The new bearwhale: US Marshals

[Notanon]

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

[traderCJ]

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance.  When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected.  You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market.  We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price.  It will come and go without much fanfare.

So you're saying this stabilization will continue even after the winners are announced Dec 5th?

In my opinion, if there is a prolonged downward movement tomorrow, it will not be the result of the auction winners being announced.

[yefi]

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

200K coins under the trusteeship of Kobayashi, dealing with the bankruptcy proceedings of a company owing fiat.  

[Torque]

There's really no difference between this and institutional bulk purchases of commodities, like gold for instance.  When the Chinese government imports gold, the spot price of gold is only indirectly affected.  You don't see immediate spikes in the paper market.  We can debate this all night, but I'm just saying that there is a very low probability that this coin auction will result in any noticeable change in price.  It will come and go without much fanfare.

So you're saying this stabilization will continue even after the winners are announced Dec 5th?

In my opinion, if there is a prolonged downward movement tomorrow, it will not be the result of the auction winners being announced.

Agreed.

In the last SR auction, we had prices temporarily depressed from 600 to around ~540 or so.  It was blatant manipulation just for the auction.  Then after the auction was over, the exchange rate started to quickly climb back up.  Everyone cheered, believing that the winner paid way over market price and that the market was reacting accordingly.

Then you know what happened after, and here we are today at 370.

So the auction will have no significant effect in either reversing a downtrend, or starting/confirming a new uptrend.

[sniveling]

Am I right in thinking it started about an hour ago and finishes in about five hours?

[Kupsi]

Am I right in thinking it started about an hour ago and finishes in about five hours?

Yes.

[Notanon]

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

200K coins under the trusteeship of Kobayashi, dealing with the bankruptcy proceedings of a company owing fiat.  

Hmm, ok. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

[sniveling]

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

200K coins under the trusteeship of Kobayashi, dealing with the bankruptcy proceedings of a company owing fiat.  

Hmm, ok. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Is there any definite court date for the MtGox case yet or are they still mulling over it?

[Kupsi]

Should be the last obstacle to get the price going back up again, unless another Mt.Gox-style episode happens with something else like Coinbase or another exchange where the coins get hacked.

200K coins under the trusteeship of Kobayashi, dealing with the bankruptcy proceedings of a company owing fiat.  

Hmm, ok. Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

Is there any definite court date for the MtGox case yet or are they still mulling over it?

Creditors have until May 29, 2015 to file proofs of claims. The date for investigation of the claims is September 9, 2015.

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140728_announcement.pdf

[yayayo]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

+1

Look at all the new comers panicking prior to the 50k BTC auction.

Yeah, although I think the magnitude of drama is declining, which is concerning...

Prediction: Market will spark a "relief"-rally after the auction/payment is over.

I hope the government gets rid of all their coins as soon as possible before the next Bitcoin rise...

ya.ya.yo!

[NotLambchop]

^Plenty more where that came from.
And if the 90k starts 2 run dry, "the government" will pwn more of your coin & sell it back 2u.

[freedomno1]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

It's the day of the auction things will start getting interesting very soon
One way or the other
Just my speculation

[sniveling]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

It's the day of the auction things will start getting interesting very soon
One way or the other
Just my speculation

The winning bidders don't even get notified until tomorrow and they have until Monday to pay. We'll be lucky if we get given any results before Monday, if at all.

[freedomno1]

I think we are not going to see a big movement until after the Dec 4 auction.

Or, you know, I could be wrong.

-- FK

It's the day of the auction things will start getting interesting very soon
One way or the other
Just my speculation

The winning bidders don't even get notified until tomorrow and they have until Monday to pay. We'll be lucky if we get given any results before Monday, if at all.

True enough, might get some people commenting on their bid amounts before that
We don't have the bid list either this time but it still makes for some interesting price speculation either way until the results are published for the public to see.

[picolo]

Given the very shallow depth of the market, a prospective bidder who intends to create the illusion of a low market price can easily depress it by selling just a few hundred coins at strategic moments. From a Game Theoretic point of view, it makes sense for all prospective bidders to act independently to artificially keep the price low so that all the other prospective bidders wouldn't bid the price up too high for the big 50K coin prize.

On the other hand, they don't want to push the market down too low because then some other prospective bidder will just buy them out at the lower price.

You could succeed push the price lower with a few thousands bitcoins but risking to have the market move against you if people are pumping it with thousands of bitcoins at the same time.
A few hundreds bitcoins is not enough to start a bear market!

[NotLambchop]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling.  To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see:  http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and:  http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

See?

[fewcoins]

^ Because everyone knows the great technology from bitcoin will be stolen for something that is cheaper to mint (mine)

[Biro Bob]

^ Because everyone knows the great technology from bitcoin will be stolen for something that is cheaper to mint (mine)

 ....because a coin thats cheap and easy to mine will have more value? Right?

Sorry - you lost me here!

[traderCJ]

If the purchase is made off-exchange, how exactly would this auction directly affect the market?  It's not like the buyer is going to turn around immediately and dump the coins he just bought.

Why not?

So you're suggesting that the coins will auction for less than market value, taking slippage into account?

Slippage works both ways, buying and selling.  To avoid arguing the obvious, let's just say I'm in the majority.

see:  http://www.coindesk.com/citi-ross-ulbricht-bitcoins-likely-sell-discount-usms-auction/
and:  http://www.coindesk.com/usual-suspects-return-bid-latest-us-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

See?

See what?

[NotLambchop]

^"Overall, the number of registered bidders decreased 75% from the first auction, while the number of bids fell 57%."
The theory that exchange prices were being manipulated down by prospective bidders also has [predictably] turned out to be bunk.

I realize denying grim facts is a thing in trashy melodrama--a women clings to her freshly-shot lover, screaming "Oh no no you can't be dead no God no etc., etc."  This effective dramatic device falls flat, tho, when voiced by a d00d named traderCJ--an interweb money changer about to become a poor interweb money changer.

TL;DR: give it up, bro.