Butterfly Labs ASIC Gear Potential

[davidspitzer]

If i run through the various calculator simulations for the upcoming 1 TH/s Server they announced I get some impressive numbers. It seems to me the first few to the table will be in a position to realize sizable profits during the short Window while the world transitions to ASIC's

If I look at BTC Pool for example their average pool speed is about 1178 GH/s which is only slightly above the advertised throughput of one (1) of the Butterfly labs 1U servers. (at least that's what it appear to me. I may have made some wrong calculations/assumptions)

What are your thoughts?

[BlackBison]

That 'announcement' is a total joke. To be honest I had a neutral opinion on BFL before today, but after reading that I am very concerned (supposing that news article is genuine).

Even if such rigs were soon to be available- who would possibly release them at those prices?? Must be a joke of a company any way you interpret it. Just imagine Intel or AMD releasing such a 'revolutionary' product and pricing it at super low prices like that.. just doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever.

HUGE red flag

[davidspitzer]

That 'announcement' is a total joke. To be honest I had a neutral opinion on BFL before today, but after reading that I am very concerned (supposing that news article is genuine).

Even if such rigs were soon to be available- who would possibly release them at those prices?? Must be a joke of a company any way you interpret it. Just imagine Intel or AMD releasing such a 'revolutionary' product and pricing it at super low prices like that.. just doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever.

They have also posted the information on their website - It certainly seem like their intend is to sell the gear at the prices they quoted. I heard an analogy of them wanting to be like Microsoft and own the market and that could perhaps account for the aggressive price point. Also cheaper technology is constantly emerging that completely rewrites the landscape at times. Perhaps this is that moment for Bitcoin.

[BlackBison]

Yea cos Microsoft took over the world by releasing the cheapest product so they could 'own the market'.. oh wait..

But hey at least now Apple are the largest company in the world by releasing the leading next gen portables at bargain basement prices so they can 'own the market'.. oh wait..

/sarcasm off

Either:
1) these guys are straight up full of shit, or
2) they can't be trusted to run the company properly if they are posting prices like that on a game changing product, with such a massive demand in the market right now for such devices.

Take your pick.

PS: apologies for the tone of the first 2 lines of this reply, I couldn't resist  

[Vladimir]

IMO they are just bluffing

[fatigue]

It may have a ton of potential, but even at the prices quoted, the newfound hashing power and difficulty will alienate many of the casual miners who make up a good portion of the mining power to date. It simply won't be worth it anymore to mine for 7 days and get a few bitcents at best.

[BCMan]

IMO they are just bluffing

Really? I thought you totally believed in this "press release".

[davidspitzer]

Yea cos Microsoft took over the world by releasing the cheapest product so they could 'own the market'.. oh wait..

But hey at least now Apple are the largest company in the world by releasing the leading next gen portables at bargain basement prices so they can 'own the market'.. oh wait..

/sarcasm off

Either:
1) these guys are straight up full of shit, or
2) they can't be trusted to run the company properly if they are posting prices like that on a game changing product, with such a massive demand in the market right now for such devices.

Take your pick.

PS: apologies for the tone of the first 2 lines of this reply, I couldn't resist  

I'm not sure I can agree with your conclusions based solely on the information we have. Amazon sells kindles at a loss in order to capture the ebook market. I don't think any of us can say whether BFL are making a profit on the new gear at this point in the game. Exponential performance gains does not always mean a corresponding increase in prices.

Apple does sell on quality but almost every time they introduce a faster shinier model they slip it in at the same price point. I think the new gear from BFL is the start of a new watermark in price/performance for bitcoin mining.

It may be disappointing for those who have invested in GPU mining but such is the nature of a technology driven market.

[davidspitzer]

It may have a ton of potential, but even at the prices quoted, the newfound hashing power and difficulty will alienate many of the casual miners who make up a good portion of the mining power to date. It simply won't be worth it anymore to mine for 7 days and get a few bitcents at best.

My thought though is that the first to be able to take advantage of the near gear will have a quantum advantage in the market for a short period of time. It is in this window I think that one could realize significant profits while the rest of the field and difficulty etc caught up

[imsaguy]

It may have a ton of potential, but even at the prices quoted, the newfound hashing power and difficulty will alienate many of the casual miners who make up a good portion of the mining power to date. It simply won't be worth it anymore to mine for 7 days and get a few bitcents at best.

