Dec 17 to Dec 29th diff thread (-0.32%) to (-0.12%)

[skuser]

What kind of adjustment do you mean? Block size halving (August 2016) is still too far away for miners. I'd say only hardware producers are pretty aware of it

[suchmoon]

What kind of adjustment do you mean? Block size halving (August 2016) is still too far away for miners. I'd say only hardware producers are pretty aware of it

Difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks... you know, in the title of the thread 

[skuser]

  lol my bad, got it

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,278,293,015 (-5.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1299 Blocks, About 9.6 days

Also on a sidenote the S5 ships Dec 27th.  Will be interesting to see effect of that on hash rate.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,278,293,015 (-5.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1299 Blocks, About 9.6 days

Also on a sidenote the S5 ships Dec 27th.  Will be interesting to see effect of that on hash rate.

Yeah I think we are going to end up + for sure this diff jump

[Biodom]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,460,709,208 (-5.06%)
WAW!

Keep in mind that this is based on the last X blocks - not sure how big X is but quite sure at this moment it still includes the peak of XPY mining. This will fall off in a few days, so there is going to be bump up, question is - how much exactly.

I believe it is 504 or ¼   of the 2016 in the adjustment.  If so We  still had pressure up to  sat so 3 days after sat is tues.  We should see big gains well 2-4 %  and since we are 4.5% neg we may get back to -1% by late tues or early  weds.

we will surge up in the next 3 days for sure for reason that OP posted (burn in), so you are right, we might get to par or -1%.
next one will be at least +3-5%

[mavericklm]

s5 shipping is too late to make a big splash. i'm still waiting for returning brothers that fought for xpy...

[notlist3d]

s5 shipping is too late to make a big splash. i'm still waiting for returning brothers that fought for xpy...

The XPY machines most should have made it back by now.   There are some chances are still on rental sites and nicehash still, but most should be back soon (If not already it's been days since XPY gave rewards for mining).

I would not say to late.  In 5 days they ship.  We will see testing (burn-in's) prior to that.   It's safe to say we will see a increase in hash rate.   We cannot predict what that is.  

But expect something to be replacing those old Dragons, etc. Most have cheap electricity, and not shut down. It could be SP gear, or Bitmain.  The advantage with SP would be something like sp-35 you get around 5T per and are all ready for rack mount.

I don't know if it will be enough to go positive or not this round but it will go up some.

[aclass]

I would say -2% should be OK for the next diff. S5 seems again a bit high in price but ppl will buy it anyways
XPY mining has ended a couple of days a go so whoever wanted to come back is already back. Most likely some S1s and other old is now completely off after the XPY rental boom

[mavericklm]

my brothers are back!
or is it bitmain or other producer that hit the switch?
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,864,384,817 (-4.04%)

8:59 AM
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Beijing Time (CST) +0800 UTC
i think they hit it!

[Biodom]

my brothers are back!
or is it bitmain or other producer that hit the switch?
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,864,384,817 (-4.04%)

8:59 AM
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Beijing Time (CST) +0800 UTC
i think they hit it!

they burn in S5 before shipping-my take, which makes it ~20-30PH of S5=15-20K machines ?

[notlist3d]

my brothers are back!
or is it bitmain or other producer that hit the switch?
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,864,384,817 (-4.04%)

8:59 AM
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Beijing Time (CST) +0800 UTC
i think they hit it!

they burnin S5 before shipping-my take, which makes it ~20-30PH of S5=15-20K machines ?

I would agree I think most are already back from paycoin.  I think we will see quite a bit of S5 burn in.  They seem to sell quite a few each release.  With this being a new chip a lot will probley buy.

[edonkey]

Honestly I don't see the S5 making that big a difference. It really is too late when you compare it against the competition. Now that we know the S5 specs and price, it doesn't seem all that compelling.

For example, if I'm reading it right the S5 has no DC/DC converters which means that programable over or under clocking is out of the question for most users with standard power supplies. Also, it sounds like if there's a single ASIC failure in the chain, the whole chain falls over.

While all of this adds up to cheaper construction and better profits for Bitmain, it means the S5 is less flexible and likely has lower resale value potential than the competitors like the SP20. If you can't effectively under clock an S5, then what value will it have a few months from now?

Add in the fact that the free review models of SP20's have resulted in enormous PR on this forum. Those SP marketing folks really know how to effectively schmooze. Bitmain's PR and communication skills just don't compare.

Sure, some people will buy the S5. People like Bitmain and they like shiny new things, and they will buy it without doing their homework.

