Why aren't I filthy rich yet? It's been like two months.

[miscreanity]

Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.

Yes, the slow and steady undercurrents are what will propel Bitcoin in relative obscurity, not the dazzling spike highs and emotionally-engaging news stories. Pandora's box has been opened - Bitcoin is an idea more than a thing, and now that the a good portion of the world knows about it, it cannot be stopped.

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[proudhon]

Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.

Yes, the slow and steady undercurrents are what will propel Bitcoin in relative obscurity, not the dazzling spike highs and emotionally-engaging news stories. Pandora's box has been opened - Bitcoin is an idea more than a thing, and now that the a good portion of the world knows about it, it cannot be stopped.

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea.

[Tuxavant]

And it's worth spreading for.

Sorry, had to do it. 

[Mageant]

I'm also super-bullish on Bitcoin.

But you have to realize that the masses don't really care about Bitcoin as long as there are established systems that work practically just as well, such as Paypal.

Currently, it's only the nerds and the bankers that are interested in Bitcoin.

What is needed IMHO for a breakthrough is some niche market that really profits a lot from using Bitcoin, such as money remittances.

[AndrewBUD]

It's a me Mario money



I think it will do well for some time My wife sees it as free money....Can't complain about free money

[FreeMoney]

Something I like to remember is that bitcoin makes a much better savings money than any government money ever and a better spending money than gold. That is a killer combination. It seems possible that in the very long run it will hold more value than all government money and all gold combined. Then after that there is the fact that the world's wealth tends to grow anyway so there will be more wealth to store. Then on top of that bitcoin will likely increase the rate of the growth of wealth in the world because it allows easier trade and more incentive to accumulate wealth to save.

[Stephen Gornick]

The one factor that will change this is awareness - spread the knowledge of Bitcoin.

I carry around a Casasius physical bitcoin and often get the opportunity to show it and use it as a prop to help describe what Bitcoin is.  I also carry a second Casascius bitcoin, opened revealing the private key (previously spent), which is useful to understand how bitcoin is just data that can be used with a mobile or online.

I also have in my wallet in my back pocket a few strips of paper ... each a paper bitcoin wallet from BitAddress:
 - http://www.bitaddress.org
I have funded these with 0.1 BTC and have given them out in the same spirit as the Bitcoin faucet.  I do keep a copy of the private key and let the recipient know to redeem the code in 30 days (e.g., using "redeem" QR scanner on Mt. Gox Mobile app for Android) otherwise I recycle the funds to a new paper wallet address.

Additionally, what helps bitcoin move forward to is actually use Bitcoin today like we expect it will be used in the future.  For instance:

Purchase wireless prepaid refills using Bitcoins (there are now or will be soon three sources for this):
 - http://www.bitmit.net/en/user/TangibleCrypto  (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Cricket, etc.) (to be branded as CellCoin.net )
 
 - http://www.btcbuy.info/CallingCards.cshtml

And coming soon:
 - http://www.bitcoinwireless.com  (from BitInstant)


Or pay for all NewEgg, Amazon, eBay, Barnes & Noble, etc. purchases using bitcoins:
 - https://www.spendbitcoins.com/convert
 - http://www.btcbuy.info/Default.cshtml


Offer to broker the trade of bitcoins for others (friends, family, neighbors, etc.).  If you already have a Dwolla and Mt. Gox account, for example, keep an amount of USDs at bay so that if someone wants bitcoins, you are prepared to help them (which, of course, expands the community and helps us all).  But make sure to impress upon them the need to get set up on their own for the next time.     Same thing goes for someone wanting to cash out -- you can leave an open offer to buy bitcoins.    There is a line though between doing this infrequently and not-for-profit versus someone acting as a money service business in which they might have restrictions (in many jurisdictions).

