["WAIT LIST"] BFL SC Pre-Order Information (Monarch orders too!)

[bitarrow]

8/18/2012,-,Y,0,0,1,-,- tytus

welcome to the club lol

[squall1066]

If we believed current orders is a constant then (at time of post)

Just for fun mind:-

5821 orders we know 185 (5821/185=31.4648) times this by total TH ordered so far (31.4648*30.2475=951.731538)

so If it was taken seriously would be just under 952TH. WOW LOL.

so 951.731538*0.1396983916718426=132861722.7048 difficulty  (0.1396983916718426 is difficulty per Mhs)

A 1TH rig would get you 951/1800=0.5283333333333333BTC Per day

Baring in mind all deliveries would have to be instant LOL!

[Chalkbot]

Came back to post that I'd recieved mine and realized I'd posted my order info into the wrong thread originally. Sorry about that, I ordered 3 Bitforce singles. You can take my entry out of the list:

08/01/2012  4329  N  0  3  0  -  -  Chalkbot

[Michail1]

If we believed current orders is a constant then (at time of post)

Just for fun mind:-

5821 orders we know 185 (5821/185=31.4648) times this by total TH ordered so far (31.4648*30.2475=951.731538)

so If it was taken seriously would be just under 952TH. WOW LOL.

so 951.731538*0.1396983916718426=132861722.7048 difficulty  (0.1396983916718426 is difficulty per Mhs)

A 1TH rig would get you 951/1800=0.5283333333333333BTC Per day

Baring in mind all deliveries would have to be instant LOL!

You are assuming that each and every order in the system was actually real and paid for.

I think it would be closer to about 3-5 times what is reported here since every person looking at BFL is most likely aware of this thread.

So, 3 times 30TH = 90TH.   And, that is probably at absolute most, since most orders went in at the beginning (especially for the Mini rigs).
REPORTED Orders have trailed off significantly even though the order numbers have increased.

[kroneko]

Sorry a little late on this as well -

08/01/2012  4241 N      1       0      0      -       -       kroneko
08/04/2012  4479 N      0       1      0      -       -       kroneko

[kroneko]

If we believed current orders is a constant then (at time of post)

Just for fun mind:-

5821 orders we know 185 (5821/185=31.4648) times this by total TH ordered so far (31.4648*30.2475=951.731538)

so If it was taken seriously would be just under 952TH. WOW LOL.

so 951.731538*0.1396983916718426=132861722.7048 difficulty  (0.1396983916718426 is difficulty per Mhs)

A 1TH rig would get you 951/1800=0.5283333333333333BTC Per day

Baring in mind all deliveries would have to be instant LOL!

You are assuming that each and every order in the system was actually real and paid for.

I think it would be closer to about 3-5 times what is reported here since every person looking at BFL is most likely aware of this thread.

So, 3 times 30TH = 90TH.   And, that is probably at absolute most, since most orders went in at the beginning (especially for the Mini rigs).
REPORTED Orders have trailed off significantly even though the order numbers have increased.

I'm in complete agreement with you - at this point projections based on what we know are purely conjecture, but there's several points that aid in grounding. 

First off we know that not every order goes through successfully (this being noted by several in this post already). 

Next, the point about people making purchases being aware of this thread is highly likely, leaving three reasons for not posting (1) Apathy, (2) Desire to be anonymous, (3) Waiting to hit 5 hour mark so they can post.  For the majority making a rig purchase, they're probably more likely than not forum members for a while ( assume if they are making ~30k purchase they have some interest in bitcointalk) so that places them in either category 1 or 2.  Most purchases un-reported I think are likely singles or jalapeños at low volume who are newer members (including myself). 

Finally, I think that there's several who are interested but don't go through with the purchase (even when the order is working correctly), just because they're unsure about going through with the transaction until there's a solid delivery. 

Ultimately, I believe BFL will deliver (otherwise I wouldn't have made an order), and they're ramping up for much higher volume on this product line.  But I think we won't see difficulty get to a point where mining isn't viable or profitable on ASICs in the next year - as of now ASICs aren't "off-the-shelf" mining equipment, there's a large number of potential customers waiting on a delivery before orders are being made.  The difficulty will increase, I just don't think to that degree within the year - if it does mining will decrease until it becomes financially lucrative for most miners, either way interesting times ahead!