My thought though is that the first to be able to take advantage of the near gear will have a quantum advantage in the market for a short period of time. It is in this window I think that one could realize significant profits while the rest of the field and difficulty etc caught up

Its that short window that someone could also do something very malicious.

[davidspitzer]

It may have a ton of potential, but even at the prices quoted, the newfound hashing power and difficulty will alienate many of the casual miners who make up a good portion of the mining power to date. It simply won't be worth it anymore to mine for 7 days and get a few bitcents at best.

My thought though is that the first to be able to take advantage of the near gear will have a quantum advantage in the market for a short period of time. It is in this window I think that one could realize significant profits while the rest of the field and difficulty etc caught up

Its that short window that someone could also do something very malicious.

Yes you are right, but I swear to only use my power for good

[cmg5461]

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

[BCMan]

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Yep.

[davidspitzer]

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

What would be the alternative. It is akin to one arguing to not buy a new breed of race car because it will outperform any other car on the track and make them obsolete. The field will level over time and people will most likely abandon GPU mining and eventually FPGA mining as they did with CPU mining.

[seriouscoin]

Yea cos Microsoft took over the world by releasing the cheapest product so they could 'own the market'.. oh wait..

But hey at least now Apple are the largest company in the world by releasing the leading next gen portables at bargain basement prices so they can 'own the market'.. oh wait..

/sarcasm off

Either:
1) these guys are straight up full of shit, or
2) they can't be trusted to run the company properly if they are posting prices like that on a game changing product, with such a massive demand in the market right now for such devices.

Take your pick.

PS: apologies for the tone of the first 2 lines of this reply, I couldn't resist  

I'm not sure I can agree with your conclusions based solely on the information we have. Amazon sells kindles at a loss in order to capture the ebook market. I don't think any of us can say whether BFL are making a profit on the new gear at this point in the game. Exponential performance gains does not always mean a corresponding increase in prices.

Apple does sell on quality but almost every time they introduce a faster shinier model they slip it in at the same price point. I think the new gear from BFL is the start of a new watermark in price/performance for bitcoin mining.

It may be disappointing for those who have invested in GPU mining but such is the nature of a technology driven market.

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

[rjk]

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

What's your point? BFL doesn't have an app store, they only sell hardware.

[davidspitzer]

Yea cos Microsoft took over the world by releasing the cheapest product so they could 'own the market'.. oh wait..

But hey at least now Apple are the largest company in the world by releasing the leading next gen portables at bargain basement prices so they can 'own the market'.. oh wait..

/sarcasm off

Either:
1) these guys are straight up full of shit, or
2) they can't be trusted to run the company properly if they are posting prices like that on a game changing product, with such a massive demand in the market right now for such devices.

Take your pick.

PS: apologies for the tone of the first 2 lines of this reply, I couldn't resist  

I'm not sure I can agree with your conclusions based solely on the information we have. Amazon sells kindles at a loss in order to capture the ebook market. I don't think any of us can say whether BFL are making a profit on the new gear at this point in the game. Exponential performance gains does not always mean a corresponding increase in prices.

Apple does sell on quality but almost every time they introduce a faster shinier model they slip it in at the same price point. I think the new gear from BFL is the start of a new watermark in price/performance for bitcoin mining.

It may be disappointing for those who have invested in GPU mining but such is the nature of a technology driven market.

Idiot, Amazon dont make money on selling hardware. They make money on services ....aka selling books thro Kindle.

Appl doesnt make money on your I-products... They make money on App Store.

BFL loves idiots like you.

/thread

There is no need to call me names  - I am trying to engage people in a thoughtful discussion.

[Vladimir]

IMO they are just bluffing

Really? I thought you totally believed in this "press release".

Perhaps you thought wrong.

[davidspitzer]

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

[cmg5461]

They will make a lot of money back during that short window, but no where near the cost of the device. I believe, by buying this equipment, we're all just shooting each other in the foot.

Why do you think people will not make their money back. If you are one of the first to the table (timing is crucial here I think) mining at 1TH/s should recoup your $30,000 pretty quick even if the reward is halved to 25 and the difficulty starts to ramp up. Like I said calculations may be wrong but it does seem like their is an opportunity here

Considering they will release more then one at once.  Global hashrate doubles, you'll make half your guess with 1TH/s.  1 week goes by (2016 blocks found) and difficulty increases astronomically.  Goodluck!