Learn the bitcoin economy, and what bitcoins can buy.  We all know about Alpaca socks.  But do you know about Bitcoin Deals, which has a catalog of more than a 100,000 products, from travel luggage to toilet tissue:
 - http://www.BitcoinDeals.com

Or did you know that in more than a half dozen cities bus/rail fare transit passes can be reloaded using bitcoins?
 - http://bitfare.org

The Trade page on the Bitcoin wiki continually sees new additions:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

Are there any "assets" at a bitcoin stock market which are interesting to you perhaps?  They aren't all mining endeavors.  Feed Ze Birds and ZipConf, for instance, are two issues whose success brings further commerce to bitcoin:
 - http://www.GLBSE.com

And Bitcoin doesn't have to be all business.  Do you have a buddy insisting your team isn't going to win?  There's an app for that:
 - http://www.BTCSportsbet.com
Or is there interest in the election?  Right now there is a bet with skewed odds on the chances who will win the presidential election:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=122
Or any number of topics:
 - http://www.BetsOfBitco.in

What it boils down to is, those holding bitcoins shouldn't just sit on them.  A position can be maintained at a steady level by spending bitcoins on goods and services and then replenishing the position to accommodate for that spending.  These actions help bitcoin businesses make it through this crucial period where the market might naturally not yet be large enough for the business to be viable.  But with each additional bitcoin used in commerce, these businesses can start to justify their existence.  Because the revenue stream for these endeavors is in bitcoins, they then use the proceeds and profits for spending and that spurs further economic activity.  Your spending has a multiplier effect in the bitcoin economy.

And a much wider bitcoin economy is what is needed to justify over the long term the exchange rate at a level anywhere near where it has risen to ($55 million "market cap", currently).

[AndrewBUD]

Great post ^

[SgtSpike]

Seems so simple, but I hadn't thought of looking at things from the perspective of market cap; and you're right, it is pretty remarkable.

Yes, the slow and steady undercurrents are what will propel Bitcoin in relative obscurity, not the dazzling spike highs and emotionally-engaging news stories. Pandora's box has been opened - Bitcoin is an idea more than a thing, and now that the a good portion of the world knows about it, it cannot be stopped.

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea.

Bitcoin - It's more than a thing, it's an idea about stuff.

[dancupid]

The one factor that will change this is awareness - spread the knowledge of Bitcoin.

I also have in my wallet in my back pocket a few strips of paper ... each a paper bitcoin wallet from BitAddress:
 - http://www.bitaddress.org
I have funded these with 0.1 BTC and have given them out in the same spirit as the Bitcoin faucet.  I do keep a copy of the private key and let the recipient know to redeem the code in 30 days (e.g., using "redeem" QR scanner on Mt. Gox Mobile app for Android) otherwise I recycle the funds to a new paper wallet address.

Giving away bitcoins is the way to do it - give someone some bitcoins and they will take the time to find out what it is they've just been given.
A large company could invest in bitcoins and then give some away as a QR code with whatever they are selling and the value of their initial investment would increase, simply becasue of the publicity they generated for bitcoin by giving them away.

[anu]

Why is Linux not used by everyone?

after all it is the superior product, and its FREE!

because my friend... because people are stupid.  

And I use vi you emacs sissy. 

[Spekulatius]

Why is Linux not used by everyone?

after all it is the superior product, and its FREE!

because my friend... because people are stupid.  

A lot of people do. It is the kernel in their Android devices and therefore the dominant smart-phone operating system in sales. If you mean GNU/Linux as a desktop operating system then the figure is 1%. Now Bitcoin has a very long way to go in order to match GNU/Linux as a desktop operating system in market share.

1% of all gold 85 Billion USD
1% of world M1 money supply (cash / chequing accounts) 200 Billion USD http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1231778551.php

The combined valuation speculation / protection of value (gold) and medium of exchange (M1) for a 1% market share is 285 Billion USD or based on 21 million Bitcoin maximum 13,600 USD per BTC. So my insane pie in the sky valuation for Bitcoin is based on a market share equivalent to that of GNU/Linux on the desktop.

Why isnt Bitcoin closer to that 13600 USD/BTC already?
Because that number based on market share of 1% is what bitcoin may be valued once it actually gains that share. Atm we are looking at something like 0,000000000000000000000000000000000001% of all monetary transactions on the planet being settled using bitcoin (I made that number up ). So in fact it is rather suprising that bitcoin is valued at such high prices, considering your equation.

Seriously, I think a number of facts apply for which bitcoin is not valued higher or lower then it is right now. My favorite 5 of which are the following:
- Anonymousness of the whole bitcoin thing to the public
- Lacking adoption
- High risk of terminal failure of bitcoin
- Low market cap
- Strong competition


P.S.:

3) It seems like a lot of people are very focused on bitcoin's adoption by merchants, i.e. the "medium of exchange" aspect of currency, as the key to its success. But couldn't bitcoin still be insanely successful (in terms of its value) if it took off ONLY as a store of value? (And isn't that mostly how gold is used?)

