Russian Ruble drops 12% in one day.

[steelhouse]

Is ruble fully backed by gold??? I thought only swiss franc has that.

Back in 1999, the Swiss voted 59% for changing their constitution, specifically to remove the 40% gold-backing from the Swiss Franc.
Recently, a referendum to at least require the central bank to hold 20% of its reserves at gold was proposed as a step towards reintroducing a gold standard.  It was defeated with 78% voting against.

I wonder if you had to have an IQ of at least 110 to vote what would of happend.

People love cheap debt when they don't think they have to pay for it.  People become richer and move up the ranks fast on cheap debt.  If they had to go to engineering school, to earn their money, they would not be where they are.  Basically cheap debt and paper backed currencies let the non-working elite have the money and power.  The poorlove it to they can buy cars and not have to pay it back if they want to buy a new cellphone.

[bitcoinmining]

The Russian central bank said it would raise its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent. It's a huge increase, looks like situation is serious for Russian government.

[Atdhe]

Omg. Russia has not hyperinflation. Russia is on the edge of runaway inflation, which is something that for example Israel lived for years with.

Also it is incredible, how people mix inflation and depreciation. Depreciation of RUB to foreign currencies was much bigger than inflation is. Depreciation for example  does not always have impact on price of domestic products, especially the ones that are created from domestic commodities. It has direct impact on imports, which get more rpicey. But Russia isalso big exprt economy and depreciation is boom for export.

And while it would be great if the crisis would help btc, it simly does not happen. Btc dropped today almost like RUB.

[Atdhe]

On the top of that Russia is oil exporting country and the depreciation of RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

[Arv1e]

On the top of that Russia is oil exporting country and the depreciation of RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

So you don't think the world sanctions imposed upon Russia regarding its Ukraine intervention has anything to do with it then!

You have to be an American because they are the only country who dont seem to actually know what is going on in the world beyond the USA shores!

Oh, and most Russians hold their savings in Dollars not Rubles!

And the Russians spread daily propaganda stating its the nasty west who cause all these fiancial problems!

[contagion]

RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

The oil price decline will be protracted and pernicious because this a changing of the tide from global inflation to global deflation as explained in the linked post. QE couldn't go on indefinitely.

[Atdhe]

On the top of that Russia is oil exporting country and the depreciation of RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

So you don't think the world sanctions imposed upon Russia regarding its Ukraine intervention has anything to do with it then!

You have to be an American because they are the only country who dont seem to actually know what is going on in the world beyond the USA shores!

Oh, and most Russians hold their savings in Dollars not Rubles!

And the Russians spread daily propaganda stating its the nasty west who cause all these fiancial problems!

The impact of sanctions is wastly overrated. Do not force me to have black or white stand as it is this forum standard.

Simply look at this:


And no, you are absolutely wrong about my nationality. I am born in Russian satellite state and living in another BRIC country. World is simply not so simple as you think. Russia goes now to the hell mainly because of simple battle on oil market, where OPEC countries who can mineoil at low prices compete with USA. The ultimate loser is Russia for now. No conspiracy, just market.

[Atdhe]

RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

The oil price decline will be protracted and pernicious because this a changing of the tide from global inflation to global deflation as explained in the linked post. QE couldn't go on indefinitely.

Yes indeed. The demand for oild will for sure drop overnight by tens of % How much oil you think can be mined in long term with current prices? Not much. Oil supply will drop at those prices, then prices will hike again and then the supply will raise again. Just few deep sea drills will be postponed, that is all.

This happened before and will happen again. Incredible. Always there is some doomsayer from one or second camp.

[LiteCoinGuy]

[HeroCat]

In Forex market Russian Ruble is not the main currency, so it isnpt connected with Forex market players, may be this is because of low oil price 

[contagion]

RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

The oil price decline will be protracted and pernicious because this a changing of the tide from global inflation to global deflation as explained in the linked post. QE couldn't go on indefinitely.

Yes indeed. The demand for oild will for sure drop overnight by tens of % How much oil you think can be mined in long term with current prices? Not much. Oil supply will drop at those prices, then prices will hike again and then the supply will raise again. Just few deep sea drills will be postponed, that is all.

This happened before and will happen again. Incredible. Always there is some doomsayer from one or second camp.

The demand has been dropping since 2011 at least, but the market expectations were out-of-line with the reality. The price is correcting to reflect reality, but the reality is still much worse than the market realizes because much of the global economic shit hasn't hit the fan yet, but it will in earnest starting October 2015.

