crazyates
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September 25, 2012, 01:43:03 AM |
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Date Paid - 2012/7/16 Order Number - 3347 Trade-In (Y/N) - Y Qty SC Jalapeno - 0 Qty SC Single - 1 Qty SC Mini Rig - 0 User - Crazyates
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mrb
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September 25, 2012, 06:51:25 AM |
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30.768 Th confirmed so far... 455 Confirmed orders...
67.62GH per order average... * 7029 orders = 475.315Th
19x Current ~25Th
No adjustments for unfilled orders
One adjustment people are leaving out: People were/are still ordering FPGA Singles on the same order system, they are also included in the order # range. Why would people still be ordering FPGA singles? That would be plain stupid and a waste of money. Your ROI will grow tremendously when the ASICs start to come in. I think that's because some people don't believe in miracles. Planned efficiency of SC ASICs looks incredible. Think so? Please do put you money where you mouth is. Bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665
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VeeMiner
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September 25, 2012, 07:48:26 AM |
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even if all the orders were true (for example I cancelled one of mein so I'm sure there are more people like me) and the difficulty will go up by around 20x, we will still break even after half a year of running the BFL single. I think that's still an awesome ROI
Difficulty Factor 57282800.0 Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 40000.0 Exchange Rate ($/฿) 12.05005
Coins Dollars per Day ฿0.70 $8.46 per Week ฿4.92 $59.24 per Month ฿21.35 $257.29
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dyingdreams
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September 25, 2012, 12:09:30 PM |
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My order #3976 is on the list twice.
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nedbert9
Sr. Member
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September 25, 2012, 01:44:54 PM |
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even if all the orders were true (for example I cancelled one of mein so I'm sure there are more people like me) and the difficulty will go up by around 20x, we will still break even after half a year of running the BFL single. I think that's still an awesome ROI
Difficulty Factor 57282800.0 Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 40000.0 Exchange Rate ($/฿) 12.05005
Coins Dollars per Day ฿0.70 $8.46 per Week ฿4.92 $59.24 per Month ฿21.35 $257.29
What we should be worried about is a post initial delivery flood of ASICs. Consider this. Approx. 3 small time operations, 2-3 individuals each, outside of BFL contributed to FPGA options for Bitcoin mining. Only two of the small FPGA operations will move to providing ASIC products. These small operations will rely on electronics assembly companies to produce units in rather small batch quantities. With BFL having confirmed 22 employees, purchasing PCB SMT assembly equipment typically found in high volume assembly, we must consider BFL's capital and operating expenses, their need to make a profit and what impact that will have on Bitcoin. Once BFL's capital investments are recouped, e.g. assembly equipment and ASIC NRE, BFL will be free to produce ASIC's at an estimated cost of 10-20 USD, including the PCB and housing. Then we should add on operating expenses such as labor, executive compensation, facilities, etc. With all of this in mind the smart miner should keep in mind that Bitcoin is BFL's only market. That said, with BFL's sole profit center being Bitcoin there is a large incentive for BFL to sell as many ASIC's as possible at whatever cost the market will bare. The Bitcoin mining community may be faced with a harsh reality that BFL would be the only party that would make a profit with certainty.
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squall1066
Copper Member
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September 25, 2012, 02:00:12 PM |
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My order #3976 is on the list twice.
Whoops ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) sorted and table updated.
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SgtSpike
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September 25, 2012, 03:32:57 PM |
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even if all the orders were true (for example I cancelled one of mein so I'm sure there are more people like me) and the difficulty will go up by around 20x, we will still break even after half a year of running the BFL single. I think that's still an awesome ROI
Difficulty Factor 57282800.0 Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 40000.0 Exchange Rate ($/฿) 12.05005
Coins Dollars per Day ฿0.70 $8.46 per Week ฿4.92 $59.24 per Month ฿21.35 $257.29
What we should be worried about is a post initial delivery flood of ASICs. Consider this. Approx. 3 small time operations, 2-3 individuals each, outside of BFL contributed to FPGA options for Bitcoin mining. Only two of the small FPGA operations will move to providing ASIC products. These small operations will rely on electronics assembly companies to produce units in rather small batch quantities. With BFL having confirmed 22 employees, purchasing PCB SMT assembly equipment typically found in high volume assembly, we must consider BFL's capital and operating expenses, their need to make a profit and what impact that will have on Bitcoin. Once BFL's capital investments are recouped, e.g. assembly equipment and ASIC NRE, BFL will be free to produce ASIC's at an estimated cost of 10-20 USD, including the PCB and housing. Then we should add on operating expenses such as labor, executive compensation, facilities, etc. With all of this in mind the smart miner should keep in mind that Bitcoin is BFL's only market. That said, with BFL's sole profit center being Bitcoin there is a large incentive for BFL to sell as many ASIC's as possible at whatever cost the market will bare. The Bitcoin mining community may be faced with a harsh reality that BFL would be the only party that would make a profit with certainty. *bear But this is AWESOME! I don't know why people are complaining when we should be celebrating. The closer that BFL and the other ASIC providers can get to selling at cost, the better for the community as a whole. If they sell 1,000 singles at 40 GH/s, we have 40 TH/s of protection. If they sell 100,000 singles at 40 GH/s, we have 4,000 TH/s of protection. The cheaper they are, the less attackable the network will be!