Good point. The problem is that this quality of bitcoin has yet to prove itself.

[disclaimer201]

Don't forget all the hacks that are going on. It's impossible to make a bitcoin business 100% secure as long as hot wallets are needed. If you haven't been hacked yet, you were simple not yet a target - seems to hold some truth here.

[RodeoX]

Hang in there man. Sometimes it takes as long as three months to become filthy rich from bitcoin. 

[niko]

IMHO the legal status of Bitcoin is the only reason why big players don't want to invest in Bitcoin.

This makes sense. Inevitably, this year will see the legal status clarified, as these will be first tax filings after btc became valuable.

[Spekulatius]

IMHO the legal status of Bitcoin is the only reason why big players don't want to invest in Bitcoin.

This makes sense. Inevitably, this year will see the legal status clarified, as these will be first tax filings after btc became valuable.

[niko]

IMHO the legal status of Bitcoin is the only reason why big players don't want to invest in Bitcoin.

This makes sense. Inevitably, this year will see the legal status clarified, as these will be first tax filings after btc became valuable.

Again: lots of btc businesses were created last year, and reported profits. This year is the first year governments will be taxing them, and thereby legitimizing btc.

[Tuxavant]

Again: lots of btc businesses were created last year, and reported profits. This year is the first year governments will be taxing them, and thereby legitimizing btc.

No way the government is close to making this kind of call, specifically about Bitcoin. However, there are already reporting requirement, generally, about capital gains or sales. i.e. you make a cash sale, you better report it.

[punningclan]

Heh, reading just the title, I was sure this was a humorous posting making fun of the speculation forum.

It seems op was serious

Ha, yeah I was serious (mostly). The problem is I go back and forth. Bitcoin really DOES seem like it has the potential to be revolutionary and MASSIVELY successful. And I sometimes think I'm a genius for understanding its implications earlier than most.  But then I remember that I'm not that smart. And I haven't exactly won over the friends and family I've tried to convert. ("Dude, you've got to drop the bitcoin sh*t. Seriously, I don't care.") And then I wonder if I'm not just a moron who spent several grand on "Mario money" (my wife's preferred term) that will soon be worthless.   I guess we'll find out. 

The problem is that Bitcoin, as a concept, requires a greater than average understanding of:

- Economics
- Networks
- Coding
- Cryptography
- Social science
- Market forces
- ... and I'm probably missing a few.

That is the reason most people don't get it. Most people have a somewhat basic understanding of one, two or maybe three of these, but not all.

Think about what needed to be understood for the concept of email to take hold. Not now, with the ability to open a gmail account and send an email within seconds, but back when NO ONE had a computer sitting on their desk. There was computing (how to get a computer to work, how to give it DOS commands, how to set up a modem through the phone line, how to get an email across those lines, etc)... people used to prefer to pick up the phone, or send a letter through the mail. And now they don't. It isn't that their understanding of these items has magically grown, it's just that those who did understand them well made them user friendly to the point that the average Joe doesn't need to figure it out, much like he doesn't need to understand electrons in order to throw a light switch.

That's happening with Bitcoin too. Take a look at Bitinstant, Bit-Pay and a host of others... it's coming, my friend. "Real's gonna change" :-)

Show her this: http://vimeo.com/2244372 Then have the discussion.

[TraderTimm]

Bitcoin, to me, has always been about asserting control over means of exchange. I'm tired of people insulated from the 'real world' making monetary policy decisions to my detriment. I don't care if bitcoin is traded at 1 dollar or 100*. The fact that it exists is enough for me, in addition to its algorithmic controls and underlying protocol.

It is a financial revolution which allows the user complete freedom over how they allocate and spend money. A lot of people who deride bitcoin as a 'ponzi scheme' or other similar tropes miss this entirely. It is this fundamental misunderstanding that bolsters my confidence in bitcoin. Why? Because people are notorious for dumping on a idea that is too far of an 'outlier' from their lives.

This doesn't mean it is a bad idea, just that the framework in which it is born is too far removed from 'normal' comprehension. Revolutionary ideas usually take existing concepts and apply them in ways never considered before. This confluence of computational power, cryptography, peer-to-peer networks and currency simply has never existed before.

This is why I think bitcoin, as a system and as a concept, is highly disruptive and ultimately world-changing.

*(In fact, I make the case that relying on tertiary exchange into other currencies is merely a phase before total adoption, which would make conversions unnecessary.)