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Author Topic: Mining difficulty rate!!  (Read 12337 times)
Kmitchell03
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May 18, 2011, 11:10:57 PM
 #1

Wow! The mining difficulty rate just jumped huge! was at like 154740 now is 244139!! Thats like a 60% increase! Please tell me it's an error...

http://deepbit.net/userbar/4dbf221e816197c1db000002_02e24acb5b.png (http://deepbit.net)

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BitLex
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May 18, 2011, 11:14:17 PM
 #2

it's an error (and this is a lie, but you asked for it)

bulanula
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May 18, 2011, 11:14:44 PM
 #3

LOL it is not.

Next will likely be 600 000.

Seems like somebody covertly got hold of some "magij mechanic" custom ASIC or FPGA solution in the recent days that vastly outclasses all of these improvised-miner ATI cards.

Eg just like how the cpu became obsolete so will the ati gpu become obsolete for mining but what if nobody shows us this custom ASIC Huh or maybe the gov. just wanted a share of the pie etc. ! who knows eh ?
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May 18, 2011, 11:17:59 PM
 #4

in fact, is true, check http://bitcoincharts.com, the difficulty is in 244139 :-|

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grndzero
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May 18, 2011, 11:22:09 PM
 #5

I was almost right, as sad as I am to say it. My prediction was 245,000-255,000. Much closer than the people thinking 200-210,000.

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May 18, 2011, 11:26:38 PM
 #6

well, in this situation is better buy bitcoins than make some mining... because the difficulty will grow more :-/... oh wait... the difficulty affect the value of the bitcoin?

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darvil
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May 19, 2011, 12:10:56 AM
 #7

ouch thats a big jump.

daily earning down alot too Sad 
cypherf0x
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May 19, 2011, 06:31:52 PM
 #8

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

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http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8987.0
bitjet
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May 19, 2011, 08:22:12 PM
 #9

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

care to cite this?
Dhomochevsky
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May 19, 2011, 08:30:22 PM
 #10

I don't think it's because of two clusters. They would need more than half the hashing power of the network during that particular cycle (roughly 1THps for both of them combined) in order to make the difficulty jump 60%. And that is rather far fetched.
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May 19, 2011, 09:01:58 PM
 #11

That's what happens when two FPGA clusters are added.

care to cite this?

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8543.msg125582#msg125582

I don't think it's because of two clusters. They would need more than half the hashing power of the network during that particular cycle (roughly 1THps for both of them combined) in order to make the difficulty jump 60%. And that is rather far fetched.

I really hope you're wrong, but...
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8543.msg125646#msg125646
MysteryMiner
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May 19, 2011, 10:47:20 PM
 #12

Now the odds for me getting one block is pretty small.

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ryepdx
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May 19, 2011, 11:20:43 PM
 #13

Now the odds for me getting one block is pretty small.

LOL.   Cheesy

As for all of you who have been freaking out about the jump, perhaps it wasn't as much of a jump as you thought:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7725.msg128908#msg128908

Looks like someone was able to predict the current number to within 0.36% about ten days ago.

Although I admit I'm a little fuzzy about how difficulty adjustment works. If the algorithm takes the average time over the whole two week period, then it might have been that cypherf0x's cluster didn't come online soon enough to greatly affect the overall average. If that's the case, we may be seeing an even bigger rise another two weeks from now, one that violates the approximate 2.5% rate of growth we've been seeing so far.
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May 19, 2011, 11:28:47 PM
 #14

those guys that were talking about the fpga clusters were talking speeds at multiple terahash/sec

if someone was getting those kinds of speeds we would start seeing the complete value, difficulty and everything else change completely


its a big jump but its expected, mining is profitable and people are sinking money into it, I doubt its any kind of government agency - BTC is getting big at a fast rate and this is the price we have to pay.
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May 19, 2011, 11:35:03 PM
 #15

I was expecting large jump, but not so huge.

I was expecting to get my block about now, predicted by bitcoin calc average. I am past the 50% chance.

For some people it is get rich scheme. They invest real money in GPU mining hardware, but forget that there is only 50BTC generated every 10 minutes, and in preset time the reward will decrease to 25BTC and so on. Pumping large power in network only makes the whole network stronger, the powerful miner will enjoy his sucess for maximum of 2 weeks.

Better invest something in the real market. Not many of us are ready to sell expensive items or services for BTC. Yet selling your old computer for BTC can be more rewarding than mining and hoarding bitcoins, because if everyone start to sell valuable items for bitcoins, the value will skyrocket.

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kjj
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May 19, 2011, 11:48:53 PM
 #16

The retarget process takes the rate that was appropriate a week (1008 blocks) ago and increases it by the amount necessary to make it appropriate a week (1008 blocks) from now.

The jump from the before block to the after is huge because it includes 2 weeks of growth in an instant.  In this case, about 3.5% daily growth.

If the global hashing pool had grown by a factor of 10 a day or two ago, it would have had nearly no effect on the current target.  Instead you'd have seen is a huge reduction in the mean block time, which has not happened.

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ryepdx
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May 20, 2011, 12:17:07 AM
 #17

Thanks for the explanation, kjj.
cablepair
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May 20, 2011, 12:46:50 AM
 #18

to put it into perspective


before the last difficulty jump I was getting about .17 .20 per round
now I am getting .13 .19 per round
approximately


that is mining with 1 g/hash

use the numbers to figure out what the difficulty jump means to you.
benjamindees
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May 20, 2011, 01:22:08 AM
 #19

"per round" is not any type of standard metric

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cablepair
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May 20, 2011, 05:31:25 PM
 #20

yeah I  know that its not supposed to be any kind of usable metric

but I can't deny the fact that my reward per round has gone down in a very real and noticeable way since the difficulty jump.
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