Dec 17 to Dec 29th diff thread (-0.32%) to (-0.12%)

[mavericklm]

S5 is up and running for more than 1 month! it will not make much difference in the % of difficulty

[philipma1957]

S5 is up and running for more than 1 month! it will not make much difference in the % of difficulty

yep there is that  burn in factor.

right now it looks like sp20 vs s-5 showdown .   once a lot  of these  devices two come online to us miners.  

All .8 watt and above  does not turn a profit.

  at the current btc price of 326.

 the s-3  does not pay for the power it burns if you are a 22 cent a kwatt miner with the current diff of 39m

at  the diff of 55M it does not pay for power costing 16 cents.

at the diff of 86M it does not pay for power costing 10 cents.

at the diff of 104M it does not pay for power costing 8 cents.

A lot of:

S-5's
Sp20's
Sp31's
Sp35's

Will mean very few if any s-1's. 
Almost no dragon miners.
Almost no S-2's
A lot less S-3's
A little less S-4's

So all of that gear going off line will mean diff does not go skyhigh.
I think the really big players have had second thoughts about mining as a cloud op. 
Or mining and cashing coins. 
The coin price of 285-350 usd   makes them very vulnerable to a BTC price drop.
So selling new gear to miners is looking more attractive to them.

[notlist3d]

It's looking like a possible positive difficulty change:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,092,892,001 (-0.92%)
Adjust time:    After 870 Blocks, About 6.0 days

In 6 days if we could see a little positive.   Even if we do it's been a good month as a miner.

I do agree with phil on machines.  I am lucky with a decent amount of cheap electricity.  I plan on going through winter with 1 dragon.   After that (maybe before) I will retire it and try to sell it to one of those with "free" electricity.

Rest of my gear will easily make it through winter, then I will see what I decide to mine during summer and what gets sold.

[philipma1957]

It's looking like a possible positive difficulty change:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,092,892,001 (-0.92%)
Adjust time:    After 870 Blocks, About 6.0 days

In 6 days if we could see a little positive.   Even if we do it's been a good month as a miner.

I do agree with phil on machines.  I am lucky with a decent amount of cheap electricity.  I plan on going through winter with 1 dragon.   After that (maybe before) I will retire it and try to sell it to one of those with "free" electricity.

Rest of my gear will easily make it through winter, then I will see what I decide to mine during summer and what gets sold.

Merry Christmas and to all a good night!  I have lots of cake to eat in the morning.

For this jump +2.5% the  next jump we will see. 

[vortexz]

so much for the decrease ...
the hashing rate is going to the moon !

[aclass]

Spondoolies started burning in the more than 200 SP20s they sold yesterday and BUTMAIN are doing the same with the S5s
Once all those get to their owners we will be up until the S1 and S2 guys decide to stop them.

[vortexz]

200 SP20 is not that much, I guess Bitmain is selling thousands of S5s, that is what is really affecting hash rate right now !

[philipma1957]

200 SP20 is not that much, I guess Bitmain is selling thousands of S5s, that is what is really affecting hash rate right now !

no the switchback from paycoin trails the stats.  at this point I think all the switchback is now shown and some sp20's are up.
The s-5's should not hit the network in bulk until the next jump. 

I see a good jump in Jan I guess the 13th of Jan 2015 I see 4-5%.  The jumps after that 3-4%.

[vortexz]

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !
or rather ... ABORT MISSION EVERYONE !

[philipma1957]

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !

I would not mind price dropping and holding at 250-275  this would force diff to drop.

[Biodom]

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !

I would not mind price dropping and holding at 250-275  this would force diff to drop.

exactly, it would be nice for difficulty to drop 30-40, even 50%.
I am pretty confident that it would drop at least 30% at $250

[notlist3d]

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !

