assumes a relatively strong USD. Which is also essential for the US to push its AML/KYC agendas globally.

In what market do you expect USD will be diluted, traditional markets, or Bitcoin? I see a spillover effect from USD to other currencies. In looking at the overall trend formed by the cyclical dollar strength patterns, I agree that the dollar will be diluted more than others (in both traditional and Bitcoin markets), largely because of its periods of relative strength and compliance efforts.
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June 05, 2012, 08:35:59 PM
 #16

The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.

Not sure which economy will pick up the slack when it tanks, the european maybe but not likely, my guess would be the far east. For all we know, it could be a domino effect taking one out after another.

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cytokine
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June 05, 2012, 08:55:15 PM
 #17

The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.

The day that treasury rates begin to rise is the beginning of the end.

I don't know what the new reserve currency will be, but the dollar's last stand will be during the current debt crisis. Then it will go the way of the sterling IMO.
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June 05, 2012, 09:14:21 PM
 #18

The USD will die.

You must be new to this whole "American Backed Dollar" thing.

So long as the USA has an army and a choke hold on the worlds oil supply, the USD isn't going anywhere.
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June 05, 2012, 09:26:15 PM
 #19

The USD will die, by the hands of the federal reserve, we just need to count down the days. Manipulation of economies is what they do best...
It has already lost its world reserve currency holding, its all downhill from here.

The day that treasury rates begin to rise is the beginning of the end.

I don't know what the new reserve currency will be, but the dollar's last stand will be during the current debt crisis. Then it will go the way of the sterling IMO.

Nah, exploitation of African resources can keep this zombie limping along for another few decades.

they will do everything and anything to keep the current system alive

theirs no reason it should fail... the rules can be changed.

miscreanity
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June 05, 2012, 10:58:18 PM
 #20

By 'dilution' I take it that you mean 'inflation'. I do not expect the USD to inflate (hyperinflate) more than currencies as a whole. In the short term it will inflate less, which is part of the Fed's strategy. As we face diminishing growth, and post growth, the debt based markets will surely crumble. The Fed will use the IMF and other means to funnel wealth to US interests.

Oh I was using dilution in regard to global usage of the dollar, not monetary inflation. Much like the Gox share of BTC trading has declined (dilution of the market by number and quality of competitors eroding Gox' share), usage of the USD around the world is declining relative to other currencies. Inflation is one reason for that decrease in usage.

Nah, exploitation of African resources can keep this zombie limping along for another few decades.

Look for a lot of stories in the upcoming news about 'investment' in Africa. The Asian story is so last decade.

Questions arise: to what extent will exploitation occur vs long-term productive enterprise, and by whom? Exploitation tends to result in difficulties later on, making continued exploitative activity more costly than more equitable ventures. Africa has been on China's & South American nations' radar for some time, with a lot of wealth engaged in such long-term dealings.
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