[Joshwaa]

8/08/2012     4769     N     0     1     0       -     -     Joshwaa
8/14/2012     5210     N     0     1     0       -     -     Joshwaa

[SgtSpike]

If we believed current orders is a constant then (at time of post)

Just for fun mind:-

5821 orders we know 185 (5821/185=31.4648) times this by total TH ordered so far (31.4648*30.2475=951.731538)

so If it was taken seriously would be just under 952TH. WOW LOL.

so 951.731538*0.1396983916718426=132861722.7048 difficulty  (0.1396983916718426 is difficulty per Mhs)

A 1TH rig would get you 951/1800=0.5283333333333333BTC Per day

Baring in mind all deliveries would have to be instant LOL!

You are assuming that each and every order in the system was actually real and paid for.

I think it would be closer to about 3-5 times what is reported here since every person looking at BFL is most likely aware of this thread.

So, 3 times 30TH = 90TH.   And, that is probably at absolute most, since most orders went in at the beginning (especially for the Mini rigs).
REPORTED Orders have trailed off significantly even though the order numbers have increased.

SHHH! Stop being reasonable - I'd rather have everyone think that we'll be at 900TH in two months and stop ordering more ASICs!

[squall1066]

If we believed current orders is a constant then (at time of post)

Just for fun mind:-

5821 orders we know 185 (5821/185=31.4648) times this by total TH ordered so far (31.4648*30.2475=951.731538)

so If it was taken seriously would be just under 952TH. WOW LOL.

so 951.731538*0.1396983916718426=132861722.7048 difficulty  (0.1396983916718426 is difficulty per Mhs)

A 1TH rig would get you 951/1800=0.5283333333333333BTC Per day

Baring in mind all deliveries would have to be instant LOL!

You are assuming that each and every order in the system was actually real and paid for.

I think it would be closer to about 3-5 times what is reported here since every person looking at BFL is most likely aware of this thread.

So, 3 times 30TH = 90TH.   And, that is probably at absolute most, since most orders went in at the beginning (especially for the Mini rigs).
REPORTED Orders have trailed off significantly even though the order numbers have increased.

SHHH! Stop being reasonable - I'd rather have everyone think that we'll be at 900TH in two months and stop ordering more ASICs!

This was my plan, LOL, I don't think anyone read "just for fun" at the top.

[mitak64]

09/11/2012    7782    Y  0    1  0       -    -    mitak64

[bigasic]

Why do you think that BFL doesn't give out how many have actually ordered? I was thinking about ordering some more sc mini rigs, but how do we know that they haven't sold 500 TH's worth or more? I wont be buying any more until I get more info on what has been sold and to see what other companies are doing. For all we know, a  sc mini rig may only be worth 1k dollars or so.. Not 30k..

I think its not smart to invest any more into BFL right now. Not until we get a good idea of what the difficulty/BFL sales) is going to be... I'm already gambling, even though my orders were placed in the first month.

Those that are purchasing anything from here on out are REALLY taking a risk....

I bet that the price sc mini rig will be dramatically lower. Whos going to invest 30k when its impossible to ever recoup that much?

Now its a wait and see game..

BTW, as to order  numbers being wrong, I totally believe that the are grossly overestimated. When I was ordering, I actually placed like 4 or 5 different orders until everything was figured out and i made my decision on what to actually pay for...I guarantee that many people made just totally bogus numbers to mess with people and others were undecided and just haven't paid, etc. Only BFL knows the exact orders and they aint talkin'...

[WhitePhantom]

Why do you think that BFL doesn't give out how many have actually ordered? I was thinking about ordering some more sc mini rigs, but how do we know that they haven't sold 500 TH's worth or more? I wont be buying any more until I get more info on what has been sold and to see what other companies are doing. For all we know, a  sc mini rig may only be worth 1k dollars or so.. Not 30k..

I think its not smart to invest any more into BFL right now. Not until we get a good idea of what the difficulty/BFL sales) is going to be... I'm already gambling, even though my orders were placed in the first month.