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VeeMiner
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 25, 2012, 03:39:01 PM |
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even if all the orders were true (for example I cancelled one of mein so I'm sure there are more people like me) and the difficulty will go up by around 20x, we will still break even after half a year of running the BFL single. I think that's still an awesome ROI
Difficulty Factor 57282800.0 Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 40000.0 Exchange Rate ($/฿) 12.05005
Coins Dollars per Day ฿0.70 $8.46 per Week ฿4.92 $59.24 per Month ฿21.35 $257.29
What we should be worried about is a post initial delivery flood of ASICs. Consider this. Approx. 3 small time operations, 2-3 individuals each, outside of BFL contributed to FPGA options for Bitcoin mining. Only two of the small FPGA operations will move to providing ASIC products. These small operations will rely on electronics assembly companies to produce units in rather small batch quantities. With BFL having confirmed 22 employees, purchasing PCB SMT assembly equipment typically found in high volume assembly, we must consider BFL's capital and operating expenses, their need to make a profit and what impact that will have on Bitcoin. Once BFL's capital investments are recouped, e.g. assembly equipment and ASIC NRE, BFL will be free to produce ASIC's at an estimated cost of 10-20 USD, including the PCB and housing. Then we should add on operating expenses such as labor, executive compensation, facilities, etc. With all of this in mind the smart miner should keep in mind that Bitcoin is BFL's only market. That said, with BFL's sole profit center being Bitcoin there is a large incentive for BFL to sell as many ASIC's as possible at whatever cost the market will bare. The Bitcoin mining community may be faced with a harsh reality that BFL would be the only party that would make a profit with certainty. there's nothing wrong with that... if the cost of ASIC single SC would go down in the future, I'm sure to buy couple more. There are also bunch of other subjects announcing ASIC as we speak. I f even half of them actually delivered a product, there will be a competitive market, which means lower prices, which means it will be easier for us miners to get a good and cheap product. Only people losing money will be the ones heavily invested in GPU/FPGA chips.
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crazyates
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September 25, 2012, 06:07:56 PM |
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The cheaper they are, the less attackable the network will be!
The more Singles that are sold, the harder the network is to attack. It also makes it harder for someone to justify a $1300 piece of equipment that only makes 0.15BTC a day because the difficulty is so high. The price is going to have to rise for LOTS of ASICs to be worth it.
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burger
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September 25, 2012, 07:25:19 PM |
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Date Paid - 2012/9/25 Order Number - 9252 Trade-In (Y/N) - N Qty SC Jalapeno - 2 Qty SC Single - 0 Qty SC Mini Rig - 0 User - burger
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wksantiago
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September 25, 2012, 07:39:29 PM |
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Gents, I just got this: "This is to confirm that your order no. 9000, pay-dated 9/22/2012, for 1 BitForce Jalapeno has been successfully entered into our system. We will notify you with tracking information when your order ships. Thank you for your interest in Butterfly Labs, Inc. and for your order. Kind regards," From Butterfly Labs Inc Its moving! ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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If my posts has been helpful, thank me here: BTC: bc1qp0xtvck64qhvg6man0fjgy2jl3l6vwkctngjc4 Bitrated user: wksantiago. (PGP Fingerprint: 2199 0685 3d0f 29eb f0aa 40a5 1cd9 d426 66ae a802)
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nedbert9
Sr. Member
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September 25, 2012, 07:56:21 PM |
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there's nothing wrong with that... ... Only people losing money will be the ones heavily invested in GPU/FPGA chips.
The cheaper they are, the less attackable the network will be!
The more Singles that are sold, the harder the network is to attack. It also makes it harder for someone to justify a $1300 piece of equipment that only makes 0.15BTC a day because the difficulty is so high. The price is going to have to rise for LOTS of ASICs to be worth it. Let's step back a moment and inspect fundamentals. Bitcoin protocol subsidy fundamentals. Securing the network is all well and good, but without facts it means nothing. Bitcoin protocol provides a subsidy to miners to ensure network security. This subsidy, and how exactly how much of this subsidy equates to profits compared to operating costs is available to miners, will dictate how secure (total network capacity) the network will be. An ASIC vendor, post NRE payoff, has a large profit margin. These vendors can drop ASIC pricing tremendously based on miner profitability targets. Those that adopt ASIC sooner, at a higher price point, may be left with longer ROI periods than those that wait to purchase. ASIC vendors will be in total control of miner ROI. They can drop from 1300 USD / unit to 100 USD / unit until miner subsidy is maximally diluted compared to their cost of production. It's a wonderful business opportunity and an insidious profit extraction from Bitcoin miners.
