[Daily Speculation Poll] :: Is bitcoin a risky invesment ?

[anu]

Bitcoin is high risk.

Good that there are alternative. German Government Bonds, for example. Guaranteed 0% interest and guaranteed monetizing of debt, little risk of default. This is my winner for this month. Low risk. Guaranteed loss.

[1714112081]

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[cytokine]

Yes it is risky, but the upside is nearly unlimited.

[floeti]

Does outlawing Bitcoin still sound easy?

What about surveillance with the help of ISPs? What about banning tunneling-techniques for private end-users?

[anu]

Does outlawing Bitcoin still sound easy?

What about surveillance with the help of ISPs? What about banning tunneling-techniques for private end-users?

Does that mean I can't log in to my customer's network via VPN just because i am a contractor?

[Rygon]

If governments made it illegal for banks to do business with companies that specialize in trading bitcoins, it would certainly be a big stumbling block for bitcoins. Denying that fact is silly. Banks will follow the law, the MtGox, Intersango, etc won't be able to open up real world bank accounts with which to transmit tens (or hundreds) of thousands of dollars a day in and out of. The exchanges in their current form would cease to exist.

Now, there are plenty of other options for exchanges, but laws like the one above would make it so the "Average Joe" would have a difficult time getting started on Bitcoin.

One option, as previously mentioned, is an exchange that trades bitcoins for commodity money that can't be regulated as much as fiat money. An exchange that solely used silver and gold, for instance. Of course, shipping around silver in order to get bitcoins would add risk for more people, and require them to be knowledgeable about several currency types.

[miscreanity]

What about surveillance with the help of ISPs? What about banning tunneling-techniques for private end-users?

That hasn't worked so well with I2P & Tor - and those are just the two most popular darknets. Deep packet inspection isn't effective for detecting properly encrypted tunnels, and is incapable of operating outside of its own network reach. Encrypted traffic can be made to look like HTTPS and a direct connection can be avoided by adding proxies.

[tvbcof]

What about surveillance with the help of ISPs? What about banning tunneling-techniques for private end-users?

That hasn't worked so well with I2P & Tor - and those are just the two most popular darknets. Deep packet inspection isn't effective for detecting properly encrypted tunnels, and is incapable of operating outside of its own network reach. Encrypted traffic can be made to look like HTTPS and a direct connection can be avoided by adding proxies.

Effectively hiding would necessitate a lot of bandwidth overhead (my theory mostly) which means that whatever traffic one wishes to transfer better be a smallish fraction of what one uses.  Streaming porn might be a good carrier.

Secondly, it might take balls of steel to risk getting caught if the penalty is being hauled off to some work camp somewhere.

While these are theoretical issues at this point, and probably will remain so, they are not improbably enough to completely ignore.   IMHO.

[tvbcof]

Does outlawing Bitcoin still sound easy?

What about surveillance with the help of ISPs? What about banning tunneling-techniques for private end-users?

Does that mean I can't log in to my customer's network via VPN just because i am a contractor?

I would conjecture that VPNs and similar solutions for secure communications might be authorized to be run only by licensed operators (and that part of the licencing requirements would include a functional back-door for what's known as lawful intercept.)

I also suspect that one may need to establish identity via bio-metrics or some other fool-proof method prior to being able to access the internet at all.  It'll be sold as big brother's helpfulness in overcoming the problems of identity theft and stopping those bad bad terrorists and the massive amounts of kiddie porn hiding out in the ether.  And I figure that it will be massively popular with the sheeple.

I'm not saying that such things are eminent or certain, but it does seem to me very possible that attempts in those directions will be made.  In conjunction with draconian penalties they probably could be fairly effective.  Certainly enough so to put a damper on so-called 'intellectual property theft' which is driving corp/gov crazy and something like Bitcoin in it's current implementation.

[anu]

I would conjecture that VPNs and similar solutions for secure communications might be authorized to be run only by licensed operators (and that part of the licencing requirements would include a functional back-door for what's known as lawful intercept.)

I also suspect that one may need to establish identity via bio-metrics or some other fool-proof method prior to being able to access the internet at all.  It'll be sold as big brother's helpfulness in overcoming the problems of identity theft and stopping those bad bad terrorists and the massive amounts of kiddie porn hiding out in the ether.  And I figure that it will be massively popular with the sheeple.