Those that are purchasing anything from here on out are REALLY taking a risk....

I bet that the price sc mini rig will be dramatically lower. Whos going to invest 30k when its impossible to ever recoup that much?

Now its a wait and see game..

BTW, as to order  numbers being wrong, I totally believe that the are grossly overestimated. When I was ordering, I actually placed like 4 or 5 different orders until everything was figured out and i made my decision on what to actually pay for...I guarantee that many people made just totally bogus numbers to mess with people and others were undecided and just haven't paid, etc. Only BFL knows the exact orders and they aint talkin'...

FUD

[urlord]

Date Paid       
Order Number   
Trade-In (Y/N)   
Qty SC Jalapeno   
Qty SC Single   
Qty SC Mini Rig   
Date Received   
Wait Time   
User

9/12/12 7906 N 1 0 0  -- -- urlord

[bigasic]

Why do you think that BFL doesn't give out how many have actually ordered? I was thinking about ordering some more sc mini rigs, but how do we know that they haven't sold 500 TH's worth or more? I wont be buying any more until I get more info on what has been sold and to see what other companies are doing. For all we know, a  sc mini rig may only be worth 1k dollars or so.. Not 30k..

I think its not smart to invest any more into BFL right now. Not until we get a good idea of what the difficulty/BFL sales) is going to be... I'm already gambling, even though my orders were placed in the first month.

Those that are purchasing anything from here on out are REALLY taking a risk....

I bet that the price sc mini rig will be dramatically lower. Whos going to invest 30k when its impossible to ever recoup that much?

Now its a wait and see game..

BTW, as to order  numbers being wrong, I totally believe that the are grossly overestimated. When I was ordering, I actually placed like 4 or 5 different orders until everything was figured out and i made my decision on what to actually pay for...I guarantee that many people made just totally bogus numbers to mess with people and others were undecided and just haven't paid, etc. Only BFL knows the exact orders and they aint talkin'...

FUD

Of course its FUD. I have invested over 100k worth into BFL, trust me, Im rooting for them big time..But, If were starting to look at them today? yes, I probably would put in an order for a single or a jalepeno, but to lay out tens of thousands of dollars and not even having a clue on whats going to be delivered before you actually get them is a HUGE risk.. Even those of us that ordered in the first month are taking that risk.

Seriously, would you pay 30k for something that may not generate that much over a 4 years time?.. Granted, there are a lot of unknowns, if the bitcoin  jumps to 1000 us, then it really doesn't matter, but im assuming that the coins is at 15-18 by Jan...

All im saying is that its a HUGE risk to order now,  not saying that you shouldnt, anyone can do whatever with their money, but for myself, without knowing how many they have actually sold, Its hard to guage the income potential. Im not buying any more because I have a feeling that in a few months the sc mini rig will be selling for much less than it is today...

It's actually a good business decision not to let everyone know, that way they still receive their asking price. I can guarantee you if we actually knew the real  numbers, they wouldn't be getting as many orders as they are now... I still we be upgrading my single that i haven't paid for already. But until I get a good feel for what has been sold, etc I will be playing the waiting game. Granted, it could cost me money for doing this, but it could also be saving me some, too...

[mitak64]

09/14/2012    8085    Y   0   1  0       -    -    mitak64

[katie.mckinley]

To be added to list, Post your date, Order number, When order was paid, Jalapeno/SC/Mini Rig quantity, And when they come in your shipped date.

9/14/2012
Order Number 8087
Paid 9/14/2012
1 Jalapeno

[Soros Shorts]

Might as well join in the fun:

06/27/2012 2355 Y 0 1 0 - - Soros Shorts
08/31/2012 6936 Y 0 1 0 - - Soros Shorts
09/01/2012 6977 N 1 0 0 - - Soros Shorts
09/05/2012 7325 Y 0 1 0 - - Soros Shorts
09/14/2012 8116 N 0 1 0 - - Soros Shorts

[Akido]

09/14/2012    8012    N    0    1    0    -    -    Akido

[vapourminer]

6/24/2012  1851  N  1  0  0  -  -  vapourminer

[Lotus]

9/15/2012 8233 N 2 0 0 - - Lotus