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SgtSpike
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September 25, 2012, 08:28:22 PM |
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there's nothing wrong with that... ... Only people losing money will be the ones heavily invested in GPU/FPGA chips.
The cheaper they are, the less attackable the network will be!
The more Singles that are sold, the harder the network is to attack. It also makes it harder for someone to justify a $1300 piece of equipment that only makes 0.15BTC a day because the difficulty is so high. The price is going to have to rise for LOTS of ASICs to be worth it. Let's step back a moment and inspect fundamentals. Bitcoin protocol subsidy fundamentals. Securing the network is all well and good, but without facts it means nothing. Bitcoin protocol provides a subsidy to miners to ensure network security. This subsidy, and how exactly how much of this subsidy equates to profits compared to operating costs is available to miners, will dictate how secure (total network capacity) the network will be. An ASIC vendor, post NRE payoff, has a large profit margin. These vendors can drop ASIC pricing tremendously based on miner profitability targets. Those that adopt ASIC sooner, at a higher price point, may be left with longer ROI periods than those that wait to purchase. ASIC vendors will be in total control of miner ROI. They can drop from 1300 USD / unit to 100 USD / unit until miner subsidy is maximally diluted compared to their cost of production. It's a wonderful business opportunity and an insidious profit extraction from Bitcoin miners. I'm so tired of hearing this argument. If you don't think ASICs will make a profit, then don't buy them.
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Jack1Rip1BurnIt
Sr. Member
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Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks
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September 26, 2012, 02:44:46 AM |
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I personally can't wait for asic devices because of the electricity and ultimately heat savings that are gonna be involved. I'm about tired of this hot ass room and a high ass light bill. With these projected power usage details that we are receiving from ALL of the asic producers, I can pretty much count on my future light bills will be almost the same as if I was not mining at all. That is going to be freaking awesome! What gets me is how many people sound pissed about the switch that is about to occur. There were so many threads and posts about saving electricity and getting the best mh/w ratio before the announcement of asics. I guess everybody can't be happy, and some can never be. I still will miss tinkering and maintaining all of my gpus, but I will be so happy that I can finally play some good games and not worry about how many bitcoins I'm losing. I also completely agree with SgtSpike that securing the network is fanstastic and completely necessary for Bitcoin to survive and become as successful as we all want it to become.
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Successful trades with bels, misterbigg, ChrisNelson, shackleford, geniusboy91, and Isokivi.
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crazyates
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September 26, 2012, 03:14:21 AM |
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Those that adopt ASIC sooner, at a higher price point, may be left with longer ROI periods than those that wait to purchase.
That's what I've been thinking for a while. When BFL first announced preorders, the price per BTC was half what it was today. This means you can buy an ASIC for half what it cost you 3 months ago.
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Aahzman
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September 26, 2012, 01:12:16 PM |
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Order 9311 - Submitted/Paid 13:10UTC 26-09-12 - 2 BFLJalapenos - No Trade-in - Aahzman
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2weiX
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this space intentionally left blank
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September 26, 2012, 01:17:07 PM |
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Those that adopt ASIC sooner, at a higher price point, may be left with longer ROI periods than those that wait to purchase.
That's what I've been thinking for a while. When BFL first announced preorders, the price per BTC was half what it was today. This means you can buy an ASIC for half what it cost you 3 months ago. that's why I paid in fiat.
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K1773R
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/dev/null
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September 26, 2012, 04:54:09 PM |
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09/26/2012 9333 N 1 0 0 - - K1773R count me in ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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[GPG Public Key]BTC/DVC/TRC/FRC: 1 K1773RbXRZVRQSSXe9N6N2MUFERvrdu6y ANC/XPM A K1773RTmRKtvbKBCrUu95UQg5iegrqyeA NMC: N K1773Rzv8b4ugmCgX789PbjewA9fL9Dy1 LTC: L Ki773RBuPepQH8E6Zb1ponoCvgbU7hHmd EMC: E K1773RxUes1HX1YAGMZ1xVYBBRUCqfDoF BQC: b K1773R1APJz4yTgRkmdKQhjhiMyQpJgfN
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Jebus
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September 26, 2012, 06:56:24 PM |
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oh man. I know they've changed the wording to "Late October/Early November" but i'm getting pretty excited about this. So close!
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xunknownx
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September 27, 2012, 02:52:59 AM |
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if i order a sc single now, aprox when i expect something since i'm going to be at the bottom of the list?
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