You didn't read my detailed  post which is linked from the post linked above. I explained how a falling oil price destroys more demand in a vicious cycle given we will be on the deflationary side of the debt misallocation mountain that created the demand in the first place, so that probably won't bottom until 2016 and $40s at least.

Eventually the global economy will bottom. If we go into a Dark Age, it can take 600 years. We have to see how bad this coming shit is...

[Atdhe]

yeah, dark age, 6000 years at least and price of barrel will be -1000 USD. Well USD will not exist at all.

We all will sell bitcoins on carved sticks and buy horses, which will be the best transportation method, I clearly see that.

What else?

[contagion]

yeah, dark age, 6000 years at least and price of barrel will be -1000 USD. Well USD will not exist at all.

We all will sell bitcoins on carved sticks and buy horses, which will be the best transportation method, I clearly see that.

What else?

Of course I didn't think a 600 year Dark Age is very likely. I suppose you missed the 2016 date in my post. I try to remain in a good mood when posting on this forum, but invariably some can't read and want to create a fight. Did I write anything in my prior post that was acrimonious?

Btw, I guess you didn't know what commodities have been on a terminal downtrend in price for 6000 years. Iron was a precious metal before Jesus was purportedly born.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/cfn396_1.gif

[countryfree]

This isn't Russia versus the US. The ruble is down towards the Euro and all the world's currencies, even the Polish Zloty! I hope it could kickstart a revolution in Russia, but Russians will probably starve to death not understanding anything.

The Ruble is going down due to the sanctions, so obviously it weakens compared with any currency.

What kind of revolution are you hoping for? You want to see their government replaced by "US approved" oligarch? How would that benefit the average Russian?

How does the actual Russian government help the average Russian?
I was in Greece recently, and there were plenty of Russians who were just like me: they hate their country, and they don't want to go back there. That was before the slide of the currency...

[RoadTrain]

Oh, and most Russians hold their savings in Dollars not Rubles!

Sorry, but this has almost nothing to do with reality. While Russians do like dollars, especially during hard times, most of the savings are in rubles. More than 10% nominal annual interest on deposits was a lot more lucrative than that on dollars. By the way, the real interest rate on ruble savings was positive (and still is).

[Darude Sandstorm]

Now they know how us bitcoiners feel. As much as i dislike Russia I think this is bad for them and don't like to see it happen. I also think this is also going to further sour diplomatic relations between the States and them which is also not a good thing.

[orsotheysaid]

yeah, dark age, 6000 years at least and price of barrel will be -1000 USD. Well USD will not exist at all.

We all will sell bitcoins on carved sticks and buy horses, which will be the best transportation method, I clearly see that.

What else?

We'll still have internet with the bitcoin sponsored satelites running our own internet

[steelhouse]

61.8 so rebounded slightly.  Russia holds a lot of U.S. debt so they can sell some of it to help the ruble.  They could also peg the ruble to the dollar if they wanted to.

[RoadTrain]

61.8 so rebounded slightly.  Russia holds a lot of U.S. debt so they can sell some of it to help the ruble.  They could also peg the ruble to the dollar if they wanted to.

Russia has been gradually walking away from dollar-based monetary system towards more independent interest-rate based one. So there's no sense in switching back to a pegged regime.

[pawel7777]

The Ruble is going down due to the sanctions, so obviously it weakens compared with any currency.

What kind of revolution are you hoping for? You want to see their government replaced by "US approved" oligarch? How would that benefit the average Russian?

How does the actual Russian government help the average Russian?
I was in Greece recently, and there were plenty of Russians who were just like me: they hate their country, and they don't want to go back there. That was before the slide of the currency...

You didn't answer my question. What's the alternative? Right now you have 2 options, either:

1) Putin's team - I don't know whether they're doing a good job making the average Russian happy. But their goal is to keep Russia as relevant force, military and economically strong and independent. Otherwise, their power is diminished. And power is what they all are after (US, China, Russia), not "money, yachts, cars and hoes" as some 12-year old would think (these are goals for some small-town mayors).

2) Pro-western option. Likely some of the oligarchs, like a bigger version of Poroshenko (is Khodorkovsky still on the cards?). They will obviously get a great reception from US and EU, there will be a lots of smiles and handshakes. Russians will be fed with slogans that "We're finally moving towards real democracy, freedom, wealth [white doves flying in the background]". But, by the very definition, their role will be to keep Russia weak, irrelevant and dependent.

So which one's best for the average Russian? Do you see any other, realistic option?