What will happen when the 21M bitcoin will be minned

[DeathAndTaxes]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

[Vlad2Vlad]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

That's right, it will be over a century so then why do I keep seeing 2033 all over the place?  I've seen reputable sites quote 2033 or something like that?  Is it because the hashrate is always 2 weeks ahead and during those 2 weeks, due to a exponential climb in the hashrate and the difficulty lag, the reward scheme goes from 10 minutes to around 5 minutes and in theory that could even go under 1 minute for certain periods of time so people then may be guessing that the 21 million will in fact but totally mined in another 20 years?

I don't know, it's the only thing I could think of and I do find it odd that Satoshi made it go through the next century - I mean, what's the point of that? 

If someone can clarify why I've seen so many people say Bitcoin will mint all the coins sooner I'd appreciate it.

[Rannasha]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

That's right, it will be over a century so then why do I keep seeing 2033 all over the place?  I've seen reputable sites quote 2033 or something like that?  Is it because the hashrate is always 2 weeks ahead and during those 2 weeks, due to a exponential climb in the hashrate and the difficulty lag, the reward scheme goes from 10 minutes to around 5 minutes and in theory that could even go under 1 minute for certain periods of time so people then may be guessing that the 21 million will in fact but totally mined in another 20 years?

First of all, if the block time goes down to 5 minutes instead of 10, that would imply that a 100% difficulty increase is needed. So far the highest we've had since the onset of the ASIC-age was the most recent one, 46%. So while block times are accelerated compared to the target of 10 minutes, it's not nearly that dramatic. And the general expectation is that the difficulty growth will slow down eventually, probably next year, and with it will come block times much closer to 10 minutes on average.

I'm not entirely sure why 2033 is coined as a year where all coins have been mined. It is factually wrong. What is true and relevant is that the speed at which coins are mined will decrease considerably over the next decade. With a block time of 10 minutes, there's a block reward halving every 4 years. At that rate, 2033 is the 6th block reward halving and at that point only 1/64th of all bitcoins are still left to be mined. With all the accelerated block times we've had, it's quite reasonable to assume that 2033 will actually be closer to the 7th block reward halving, which means that at that point more than 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined.

Block rewards will continue to be non-zero until they fall below 1 satoshi, which happens around the 32th block reward halving, which will take place 128 years after the Genesis Block (not counting speedup in block times). However the income from block rewards will be extremely low in the decades leading up to this moment, hopefully they'll be negligible compared to the transaction fees.

[Vlad2Vlad]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

That's right, it will be over a century so then why do I keep seeing 2033 all over the place?  I've seen reputable sites quote 2033 or something like that?  Is it because the hashrate is always 2 weeks ahead and during those 2 weeks, due to a exponential climb in the hashrate and the difficulty lag, the reward scheme goes from 10 minutes to around 5 minutes and in theory that could even go under 1 minute for certain periods of time so people then may be guessing that the 21 million will in fact but totally mined in another 20 years?

First of all, if the block time goes down to 5 minutes instead of 10, that would imply that a 100% difficulty increase is needed. So far the highest we've had since the onset of the ASIC-age was the most recent one, 46%. So while block times are accelerated compared to the target of 10 minutes, it's not nearly that dramatic. And the general expectation is that the difficulty growth will slow down eventually, probably next year, and with it will come block times much closer to 10 minutes on average.

I'm not entirely sure why 2033 is coined as a year where all coins have been mined. It is factually wrong. What is true and relevant is that the speed at which coins are mined will decrease considerably over the next decade. With a block time of 10 minutes, there's a block reward halving every 4 years. At that rate, 2033 is the 6th block reward halving and at that point only 1/64th of all bitcoins are still left to be mined. With all the accelerated block times we've had, it's quite reasonable to assume that 2033 will actually be closer to the 7th block reward halving, which means that at that point more than 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined.

Block rewards will continue to be non-zero until they fall below 1 satoshi, which happens around the 32th block reward halving, which will take place 128 years after the Genesis Block (not counting speedup in block times). However the income from block rewards will be extremely low in the decades leading up to this moment, hopefully they'll be negligible compared to the transaction fees.

Thanks for the clarification, that makes perfect sense.

[Vlad2Vlad]

Only over 100 years left to decide.. 

Hahahaaaa.

I've decided, I'm going with BTC for the short term [3-12 months] and I'm going with ixCoin for the longer term.

There will be no real winners here in the long term as any riches you make will be digitized and fully controlled by the banks and the government and if you want to eat your Cheetos with this new-found wealth you're gonna have to forfeit your freedom, your religion and your life and submit to being chipped like a junkyard dog.

That there will be the toughest choice the masses will have to make.  Lots of crypto-tears are coming.

[DannyHamilton]

If someone can clarify why I've seen so many people say Bitcoin will mint all the coins sooner I'd appreciate it.

Some impatient and lazy person took a look at this graph from the wiki page and assumed that since the graph stops at 2033, coin creation must stop at 2033.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time_graph.png

They then spread this incorrect information to anyone that asked.  People believed the bad information they were receiving rather than looking it up themselves.  They then repeated it to others. And so on, and so on.

You'll also hear some people claim that coin creation stops in 2024.  That came from the same sort if misinformation when someone was too lazy an impatient to scroll down on this wiki page:

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

They saw the "Projected Bitcoins Short Term" chart near the top and assumed that since that chart stops at 2024, coin creation must stop at 2024.

[culexevilman]

Well we won't be there to see it happen, maybe our kids will see it in their lifetime...

[Boussac]

There will be no real winners here in the long term as any riches you make will be digitized and fully controlled by the banks and the government and if you want to eat your Cheetos with this new-found wealth you're gonna have to forfeit your freedom, your religion and your life and submit to being chipped like a junkyard dog.

