BFL Preorders -- What did you get? | Who has the lowest order number?

[Energizer]

I got nothing! There was this voice in my head, telling me not to buy (yet). Why pay BFL with Bitcoin if I can tripple their value with Pirate at the same time. Those who ordered first were always the ones that had to wait longest...

I thought about it in the exact same manner! thats why I end up ordering 2 BFL SC Singles instead of 10 !

[1715206382]

1715206382

[1715206382]

1715206382

[Dargo]

Will be interesting how much the difficulty spikes when these all come online.

I think this needs more insight from BFL. And I have an open question about that to the forum BFL Engineer. BFL-Eng will try to get some more details. The reason it is importnat is kinda obvious, if they keep these prices, the ROI's will eventually take too long. So, I personally would not order any more equipment until I get that insight. Order numbers start around #1600 and I know they went over #2300 about mid week. Assume 800 orders, and average of 200GH per order on average (yeah that is random...but also the point is that we don't know where the hash rate is going). Anyway, that is 200GH/order x 700 orders = 140Thash to be added to the network hash rate just from initial to midweek orders. So, that could easily go to 300TH. Current difficulty is based on 12.5TH. So, difficulty will fly when network hash rate hits 312TH. So, go figure how long it will take you to pay off any BFL equipment if that is the case 1.5years? 2 years? Will the equipment even be warrantied for that long? So, it might be better to just buy bitcoins with current BFL hardware pricing. Orders in the first week or two are probably safe, but Im skeptical. Anyway, let's see what the engineer has to provide if/when he ever gets some details.

||bit

The average order is 200GH/s?! That's assuming we go by the data in this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

At current there are about 900 orders (into the 2500s). That thread has 38 listed orders. That's a pretty small sample. But here's what those 38 orders have listed:

6 SC Mini Rigs
65 SC Singles
53 Jalapenos

That's (6x1000) + (65x40) + (53x3.5) = ~8.8TH/s.     
8.8THs/38 orders = ~230GHs/order, which is about your estimate.

However, almost half of that is one order for 4 SC MR, so that will skew the scale a bit high.
Now lets be more realistic and subtract Gigavps's 4 SC MR order, and assume that there are not 25 people willing to put 120,000 USD for multiple rack mount rigs. that brings us down to:

(2x1000) + (65x40) + (53x3.5) = ~4.8TH/s.
4.8THs/37 orders = ~130GHs/order.

Our sample rate is about 4% of the total orders placed to date, so lets assume all 900 orders average the same as these 38 (not likely, but it's all the numbers we have).
25x8.8 = 220TH/s. Close to 20x the current difficulty. Or
25x4.8 = 120TH/s. Close to 10x the current difficulty.

You're talking somewhere between these two numbers.

There's another thread with data:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89538.0

Assuming each order was for only one of the relevant type of unit, we have 18460 Gh/114 orders = 162 Gh/order minimum. So the two sets of data roughly agree.

We have to keep in mind though that neither sample is representative since each consists of people enthusiastic enough to report their orders, and these people may be disposed toward larger orders. For all we know, the unreported orders might be dominated by orders for 1 single or a couple of Jalapenos. As a rough number that's easy to work with, I'm going to go with 100 Gh/order, with the assumption that this could be off by a factor of two or more either way (but is most likely on the low side). If they can cover the first 550 orders in the first production run, that's 55 Th +/- 2x coming online more or less at the same time. Yikes. I hope the pools will be ready for this.

[davidspitzer]

I just place an order for 8 Jalapenos and 10 Single SC's

[Serge]

I just place an order for 8 Jalapenos and 10 Single SC's

mind sharing order number?

[opentoe]

I don't have tons of money, so I just bought a Jally, about 30 seconds after they published the forms

I'm going to wait a minute before publishing this so IRC buddies have a bit of an upper hand

Lowest order numbers:

Code:

Jally    - Garr255 - 1656
Single   - OgNasty - 1657
Mini Rig - blackprapor - 1710

Also,

The test orders that Steve and I put through to their database entries were 1650-1655.  

So 1656 and 1657 are the lowest order numbers after the page was made public.

Woot! I get the first ASIC!

Congrats on your huge success; Bit-Pay is a great tool.

When you order using BTC, do they just give you their BTC address? I don't have that much money in my BTC wallet right now and I'm thinking about ordering an SC. I would imagine they'll just send me their BTC address....

Also, could so many people buying higher tasking hardware, could this really cause it harder / longer to get BTC?

Thanks.
Mike.