I would not mind price dropping and holding at 250-275  this would force diff to drop.

exactly, it would be nice for difficulty to drop 30-40, even 50%.
I am pretty confident that it would drop at least 30% at $250

I hope it does not dip quite that low.  A lot of miners seem to leave in no matter profit or not so common sense does not always win out.

Personally I always am doing new ROI each change seeing how I look and if I need to unplug any gear.

[Argwai96]

difficulty skyrocketing, price going down
everything is great !
merry xmas to every miner !

I would not mind price dropping and holding at 250-275  this would force diff to drop.

exactly, it would be nice for difficulty to drop 30-40, even 50%.
I am pretty confident that it would drop at least 30% at $250

There are a lot of scenarios when miners are forced to prepay for electricity. PBmining was this was (before they imploded). There are also a lot of hosting companies that force their customers to prepay for electricity to lock in low rates for several months. As a result they are essentially forced to keep their miners on even when they have an effective negative return after electric costs.

Granted some miners will get turned off as the price declines as they can no longer pay the ongoing electric bill (when they have one)

[notlist3d]

Here we go

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,865,336,161 (+1.03%)
Adjust time:    After 729 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    306,793,658 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Here we go

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,865,336,161 (+1.03%)
Adjust time:    After 729 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    306,793,658 GH/s

well it was bound to happen.

 paycoin switchback + sp20's + s-5's =  positive jumps  the real question is how bad?

  + 2 on Dec 31 , + 4  on Jan 13 , + 4  Jan 26  would be nice.     that is 10% for the next 30 days or so.

 the  diff would be  43402m  in late Jan.

I can deal with that.

[suchmoon]

Here we go

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,865,336,161 (+1.03%)
Adjust time:    After 729 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    306,793,658 GH/s

well it was bound to happen.

 paycoin switchback + sp20's + s-5's =  positive jumps  the real question is how bad?

  + 2 on Dec 31 , + 4  on Jan 13 , + 4  Jan 26  would be nice.     that is 10% for the next 30 days or so.

 the  diff would be  43402m  in late Jan.

I can deal with that.

Watch that 504-block gray line coming down really fast. We had a couple of spikes like that in the last couple of months, and I still don't think an increase this time is a foregone conclusion. It could go either way. Whether it's variance or (tinfoil hat on) some vendor testing hardware before shipping out, please let me keep my hope .

[aclass]

if it's HW vendor testing sooner or later the miners will reach their final destination and the increase will be permanent

[mavericklm]

if it's HW vendor testing sooner or later the miners will reach their final destination and the increase will be permanent

haven't u seen the last 2 diff %? also s3 and s4 will come offline in the future. some farms may even close forever, some may burn down, etc etc....

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,395,957,236 (-0.16%) after more than a month of hashing, s5 are going in the box for shipping!

[suchmoon]

if it's HW vendor testing sooner or later the miners will reach their final destination and the increase will be permanent

Thus tinfoil. Legendary Bitmain's/Spond's/insert_vendor_you_dislike 30+ PH/s testing farm that they just switch on/off every couple of months. Mind boggling logistics and math right there.

[klondike_bar]

if it's HW vendor testing sooner or later the miners will reach their final destination and the increase will be permanent

haven't u seen the last 2 diff %? also s3 and s4 will come offline in the future. some farms may even close forever, some may burn down, etc etc....

Estimated Next Difficulty: 39,395,957,236 (-0.16%) after more than a month of hashing, s5 are going in the box for shipping!

Its unlikely the S5 have been hashing for a month, at least not in large quantities. Likely bitmain had batch 1 (and maybe batch 2) in testing for som time, but likely only a small number of miners (<5PH) would be testing/burning-in at once. but the fact is that bitmain more likely runs an S4 farm or has/is developing an S6. Its insanely easier to monitor, install, and control a hundred devices than it is to control 4-5x as many.

diff is looking high on varience again (possibly due to short testing periods for new hardware, plus paycoin users switching back or turning off) - around 1% this jump seems likely, maybe 2%.