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Author Topic: Mining difficulty rate!!  (Read 12346 times)
JJG
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May 20, 2011, 05:34:02 PM
 #21

yeah I  know that its not supposed to be any kind of usable metric

but I can't deny the fact that my reward per round has gone down in a very real and noticeable way since the difficulty jump.

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.
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Gameover
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May 20, 2011, 06:26:28 PM
 #22

Is there a chart that shows difficulty rates plotted vs. dates of when the changed?
m4rkiz
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May 21, 2011, 09:07:59 PM
 #23

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.

more like 5 days
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May 21, 2011, 09:35:05 PM
 #24

Definitely. That's how the system is designed. Expect another big drop in ~9-11 days.

more like 5 days

You're talking about another difficulty increase? Already 2016 blocks have passed? Damn!

bittrader
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May 21, 2011, 10:10:06 PM
 #25

Is there a chart that shows difficulty rates plotted vs. dates of when the changed?

There are such charts here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
sir murray
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May 21, 2011, 11:37:07 PM
 #26

If the value of BTC doesn't change or decreases, how long before mining becomes wholly unprofitable? When is the next difficulty increase? How huge will it be? I'm generating pretty much half of what I used to by mining. If the advantages of mining depreciates, where is the incentive to do so for pools?
m4rkiz
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May 22, 2011, 07:48:13 AM
 #27

You're talking about another difficulty increase? Already 2016 blocks have passed? Damn!

simplest way is go to http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

there is some handy data there:

estimated difficulty - currently it is 360777

number of block left until difficulty change - 1294

and finally Blocks/hour ratio, which is currently 12.41

all you need to do is 1294/12.41 = 104 hours / 24 = 4 days and 8 hours until difficulty increase from current 244139 to est. ~360777
HudsonStan
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May 24, 2011, 06:37:58 AM
 #28

Next difficulty level will probably be 400k+
Mining is still too profitable to slowdown growth of network hashrate.

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May 24, 2011, 06:48:35 AM
 #29

I believe these numbers are correct:
Code:
            Difficulty     Average to win  Rise from previous
Previous:    157,416.40     1.13 Ghashes/s
Current:     244,112.48     1.75 Ghashes/s 55.07%
Next (est):  393,849.00     2.82 Ghashes/s 61.34%

If you are interested I got my raw historical data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash and the estimate next difficulty here: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ (at the top of the page - will happen in 789 more blocks as of the time of this post)

Update: Latest estimate is 394,778 in 768 more blocks.  You can always look here http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ to see the latest estimate.  It does look like it may exceed 400,000 by the time it happens.

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May 24, 2011, 06:05:52 PM
 #30

Here are some more numbers to ponder...

Code:
  Block            Ghashs/s  Network
 Number Difficulty   to win Thashs/s
------- ---------- -------- --------
114,912     68,978      494   0.5174
116,928     82,346      589   0.8061
118,944     92,348      661   0.6912
120,960    109,670      785   0.9677
122,976    157,416    1,127   1.4728
124,992    244,112    1,747   2.9360
next?      400,000    2,863   3.5692
next?      500,000    3,579   4.4615
?          600,000    4,295   5.3538
?          700,000    5,011   6.2461
?          800,000    5,727   7.1384
?          900,000    6,443   8.0307
?        1,000,000    7,158   8.9230

The Ghashs/s to win listed in this table does not get you a win.  It only gets you into the ballpark where you should be able to win some blocks.

Discouraging to me anyway.

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Chucksta
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May 24, 2011, 06:23:31 PM
 #31

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
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May 24, 2011, 06:27:07 PM
 #32

The only "bright spot" on the horizon is that it appears the world is running out of high end video cards (until they make some more).

Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security.  Read all about it here:  http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/  Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
Gameover
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May 24, 2011, 07:14:06 PM
 #33

Discouraging to me anyway.

I think you are way off on your next difficulty increase, its increasing exponentially, and given that there are millions of untapped GPUs just sitting idle there is absolutely no reason to believe it won't continue, that would put the next difficulty at 655,000 minimum and more likely 700,000.

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

I would guess its a matter of weeks, anyone who has spent money on a dedicated rig in the last few weeks is in for some hurt.

The only "bright spot" on the horizon is that it appears the world is running out of high end video cards (until they make some more).

There are many available if you look in the right places (not ebay), and don't worry, once the difficulty hits 1.2M in 20 days you will see more video cards on ebay than you ever have before Cheesy
acamus
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May 24, 2011, 07:17:28 PM
 #34

Wish I found out back when cpu mining was still an option. The good news is that if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Edit: should have used the quote feature, I was talking about what Gameover said here : "There are many available if you look in the right places (not ebay), and don't worry, once the difficulty hits 1.2M in 20 days you will see more video cards on ebay than you ever have before"

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
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smooth
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May 24, 2011, 07:18:17 PM
 #35

if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Correct, but why would you expect everyone to sell their cards?
acamus
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May 24, 2011, 07:31:08 PM
 #36

if everyone sells their cards difficulty may go down if I understand the process correctly.

Correct, but why would you expect everyone to sell their cards?


They could sell their cards for Bitcoins...

Now that is a big idea

Short Bitcoin  (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0) if you dare.
http://www.tradebitcoin.com/
http://oneminuteslow.com/bitcoin/100-20.png (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8895.0)
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Chucksta
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May 24, 2011, 07:54:50 PM
 #37

It looks like this gravy train has just a couple of months left till it's over, at best. At least for anyone who has to pay for their electricity.

I would guess its a matter of weeks, anyone who has spent money on a dedicated rig in the last few weeks is in for some hurt.


LOL, yeah, I was trying to be a bit optimistic. I've still got £200 pounds to go before my rigs are fully paid for, and am making £40 to £50 per day (1 BTC = $7, that is)... so I should get my money back before the profitable mining runs out..... pray

Definitely going to be a lot equipment out there sitting idle soon.
molecular
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May 24, 2011, 08:08:55 PM
 #38

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.

Price we pay? Guys, this is good for bitcoin. Makes us even harder to attack. It protects the value we have mined so far. Don't complain about new people getting in, they're helping the economy, spread the word and strengthen our security.

If difficulty was dropping... now that would get me worried.

I, personally, am not here to make a profit (I didn't even sell the bitcoins I would need to recover my miner cost), but am hoping to make the world a better place (however romantic/idealistic that might sound). Bitcoin is a money of (by and for) the people.

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Chucksta
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May 24, 2011, 08:13:51 PM
 #39

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.

Price we pay? Guys, this is good for bitcoin. Makes us even harder to attack. It protects the value we have mined so far. Don't complain about new people getting in, they're helping the economy, spread the word and strengthen our security.

If difficulty was dropping... now that would get me worried.

I, personally, am not here to make a profit (I didn't even sell the bitcoins I would need to recover my miner cost), but am hoping to make the world a better place (however romantic/idealistic that might sound). Bitcoin is a money of (by and for) the people.

Yeah, you said it comrade. Keep the red flag flying high  Wink
molecular
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May 24, 2011, 08:22:44 PM
 #40

Yeah, you said it comrade. Keep the red flag flying high  Wink

Hey, so I'm a capitalist communist? Cool!

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