That there will be the toughest choice the masses will have to make.  Lots of crypto-tears are coming.

Relax there is one benefit that is bestowed upon us by the mere existence of bitcoin: you can be your own bank.
Bitcoin is more than just another asset class.
The balance of power has shifted for the first time in the direction of the people. That is the main reason banks are so worried.

[Vlad2Vlad]

There will be no real winners here in the long term as any riches you make will be digitized and fully controlled by the banks and the government and if you want to eat your Cheetos with this new-found wealth you're gonna have to forfeit your freedom, your religion and your life and submit to being chipped like a junkyard dog.

That there will be the toughest choice the masses will have to make.  Lots of crypto-tears are coming.

Relax there is one benefit that is bestowed upon us by the mere existence of bitcoin: you can be your own bank.
Bitcoin is more than just another asset class.
The balance of power has shifted for the first time in the direction of the people. That is the main reason banks are so worried.

You think banks are worried?  Lol, is that why they haven't done anything to kill it?

One piece of legislation and the banks own Bitcoin and all of your assets.  It's gonna be that swift and easy and once you've gone digital there is no going back. 

[giszmo]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

That's right, it will be over a century so then why do I keep seeing 2033 all over the place?  I've seen reputable sites quote 2033 or something like that?  Is it because the hashrate is always 2 weeks ahead and during those 2 weeks, due to a exponential climb in the hashrate and the difficulty lag, the reward scheme goes from 10 minutes to around 5 minutes and in theory that could even go under 1 minute for certain periods of time so people then may be guessing that the 21 million will in fact but totally mined in another 20 years?

First of all, if the block time goes down to 5 minutes instead of 10, that would imply that a 100% difficulty increase is needed. So far the highest we've had since the onset of the ASIC-age was the most recent one, 46%. So while block times are accelerated compared to the target of 10 minutes, it's not nearly that dramatic. And the general expectation is that the difficulty growth will slow down eventually, probably next year, and with it will come block times much closer to 10 minutes on average.

I'm not entirely sure why 2033 is coined as a year where all coins have been mined. It is factually wrong. What is true and relevant is that the speed at which coins are mined will decrease considerably over the next decade. With a block time of 10 minutes, there's a block reward halving every 4 years. At that rate, 2033 is the 6th block reward halving and at that point only 1/64th of all bitcoins are still left to be mined. With all the accelerated block times we've had, it's quite reasonable to assume that 2033 will actually be closer to the 7th block reward halving, which means that at that point more than 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined.

My theory of why 2033 popps up again and again was that journalists assume that rewards below 1Ƀ won't work.

Block rewards will continue to be non-zero until they fall below 1 satoshi, which happens around the 32th block reward halving, which will take place 128 years after the Genesis Block (not counting speedup in block times). However the income from block rewards will be extremely low in the decades leading up to this moment, hopefully they'll be negligible compared to the transaction fees.

Why do you hope for transaction fees? I hope both will be negligible by any standard. Mining is a terribly misleading term and should in fact be called securing. There will be people interested in securing the network just because they have stake in it and not because they can harvest fees or block rewards.

[papaminer]

We will reach 21m bitcoin when...

there are GUNDAMs and humans as pilot...



I would love to live to see that day...

[franky1]

What will happen when the 21M bitcoin will be mined

our corpses will either be dust in the wind or worm feed..

miners fee's of the next century should be less of a concern then how we will spend our current investments on our bucket lists, this century

[DeathAndTaxes]

It will take us more then a decade to mine 21M, so who knows.

More like a century but who is counting?

That's right, it will be over a century so then why do I keep seeing 2033 all over the place?

Because people are dumb.  Someone citing 2033 as the projected end of block subsidy is not reputable.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time_graph.png

The chart ends in 2033 so "obviously" so does Bitcoin.  Of course the source for that chart (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_Currency_Supply) explains the subsidy won't go to zero for over a century so anyone quoting 2033 hasn't done even a few minutes of self research.

The date the subsidy will go to zero on the 34th halving of the block subsidy.   That is ~132 years (~2138) after launch IF the network hashrate was constant.  However over time the network hashrate is rising so it will occur prior to that.  How much depends on what the average network growth rate is during the life of Bitcoin.  If we assume the average growth rate is 15% per adjustment period (unlikely to be that high) it would "only" take (1-0.15)*132 = 112 years, still over a century to go.

[gollum]

I believe alt-coins will gain market share from bitcoin in commerce once bitcoins becomes too valuable to spend.
Therefore a high value of bitcoin and low inflation will in the end lead to the stagnation of bitcoin as a medium of exchange (money) and instead make it more a storage of wealth, like gold.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I believe alt-coins will gain market share from bitcoin in commerce once bitcoins becomes too valuable to spend.
Therefore a high value of bitcoin and low inflation will in the end lead to the stagnation of bitcoin as a medium of exchange (money) and instead make it more a storage of wealth, like gold.

Bitcoin is perfectly divisible it will never be too expensive to spend.  People may hoard it when the short term price appreciation is greater than their desire for goods/services but a stagnation of price would be the perfect time/reason to spend.

Gold is an imperfect unit of currency because small amount of gold are very difficulty to effectively buy/sell/trade/spend.  Bitcoin doesn't suffer from that problem.

[rampalija]

We will be dead wheb that happens. See the difficulty chart

[dank]

BTC will lose all value by then.

[Trongersoll]

We'll be dead, who cares.

[WishIStartedSooner]

The commission fee will keep the market up

[Vlad2Vlad]

The commission fee will keep the market up

Nobody knows what the commission fee will be.