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Author Topic: Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%)  (Read 6461 times)
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philipma1957
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November 28, 2014, 09:59:05 PM
 #41

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase!  Shocked


 too many days away  to really know, but it moved to (-0.65%) about  40,037,572,339

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 39807376875

this is (-1.22%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

39421642542  that is (-2.17%)

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November 29, 2014, 11:27:47 PM
 #42

To be honest, I've been watching the difficulty estimations change a little too much, and I'm convinced that all the sub 2% swings in the next estimated difficulty are just variance, plain and simple. Crossing my fingers, though, I really want to see the diff drop. For once my payouts might... actually... increase!  Shocked
I agree, the very small changes in estimated next difficulty is likely variance in the network luck. Actual changes in difficulty of only ~2% would likely be that a net amount of miners would have been taken offline


 
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philipma1957
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November 29, 2014, 11:33:41 PM
 #43

 well with 3 days left we are still under  (-0.38%) at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

but a jump to +2 in the next 3 days would not surprise me.

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November 30, 2014, 07:13:00 AM
 #44

well with 3 days left we are still under  (-0.38%) at https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

but a jump to +2 in the next 3 days would not surprise me.

Generally weekends are lull periods in new hashrate.

Though there could be a 5%+ jump in the following difficulty adjustment with the bulk pricing spondoolies and bitmain have for the weekend

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November 30, 2014, 07:20:48 AM
 #45

Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,346,152,265 (+0.11%)
monday will tell us more Undecided
philipma1957
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November 30, 2014, 12:24:21 PM
 #46

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

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November 30, 2014, 05:45:50 PM
 #47

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell.  With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.   

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump.   I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.
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November 30, 2014, 07:03:49 PM
 #48

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell.  With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.    

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump.   I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

yeah .55 to .57 watts on underclock will really allow for  long use.

With my higher  power costs I need to get efficient gear.    

BTW I grabbed a third sp20.

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November 30, 2014, 07:49:50 PM
 #49

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell.  With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.   

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump.   I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

even so, its virtually impossible to see 15%+ jumps happen many more times without an increase in BTC value. Its infeasible for people to routinely add that much to thier farms without rapidly hitting thermal or power limits and needing to rely on cloudmining or find a dedicated location. I think we will see
+0.2% this increase
+10% next
+6% after
+ 2% after, followed by a few more small increases unless hardware prices or bitcoin value changes

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461 also selling 6" M-F-M PCIe splitters and PCIe-PCIe
No longer a wannabe - now an ASIC owner!
philipma1957
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November 30, 2014, 08:19:21 PM
 #50

spondoolies sp20's have been shipping the bitmaintech coupons had to help sell the s-4's.  So 1 or 2% jump looks pretty sure right now.

I purchased 2 sp20's and kind of want to get one more. I know I am not the only one doing this.

I expanded aswell.  With winter weather hard to pass up cheap/free cooling.    

It will be the big centers that really give us a jump.   I thought they would wait till next gen, but the SP gear appears to have quite the lifespan with it's underclock. Guess time will tell.

even so, its virtually impossible to see 15%+ jumps happen many more times without an increase in BTC value. Its infeasible for people to routinely add that much to thier farms without rapidly hitting thermal or power limits and needing to rely on cloudmining or find a dedicated location. I think we will see
+0.2% this increase
+10% next
+6% after
+ 2% after, followed by a few more small increases unless hardware prices or bitcoin value changes


close to my thoughts..  
+1
+6
+5
+2

same reasoning as you.  

for me I max at 4-5k watts in the winter


2-3k watts in the summer well 1.5-2.5k watts in the summer

home miners like me must be less then 20% of the network.

 



but even big  (5ph or more)  guys would be morons to expand  if they are turning profits now.  

the only way is  they get a cheap 0.1 watt machine.  

by cheap;

 cheap to build not cheap quality.


todays numbers are


(+0.13%) about  40,353,975,917

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

some are lower
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

has it at 40285785777

this is (-0.035%)

http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate

       40039972197     that is (-0.645%)


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December 01, 2014, 04:10:32 PM
 #51

Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes
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December 01, 2014, 05:53:19 PM
 #52

Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes

yeah whatever it is tomorrow


 -1 to +1  are good numbers coin price is around 381 also good.



numbers are so good the jump will not be on the 1st it will be on the 2nd of dec.