[opentoe]

Ok, screw it. Just placed an order on July 11th 2012 and the order number is 3163. I just ordered one SC. I was previously going to order a single, but only doing 832MH/s compared to the newer stuff is hard not to get. I wish everyone the best in their venture!!!! Please, wish me luck too!


Mike

[davidspitzer]

I just place an order for 8 Jalapenos and 10 Single SC's

mind sharing order number?

3146 and 3147

[Garr255]

I just place an order for 8 Jalapenos and 10 Single SC's

mind sharing order number?

3146 and 3147

Ahh too bad it wasn't 3145 (my robotics team number )

[Chefnet]

wow 1500 orders ...

[Garr255]

wo 1500 orders ...

Assuming an average $800 from each, that's $1,200,000. So all the theories about BFL not following through cannot be logically valid (yet), as they haven't made nearly enough sales for that to be in their best interest.

[sadpandatech]

wo 1500 orders ...

Assuming an average $800 from each, that's $1,200,000. So all the theories about BFL not following through cannot be logically valid (yet), as they haven't made nearly enough sales for that to be in their best interest.

I wonder how many of those 1500 order numbers correspond to completed trasnactions, real or otherwise.

[OmegaNemesis28]

wo 1500 orders ...

Assuming an average $800 from each, that's $1,200,000. So all the theories about BFL not following through cannot be logically valid (yet), as they haven't made nearly enough sales for that to be in their best interest.

I wonder how many of those 1500 order numbers correspond to completed trasnactions, real or otherwise.

yeah because I created an order and got 3000~ and I havent even paid yet. I was considering not doing it but I may just go through with it. I could've just not sent the money and ignored the order completely.

[Buckwheet]

They did not give me an updated order number when I changed my old single order into a new single order. So there are most likely order numbers that are not being tracked in your count.

My order was for two Singles and three Jalapenos with three more SC Singles being added.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

wo 1500 orders ...

Assuming an average $800 from each, that's $1,200,000. So all the theories about BFL not following through cannot be logically valid (yet), as they haven't made nearly enough sales for that to be in their best interest.

I wonder how many of those 1500 order numbers correspond to completed trasnactions, real or otherwise.

Maybe really small group of people are sending in ~20 fake orders a day across the planet from different fake ip addresses.
Just to make sure the speculation on the forums will maybe hold people from ordering.
I to, wonder...

[BlackPrapor]

wo 1500 orders ...

Assuming an average $800 from each, that's $1,200,000. So all the theories about BFL not following through cannot be logically valid (yet), as they haven't made nearly enough sales for that to be in their best interest.

I wonder how many of those 1500 order numbers correspond to completed trasnactions, real or otherwise.

Maybe really small group of people are sending in ~20 fake orders a day across the planet from different fake ip addresses.
Just to make sure the speculation on the forums will maybe hold people from ordering.
I to, wonder...

My guess is that out of those 2k orders, at least 1500 are real. If you take 100Ghs per order on average, that's around 150Ths pre ordered. Only BFL knows the real figures 

[bigasic]

purchased

3 jalepenos order number 3681

Also ordered 2 sc singels and 1 mini rig with sc upgrade, havent received the order info yet for those so Im assuming that the order number will be less than 3681 since I put in the order for the singles and the mini rig before the jalepenos, they say I wont lose my place in line until i get the order info to wire the money..(which I hope wont be too long)

My order number for the mini rig is 3543.. still havent received order info for the singles.....

AR

[Subo1977]

i Orderd 3 Jalapenos at 08/02/12.

orderno 4272

[322i0n]

the placed orders will not just be for bitcoin mining machines. they produce hardware for other industries.

[crazyates]

the placed orders will not just be for bitcoin mining machines. they produce hardware for other industries.

You don't actually believe that, do you?

On their website, they list these 4 industries before bitcoin mining:
Computational research
Medical imaging
Packet integrity verification
Generic fingerprinting engine

On their driver page, they have what appear to be valid download links. You ever tried clicking on them? There is no such software that uses their hardware in any way.

http://www.butterflylabs.com/drivers/

[abeaulieu]

the placed orders will not just be for bitcoin mining machines. they produce hardware for other industries.

You don't actually believe that, do you?

On their website, they list these 4 industries before bitcoin mining:
Computational research
Medical imaging
Packet integrity verification
Generic fingerprinting engine

On their driver page, they have what appear to be valid download links. You ever tried clicking on them? There is no such software that uses their hardware in any way.

http://www.butterflylabs.com/drivers/

The hardware is highly capable. Perhaps he will be developing for his own applications.