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GratefulCoin
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December 13, 2014, 01:35:50 AM
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If the global economy goes up or down... does the value of Bitcoin follow?  What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?
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blumangroup
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December 13, 2014, 01:42:41 AM
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If the global economy goes up or down... does the value of Bitcoin follow?  What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?
It would likely be unaffected. The price of bitcoin is likely more of a trailing indicator of the global economy then a leading indicator, and only when it has extreme price moves upward (when the price of bitcoin spikes up, it likely means the major world economies have just gone though some kind of major crisis).

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December 13, 2014, 01:57:33 AM
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If the global economy goes up or down... does the value of Bitcoin follow?  What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?
It would likely be unaffected. The price of bitcoin is likely more of a trailing indicator of the global economy then a leading indicator, and only when it has extreme price moves upward (when the price of bitcoin spikes up, it likely means the major world economies have just gone though some kind of major crisis).

agreed. well said.  Wink

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December 13, 2014, 08:35:48 AM
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Currently adoption rate is too low to make an assumption or correlation. For example gold and usd price move inversely. I expect btc to follow the same like gold against usd trend. If people feel insecure about dollar they will hedge their position in bitcoin. However we haven't that stage of adoption just yet to tell the trending.

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December 13, 2014, 01:07:53 PM
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If the global economy goes up or down... does the value of Bitcoin follow?  What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?
It would likely be unaffected. The price of bitcoin is likely more of a trailing indicator of the global economy then a leading indicator, and only when it has extreme price moves upward (when the price of bitcoin spikes up, it likely means the major world economies have just gone though some kind of major crisis).
At the current adoption level , I deeply doubt the price of bitcoin has any high correlation with world economy. Don't you remember the peak price of over $1000? What drived the price at such high level crazily? It is speculation.
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December 13, 2014, 01:18:25 PM
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If the global economy goes up or down... does the value of Bitcoin follow?  What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?

Absolutely nothing.

Bitcoin and the current world economy have no connections.

At this point the price of Bitcoin is mainly controlled by whales, early adopters, speculators, and other people who are looking for a quick buck.

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December 13, 2014, 02:16:18 PM
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What does the current price of Bitcoin tell us about the near future of the global economy?

Tells about the same thing as the current price of BTCeanie BTCabies: Nothing.
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December 13, 2014, 03:11:43 PM
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If there are bank runs, people will put some money into BTC, just as they did after Cyprus.
With ever more negative interest rates being introduced, and extra capital flight rules, bitcoin could become massive if and when the economy tanks.
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December 13, 2014, 10:54:54 PM
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True. So long as a few more people become aware of Bitcoin every day and realise its potential as a store of value.

I initially wanted to put only what I could spare from my monthly pay into BTC but recently it has become a little more obsessive and I find myself buying up slightly more than I wanted to.

I can always sell it though, so long as we aren't due an almighty crash. I don't believe that will happen. A drop to $300 will make more people buy and bring the price back up.

I'm not an economist in the slightest but I can see that it's a great store of value and the long, boring sideways movement we've had a few months is probably down to those with large quantities of BTC manipulating the market.

I'm also sure that the US dollar is doomed within the next couple of years and that can only raise Bitcoin's position in the game.
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December 13, 2014, 11:36:14 PM
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I have compiled a spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml# with the data taken from blockchain.info and research.stlouisfed.org.

I update the data and the charts weekly or bi-weekly (data of Money Base is released bi-weekly)
I will post here pictures of the charts and update them.
Suggestions for beautification or improve anything welcome.









The last chart is about the ratio between real inflation in BTC and the default inflation in BTC



Martijnvdc
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December 14, 2014, 11:08:51 AM
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I have compiled a spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jjhd_nnfRJ9EyYuOM1ACPMwRod3hhPqRk4YQp7FIZE/pubhtml# with the data taken from blockchain.info and research.stlouisfed.org.

I update the data and the charts weekly or bi-weekly (data of Money Base is released bi-weekly)
I will post here pictures of the charts and update them.
Suggestions for beautification or improve anything welcome.
This is brilliant! This is exactly what i was looking for!
I'm currently making a piece of software that grabs data from different sources in realtime. I have a neural network which i have been training with many different input parameters, and i'm looking for more sources.
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