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December 01, 2014, 05:57:36 PM
 #53

Estimated Next Difficulty:    40,248,300,290 (-0.13%)
i think i stress myself too much Roll Eyes

yeah whatever it is tomorrow


 -1 to +1  are good numbers coin price is around 381 also good.



numbers are so good the jump will not be on the 1st it will be on the 2nd of dec.

I will be happy welcoming a 1 percent jump.   Wish they were all so low.  I don't think we will see negative, but I hope I'm wrong.
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December 01, 2014, 06:08:15 PM
 #54

Some big players are changing equipment
enjoy it as long as it lasts...
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December 01, 2014, 06:44:34 PM
 #55

Some big players are changing equipment
enjoy it as long as it lasts...

I am.  and I am also converting s-3's to sp20's on a smaller scale.

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philipma1957
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December 02, 2014, 05:24:04 PM
 #56

winding down to the finish.  and it is dec 2 not dec 1  and that is always good as it means a low jump or no jump at all.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   >>>>>>>>>(-0.28%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,185,906,820 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 6.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   300,279,521 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (3.0 minutes ago)



http://www.bitcoincharts.com      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.41%)


Blocks   332603
Total BTC   13.565M
 
Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40133512214 in 37 blks
 
Network total   307199.681 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 563 s

Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to : 1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr
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December 02, 2014, 05:26:40 PM
 #57

winding down to the finish.  and it is dec 2 not dec 1  and that is always good as it means a low jump or no jump at all.  also price is around 383 usd not bad.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   >>>>>>>>>(-0.28%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   40,185,906,820 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:   After 37 Blocks, About 6.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   300,279,521 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   12:20 (3.0 minutes ago)



http://www.bitcoincharts.com      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-0.41%)


Blocks   332603
Total BTC   13.565M
 
Difficulty   40300030328
Estimated   40133512214 in 37 blks
 
Network total   307199.681 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.39 / 563 s

Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to : 1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr
I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 02, 2014, 05:54:24 PM
 #58

So about -0.35% unless 100PH was added right this minute. I'm pretty damn happy about this, considering most of my profitability calculations made 3-6 months ago were assuming 4-7% jumps at this point in time.

I think the next jump may be fairly big though with the influx of the black Friday deals by bitmain and spondoolies. it's likely that each company sold 5-10 PH during that sale

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461 also selling 6" M-F-M PCIe splitters and PCIe-PCIe
No longer a wannabe - now an ASIC owner!
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December 02, 2014, 06:49:43 PM
 #59

So about -0.35% unless 100PH was added right this minute. I'm pretty damn happy about this, considering most of my profitability calculations made 3-6 months ago were assuming 4-7% jumps at this point in time.

I think the next jump may be fairly big though with the influx of the black Friday deals by bitmain and spondoolies. it's likely that each company sold 5-10 PH during that sale

well I grabbed 3x  sp20's that will be about 4th underclocked and about 2190 watts

I know that at least 1000 s-3's and s-4's sold I could figure the exact number looking at btc addresses.



I know at least 2000 btc was sent to spondoolies  addresses that is 1000 sp20's.  I looked at this address


https://blockchain.info/address/15QTGigFgnMpqcg5tQwBszQ94me98ZTVkr      and  some others .

 So to think 10ph will add in the dec 2 - dec 14 diff period is reasonable.  but 10ph is now 1/30 of the network so that is 3% jump.  My hope is under 5/6% for the next jump.

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December 02, 2014, 08:13:47 PM
 #60

Around 3 hours till change on btcwisdom: 40,047,488,260 (-0.63%). Will be a interesting few hours.

I think some of the S4's might be on the network already.  I think the SP20's will be brand new  on network over blackfriday sales.  We will see I'm hoping less then 5 percent on next jump.
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