[FREQUENTLY UPDATED] Ichimoku Cloud Analysis of Bitcoin

[BTC.sx]

Can you predict exactly when you think it will go up, and by how much?

No that is impossible. This analysis simply suggests that we are now at the start of a bull run.

But will you hodl?

Of course!

On a serious note, do you think it'll pass $420 anytime soon? Bought a little too high like a nub

We do not like to give out investment advice and encourage our traders to think for themselves. However, if this bull trend sticks, $420 should be reached soon.

Painstakingly professional. I like it.

Will check you guys out soon. Take care and good luck with your business.

Thanks! Good luck hodling

[PopTarts]

Moon time yayayayaya!

[BTC.sx]

UPDATE:
Right now is a time to stay bullish but be vigilant. The price is back in the cloud which is warning of a change of trend.
Price has held support and stayed in the cloud. Indicators like RSI point to staying bullish. Cloud Span A has crossed Cloud Span B in the cloud ahead which is a bullish sign as well.

The Standard Line(BLUE) has crossed through the cloud to the upside which should resolve price as bullish. Price is in a congestion zone and using caution right now is probably best as we wait to see which way price resolves itself.

[segeln]

Thanks,BTC.sx
please Continue, Ichimoko Cloud is very interesting

[alexeft]

UPDATE:
Right now is a time to stay bullish but be vigilant. The price is back in the cloud which is warning of a change of trend.
Price has held support and stayed in the cloud. Indicators like RSI point to staying bullish. Cloud Span A has crossed Cloud Span B in the cloud ahead which is a bullish sign as well.

The Standard Line(BLUE) has crossed through the cloud to the upside which should resolve price as bullish. Price is in a congestion zone and using caution right now is probably best as we wait to see which way price resolves itself.

The price of bitcoin (and bitcoin itself for that matter) has always been in the "cloud" my friend!!!
It can't exist anywhere else!!! 
 

[r0ach]

Whether the original poster is right or wrong, this was a typical loot and pillage Wall Street view of markets, or how to try and make a quick X percent and bail out to fiat as fast as possible.  I tried to do the opposite in the following post and address Bitcoin's possible store of value within the new few years, as store of value is really the most important aspect concerning Bitcoin's future:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=837260

Having said that, I will say the common man's complaint of Bitcoin being a "Ponzi scheme" does have some merit, if you replace the word Ponzi with pyramid, but any centrally controlled system is the same difference.  It's just a pyramid with a house beneficiary vs a pyramid without one.

[BTC.sx]

Price has penetrated into the cloud and is now stuck in it.

It has tested support and held thus far. But it is a time to be cautious and the evidence is leaning bearish. If we break through support in the 350-357 zone. Time to short it. Other indicators need to improve or it looks like a false breakout occurred. Now is a time to be vigilant.

[BearWhaleLives]

I am shorting already. And will continue to do so until we hit a low of $150 in December 

[big ears]

Price has penetrated into the cloud and is now stuck in it.

It has tested support and held thus far. But it is a time to be cautious and the evidence is leaning bearish. If we break through support in the 350-357 zone. Time to short it. Other indicators need to improve or it looks like a false breakout occurred. Now is a time to be vigilant.

How low could the price sink if we break through support in the 350-357 zone?

[inca]

The shorters will never learn!

[TrollinU]

The shorters will never learn!

And hodlers never got it from the start

[marvinrouge]

So now everyone is agree we're going down.

According to the Rule of Maximum Pain : everyone is always wrong.

What is maximum pain right now?

option A. Loooooong serie of unpredictable jumps and drops until nobody knows what's going on and lose all his BTC with bad trades

option B. Big rise, too fast to get into (maybe not now... only when everyone will be sure we gonna fall in the abyss)
bonus : when everyone is aboard, we realize it's a dead cat bounce and the truth is we are going down again

[poncom]

So now everyone is agree we're going down.

According to the Rule of Maximum Pain : everyone is always wrong.

What is maximum pain right now?

option A. Loooooong serie of unpredictable jumps and drops until nobody knows what's going on and lose all his BTC with bad trades

option B. Big rise, too fast to get into (maybe not now... only when everyone will be sure we gonna fall in the abyss)
bonus : when everyone is aboard, we realize it's a dead cat bounce and the truth is we are going down again

The Rule of Maximum Pain sounds similar to Murphy's Law.

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

[SmoothCurves]

So now everyone is agree we're going down.

According to the Rule of Maximum Pain : everyone is always wrong.