But it's not going to be a game changer for the next (or any) difficulty adjustment.

I'd be more worried that Spondoolies reduces the SP20 price again. If they knocked off another $200 (unlikely, but who knows), and if they could build them fast enough, they might move enough units to propel the difficulty again.

Hell, I'd probably buy more and have no idea where I'd put them (they are loud!)

[klondike_bar]

^1 in a chain failing will almost certainly have no effect - the chain is only new in the way it divides voltage across chips, and the chip design should still act as a load even if the chip is disabled. Unlikely to be a major failure

^2 the s5 could more easily be undervolted by adding additional chips of some other form of voltage drop to the series circuit. If bitmain was smart they would incorporate some sort of toggle/dummy-load or make an easy way to plug a 3-chip module onto the board to effectively knock down the voltage/chip to improve efficiency down the road

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,954,117,875 (-3.81%)
Adjust time:    After 1118 Blocks, About 8.1 days
Hashrate(?):    281,289,994 GH/s

Looks like we are gaining a little hashrate slowly.

[philipma1957]

Honestly I don't see the S5 making that big a difference. It really is too late when you compare it against the competition. Now that we know the S5 specs and price, it doesn't seem all that compelling.

For example, if I'm reading it right the S5 has no DC/DC converters which means that programable over or under clocking is out of the question for most users with standard power supplies. Also, it sounds like if there's a single ASIC failure in the chain, the whole chain falls over.

While all of this adds up to cheaper construction and better profits for Bitmain, it means the S5 is less flexible and likely has lower resale value potential than the competitors like the SP20. If you can't effectively under clock an S5, then what value will it have a few months from now?

Add in the fact that the free review models of SP20's have resulted in enormous PR on this forum. Those SP marketing folks really know how to effectively schmooze. Bitmain's PR and communication skills just don't compare.

Sure, some people will buy the S5. People like Bitmain and they like shiny new things, and they will buy it without doing their homework.

But it's not going to be a game changer for the next (or any) difficulty adjustment.

I'd be more worried that Spondoolies reduces the SP20 price again. If they knocked off another $200 (unlikely, but who knows), and if they could build them fast enough, they might move enough units to propel the difficulty again.

Hell, I'd probably buy more and have no idea where I'd put them (they are loud!)

the battle looks to start between the s5 and the sp20. 

1) the sp20 is now in a group buy 2 for 1000
2) the s5 dropped from 450 to 418
3) I have been offered a free demo s5  from bitmain  for me to do a review on it.  I said yes and will post a review when the time come.

I will take the s-5 and do a stand alone review .  Next I will try to do a fair compare between the s-5 and sp20.

Now I know a lot of people will think hashrate will move high due to this.

 well  this gear is going to make all gear over .8 pretty much unless.  and even s-3's will not be too good unless you have really good power prices.

[mavericklm]

2) the s5 dropped from 450 to 418

do u believe that? i believe they just test the market and 418 was the real price, or maybe it's even lower...

[philipma1957]

2) the s5 dropped from 450 to 418

do u believe that? i believe they just test the market and 418 was the real price, or maybe it's even lower...

Well I don't know but plug in 418 and say 42 to ship  so 460 usd

it makes money using 4% diff jumps 332 coin price  and 10 cent power  and .55 watts at the wall per gh

[vortexz]

difficulty is getting so HIIIGH now with the new S5 !!! you might have to rethink your plans with only 4 % diff increase

[philipma1957]

difficulty is getting so HIIIGH now with the new S5 !!! you might have to rethink your plans with only 4 % diff increase

Longterm diff calcs are really hard.  Last summer I joined the camp that  thought diff was going to slow a lot.  It has.  I do not know if 4% for the next 6 months is right or wrong.  it is possible.
If the sp20  the sp31 the sp 35 all do .5 watts  If the s-5 does .53 watts.

They will make the s-3 worth very little. So a lot of the s-3's will go off line. S-4's will stick a round longer.  Thus a limiting factor to new growth is 50ph of the network has to be in s-3's soon they stop making money. 

At 4% 326 usd a coin and  10 cent power an s-3 makes 3 dollars a month in Aug 2015.
At   15 cents it makes 2 dollars a month by April 2015. So the s-3 will be at end of useful life in the spring of 2015 for some of us and by the summer of 2015 it will be at end of life for most owners of it. They come off line diff gets downward pressure.

Of course if price jumps to 600 usd  all of the above is wrong and diff will jump faster.

 

today we are at (-3.68%)

About 7.2 days to go


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 326 usd