I'm not saying that such things are eminent or certain, but it does seem to me very possible that attempts in those directions will be made.  In conjunction with draconian penalties they probably could be fairly effective.  Certainly enough so to put a damper on so-called 'intellectual property theft' which is driving corp/gov crazy and something like Bitcoin in it's current implementation.

Any of this is plausible and may be required in any legislation. But when it comes to Bitcoin, it's quite easy to find a legal solution to get rid of if or pervert it:
Just add a requirement that VAT & friends can be processed in real time:
http://bitcoinmedia.com/the-brave-new-world-of-mobile-payment/
This would IMHO take care of Bitcoin, without even targeting it. It would force the payment providers to implement an RTPay gateway.

[tvbcof]

Any of this is plausible and may be required in any legislation. But when it comes to Bitcoin, it's quite easy to find a legal solution to get rid of if or pervert it:
Just add a requirement that VAT & friends can be processed in real time:
http://bitcoinmedia.com/the-brave-new-world-of-mobile-payment/
This would IMHO take care of Bitcoin, without even targeting it. It would force the payment providers to implement an RTPay gateway.

Interesting read.  Thanks!

[dreamwatcher]

I voted low risk, but I see it more low-medium risk.

I see the world economies on the verge of economic crash unlike anything we have see.

Fiat currency ,reserve systems and fractional banking are all unsustainable systems in themselves and almost every country in the world uses at least 2 with major economies having all three (Reserve system).

I believe the "official" push-back against bitcoin is because TPTB, want to have their "new" currency to take hold as soon as possible after they have completely sucked the current systems dry.

Bitcoin is currency TPTB cannot effectively control and as soon as more people have knowledge of bitcoin and have seen through the BS propaganda, it will appear more attractive and its use will grow exponentially.

If not bitcoin, some form of currency based on the principles of bitcoin will take hold.

Just my .002 Btc...take or leave it...

[miscreanity]

Any of this is plausible and may be required in any legislation. But when it comes to Bitcoin, it's quite easy to find a legal solution to get rid of if or pervert it:
Just add a requirement that VAT & friends can be processed in real time:
http://bitcoinmedia.com/the-brave-new-world-of-mobile-payment/
This would IMHO take care of Bitcoin, without even targeting it. It would force the payment providers to implement an RTPay gateway.

Yes and no. As always, what we end up with will be more complex than it appears. There is an incentive structure that makes Bitcoin appealing no matter what stigma is projected on it.

Very similar to tax havens and countries friendly to international business corporations or trusts, there will be regions that openly offer the flexibility and freedom to use Bitcoin without backlash. Much discussion has been made about how Bitcoin reduces 'friction' in finance. When benefits and 'a better way of doing things' become apparent, they will eventually be adopted even in spite of opposing pressure.

There might always be VAT and government interference, but legislation can only delay or mask beneficial ideas and practices. No gathering of politicos can wave their collective magic fountain pen wands and make Bitcoin disappear any more than they've been successful at making Bittorrent vanish, because time is not on their side.

[anu]

There might always be VAT and government interference, but legislation can only delay or mask beneficial ideas and practices. No gathering of politicos can wave their collective magic fountain pen wands and make Bitcoin disappear any more than they've been successful at making Bittorrent vanish, because time is not on their side.

Agreed, Bitcoin would not go away. But the use of exchanges would be difficult, maybe impossible. If all money is electronic and all transactions are known by the government through something like the RTPay gateway, then you can't do an illegal transaction without getting caught immediately.

This setup would make Bitcoin the choice of payment for any illegal transaction, but also any transaction which might be legal, but people prefer not to leave a paper trail. On second thoughts, this may even help Bitcoin grow, but it would push it into a niche where we don't want it.

[miscreanity]

On second thoughts, this may even help Bitcoin grow, but it would push it into a niche where we don't want it.

Who's 'we'?

[anu]

On second thoughts, this may even help Bitcoin grow, but it would push it into a niche where we don't want it.

Who's 'we'?

Very obvious, isn't it? It's the group of people who doesn't want Bitcoin to be limited to only illegal business. I count myself to that group. Therefore I say 'we'.