What is maximum pain right now?

option A. Loooooong serie of unpredictable jumps and drops until nobody knows what's going on and lose all his BTC with bad trades

option B. Big rise, too fast to get into (maybe not now... only when everyone will be sure we gonna fall in the abyss)
bonus : when everyone is aboard, we realize it's a dead cat bounce and the truth is we are going down again

The Rule of Maximum Pain sounds similar to Murphy's Law.

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

Fixed: Whatever can go happen will happen.

[marvinrouge]

So now everyone is agree we're going down.

According to the Rule of Maximum Pain : everyone is always wrong.

What is maximum pain right now?

option A. Loooooong serie of unpredictable jumps and drops until nobody knows what's going on and lose all his BTC with bad trades

option B. Big rise, too fast to get into (maybe not now... only when everyone will be sure we gonna fall in the abyss)
bonus : when everyone is aboard, we realize it's a dead cat bounce and the truth is we are going down again

The Rule of Maximum Pain sounds similar to Murphy's Law.

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

Same result but there is a difference : Murphy's law is based on false impressions.

Rule of Maximum Pain has a real base : 80% of the traders are doing bad trades and 20% take the money. So what 80% of us find likely will be always the bad choice.

[mymenace]

So now everyone is agree we're going down.

According to the Rule of Maximum Pain : everyone is always wrong.

What is maximum pain right now?

option A. Loooooong serie of unpredictable jumps and drops until nobody knows what's going on and lose all his BTC with bad trades

option B. Big rise, too fast to get into (maybe not now... only when everyone will be sure we gonna fall in the abyss)
bonus : when everyone is aboard, we realize it's a dead cat bounce and the truth is we are going down again

The Rule of Maximum Pain sounds similar to Murphy's Law.

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

Same result but there is a difference : Murphy's law is based on false impressions.

Rule of Maximum Pain has a real base : 80% of the traders are doing bad trades and 20% take the money. So what 80% of us find likely will be always the bad choice.

the most logical thought yet 80% of people are wrong in their prediction

 if they yell sell then buy if they yell buy then sell

if it is quiet hodl

[coinableS]

Update? It would be nice to see if we're moving above the cloud

[oda.krell]

Depends on where we close tonight, but we're at the upper end of it at the moment.




(colored line is close price)


TBH, I'm never quite sure how to read Ichimoku, and whether I trust it or not. For example, is the recent retest of the cloud after we closed above a bearish signal (probably yes), or is the fact that we found support inside the cloud during the retest a bullish signal (probably yes as well). I guess I just can't put the pieces together yet in the case of Ichimoku.

[bucktotal]

i certainly wouldn't trust an indicator if i just clicked the show/hide button with no thought into the input parameters and how they shape the outcome. it just ain't that easy.

[BTC.sx]

The key word of the last week has been whipsaw. This term is applied in trading circles when the price head’s in one direction, and then is quickly followed by a movement in the opposite direction.

The price of Bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and is whipsawing all over the place. A few simple words here: traders beware. It is time to be vigilant and wait for the price to resolve it itself one way or the other and form a trend before putting money to work.

The chart below shows how hard it has been to predict the price movement as we have moved from bearish to bullish back to bearish and are now back in the cloud.

Right now price is bumping up against the top of resistance and a break through would be a bullish signal. The Lagging Line, which is the slowest of the Lines, has yet to pierce into the cloud and confirm a bullish move; if it does, that should mean we are seeing a bullish transition forming.



Based on recent trading it would be prudent to look at other indicators to confirm the move. The chart below shows some indicators we will use to get confirmations in the event that price breaks resistance.

The RSI is in bullish zone despite the recent downturn and is has plenty of room to run if the price confirms to the upside. Money Flow has been very bullish and continues to be so, as money has continued to come into Bitcoin despite all the volatility in price.

MACD is close to crossing over, which would trigger a buy signal. What’s even more significant is that MACD is now in positive territory when making the cross over, so this is another potential bullish signal.

On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending at a low level — an upside move in price should be confirmed with a rising OBV. Using other indicators to confirm is essential when analyzing charts particularly when we are in a period of uncertainty and waiting for signals to trade.



Conclusion

We don’t have any definite trading signals as price has created a false breakout followed by a false breakdown. The price is now back in the cloud and rubbing against resistance. The weight of the evidence leans bullish and if price confirms, a buy signal will be triggered.

In the meantime, there is no need to rush into a trade. The price will tell us what we need to know soon enough. A price closing above the resistance level of 383.23 (we are currently at 391) would put the price back in a bullish zone and generate a buy signal. A close below 352 would be a breach of support and a sell signal.

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