The new bearwhale: US Marshals

[finder_keeper]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

[Torque]

Depressing that this market is still so tiny, and so little demand, that relatively little money can still "peg" an exchange rate until someone decides differently.

[finder_keeper]

Given the very shallow depth of the market, a prospective bidder who intends to create the illusion of a low market price can easily depress it by selling just a few hundred coins at strategic moments. From a Game Theoretic point of view, it makes sense for all prospective bidders to act independently to artificially keep the price low so that all the other prospective bidders wouldn't bid the price up too high for the big 50K coin prize.

On the other hand, they don't want to push the market down too low because then some other prospective bidder will just buy them out at the lower price.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

Well it's speculation founded on a kernel of truth
The last auction with Tim Draper did result in a price increase
(That said we speculated a decrease)
So he-he who knows what will happen this time around.

[fewcoins]

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

[GreenCoin22]

they are not new, they always be from confiscating bitcoins of skill road

[MistuhSoftee]

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

I'm not saying this would happen but assuming you were some sort of fund manager:

1. buy 50k coins on the cheap, depressed value
2. pump the market up after you've acquired the big stash
3. book a 'unrealized profit'
4. pay yourself based on the huge unrealized gains.

Wall street does this all the time

[FinTech.sx]

Even after they sell this lot, they still have a good amount left over. It seems to me that someone inside the US Marshalls office knew that this was coming and has been driving the price down on the markets over the past few months. It wouldn't surprise me if there were a number of questionable individuals within the government that are using their inside information to trade.

[MemoryShock]

https://twitter.com/?lang=en

That's a lot of BTC ahead of the auction...

[btceuropen]

https://twitter.com/?lang=en

That's a lot of BTC ahead of the auction...

what mean the link of twitter?

[cbeast]

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

Have you seen the art auctions lately?

[MemoryShock]

https://twitter.com/?lang=en

That's a lot of BTC ahead of the auction...

what mean the link of twitter?

That's about 82 million worth of bitcoin...unless it was photoshopped, which I doubt...

[sniveling]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

The winning bidders only get notified they won on Friday and they have until Monday to pay. I'm wondering if we will only see a big movement after the weekend. It took a while for any real information to leak out last time and I doubt we will find much out until after the weekend this time.

[FUR11]

I actually am kind of worried that we might see some depressing action after the auction is finished. Coindesk just published a rather convincing argument why the coins may go at a significant discount off of the market price: http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/

[wobber]

US Gvt thanks all the losers that put their Bitcoins into centralized sites like MtGox and SilkRoad 1, Silkroad2 and Silkroad 9000.

All those losers enabled the USG to have the largest wallet in their possession.

[Joe200]

I actually am kind of worried that we might see some depressing action after the auction is finished. Coindesk just published a rather convincing argument why the coins may go at a significant discount off of the market price: http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/

Another indication that the coins will sell ABOVE market. Citi is lying to try to fool other potential bidders.

My prediction: "buy the rumor, sell the news". Once the coins sell, the price will rise.

When is the 90k coin auction? Anyone know?

[RodeoX]

I wonder to what extent this brings in new money? I Know Draper was not a new, but a wealthy person who wants to try bitcoin may be better able to understand the bidding process than the exchanges.

Or, you know, I could be wrong also. 

[NotLambchop]

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

Have you seen the art auctions lately?

US Marshals auctions possess the pomp and prestige so sorely lacking in Christie's and Sotheby's.
The fabulocity of being seen amongst society's creme de la creme is so worth the premium, dahling!

[inca]

How can you even think a auction would bring the price anywhere but down?!

You really are desperate aren't you. It is seeping out of every comment you make lol.

[traderCJ]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.