bb113


June 24, 2012, 03:33:09 AM 

So there are at least a few people here running multiple models that they pick and choose to trade based on, whether using computers or elliot wave theory. Do the events of earlier today put you at a disadvantage?
It seems to me every time one of these technical difficulties occurs the market becomes "wary" and kind of resets, negating recent info that has been included in the models.
I'm just interested to know how people deal with that situation.






Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.


mollison


June 24, 2012, 03:37:39 AM 

Do the events of earlier today put you at a disadvantage?
You are referring to the unintentional halt in trading at Gox?




bb113


June 24, 2012, 03:38:31 AM 

Do the events of earlier today put you at a disadvantage?
You are referring to the unintentional halt in trading at Gox? Yes, sorry.




bb113


June 24, 2012, 05:32:26 AM 

I think they are recalibrating right now...




bb113


June 24, 2012, 06:19:54 AM 

The data from the trading glitch has actually produced some extra divergence in my models—half a percent or so. But I don't like to throw out data, it will take me a little bit to find a way to work it out.
Thank you for your acknowledgement. I am 12 and appreciate it.




Spekulatius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000


June 24, 2012, 05:47:48 PM 

The data from the trading glitch has actually produced some extra divergence in my models—half a percent or so. But I don't like to throw out data, it will take me a little bit to find a way to work it out.
Thank you for your acknowledgement. I am 12 (years old?) and appreciate it.




bb113


June 24, 2012, 08:36:35 PM 

The data from the trading glitch has actually produced some extra divergence in my models—half a percent or so. But I don't like to throw out data, it will take me a little bit to find a way to work it out.
Thank you for your acknowledgement. I am 12 (years old?) and appreciate it. It just means I'm new at it.




Raize
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1004


June 26, 2012, 02:21:23 AM 

I want to learn about Kurtosis risk! Explain it like I am 5...




bb113


June 26, 2012, 02:27:57 AM 

I want to learn about Kurtosis risk! Explain it like I am 5... Its the risk someone will smack you in the back of the head when you least expect it and you'll bite that tongue off.





bb113


June 26, 2012, 02:54:40 AM 

Haha I was just answering your question.




TraderTimm
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1055


July 03, 2012, 07:46:43 AM 

BlackScholes and the assumption of a (normal) gaussian distribution in determining option pricing is one of the major flaws that blew up LTCM. The 'mean' should be thicker than the 'tails', and most price action disagrees. The number of two to three sigma events fall outside of the 'predicted' distribution, which means of course any assumptions based on that model are doomed to tailrisk of large magnitudes.
BTC is probably a more 'sane' market that anything out in the traded exchanges, if only by virtue of not having a crapload of subpennying frontrunning HighFrequency Trading algorithms dominating volume like the ES futures or the major Index stocks.

fortitudinem multis  catenum regit omnia



