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Author Topic: earnings from bfl sc mini rig  (Read 4137 times)
lolwut
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June 26, 2012, 12:37:09 AM
 #1

can anyone post accurate earning information for 1 SC mini rig @ 1th/s?

Every damn calculator i find shows me different results. I'm looking for a breakdown with current difficulty and exchange rate.

please and thanks
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Paladin69
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June 26, 2012, 12:41:06 AM
 #2

Current calculators aren't taking into account the huge rise in difficulty after the dust settles.

I would guess the same as before with their FPGA's.  The current mini-rig that is shipping is about $2,000 per month maybe?  Once the rewards half I guess it'll be $1,000 a month until bitcoin increases in value.
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June 26, 2012, 12:54:54 AM
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Current calculators aren't taking into account the huge rise in difficulty after the dust settles.

I would guess the same as before with their FPGA's.  The current mini-rig that is shipping is about $2,000 per month maybe?  Once the rewards half I guess it'll be $1,000 a month until bitcoin increases in value.

I was talking about the earnings on the ASIC hardware, at 1,000gh/s, even just at current difficulty. What would it earn if I had one right now?
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June 26, 2012, 12:58:33 AM
 #4

Current calculators aren't taking into account the huge rise in difficulty after the dust settles.

I would guess the same as before with their FPGA's.  The current mini-rig that is shipping is about $2,000 per month maybe?  Once the rewards half I guess it'll be $1,000 a month until bitcoin increases in value.

I was talking about the earnings on the ASIC hardware, at 1,000gh/s, even just at current difficulty. What would it earn if I had one right now?

Probably more than $100,000/month. Enough to pay off the rig in less than two weeks. And I suspect if you just ordered ASIC hardware now, you will still be able to pay off the equipment faster than you could pay off a GPU today, perhaps even within 2 or 3 months. I suspect there are enough skpetics not ordering, factors of a tight economy limiting risk takers from buying, etc...
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June 26, 2012, 12:58:42 AM
 #5

What sites did you try? On bitcoinx i get about 582BTC a day

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
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June 26, 2012, 01:10:54 AM
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Assuming that the difficulty quadruples after they release and the price of Bitcoin stays the same until then, no electricity costs factored in, roughly $27k a month.
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June 26, 2012, 01:24:45 AM
 #7

Quit looking for calculators.  They are useless.  If BFL even delivers what they claim (doubtful), the difficulty is going to shoot up so fast that it doesn't matter.

There is literally no way to accurately calculate what you will earn from those chips unless you have inside information to the actual specs (which won't be what was in the "press release"), the actual amount ordered, and the amounts being shipped each day/week/month.

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June 26, 2012, 01:41:13 AM
 #8

Current calculators aren't taking into account the huge rise in difficulty after the dust settles.

I would guess the same as before with their FPGA's.  The current mini-rig that is shipping is about $2,000 per month maybe?  Once the rewards half I guess it'll be $1,000 a month until bitcoin increases in value.

I was talking about the earnings on the ASIC hardware, at 1,000gh/s, even just at current difficulty. What would it earn if I had one right now?

฿582.55 a day which seems close enough, as if the network is 12th/s now which it seems to be add 1 and you get 1/13*7200=553.84 according to my math.



http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php
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June 26, 2012, 02:31:20 AM
 #9

I'm partial to http://bitcoinma.appspot.com/ which doesn't seem to get used often. Works great.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
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June 26, 2012, 02:33:51 AM
 #10

Current calculators aren't taking into account the huge rise in difficulty after the dust settles.

I would guess the same as before with their FPGA's.  The current mini-rig that is shipping is about $2,000 per month maybe?  Once the rewards half I guess it'll be $1,000 a month until bitcoin increases in value.

I was talking about the earnings on the ASIC hardware, at 1,000gh/s, even just at current difficulty. What would it earn if I had one right now?

฿582.55 a day which seems close enough, as if the network is 12th/s now which it seems to be add 1 and you get 1/13*7200=553.84 according to my math.



http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

I get the same numbers without adjusting difficulty for the 1TH. $582.55 per day.
http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com/?difficulty=1726566.5592&hashrate=1000000&exchangerate=6.30&bitcoinsperblock=50.00&rigcost=500.00&powerconsumption=200.00&powercost=0.10&investmentperiod=355

I'm partial to http://bitcoinma.appspot.com/ which doesn't seem to get used often. Works great.
Thanks for that. Saved it and will check it out. I like the clean look of it.

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June 26, 2012, 03:56:49 AM
 #11

Here's an easy way to look at it.

144 blocks are found each day by the bitcoin network at-large. Your slice of those blocks is proportional to your contribution to the total network hashrate.

Before December 2012, there are 50 BTC / block; afterwards, 25 BTC / block. Let's assume the latter, hereon.

144*25 = 3600 BTC mined per day = 23,000$ mined per day

If we assume (1) current BTC/USD remains constant, (2) the current hashrate is negligibly small compared to post-ASIC, and (3) the Hashes/second/$ is roughly constant between the BFL SC products, then we get:

If BFL sells       23,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is     1 day.
If BFL sells     230,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is    10 days.
If BFL sells   2,300,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is  100 days.
If BFL sells 23,000,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is 1000 days.

The funny thing is, it didn't matter how BFL priced their hardware on a per unit basis, the above analysis is all the same!
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June 27, 2012, 07:15:47 PM
 #12

Here's an easy way to look at it.

144 blocks are found each day by the bitcoin network at-large. Your slice of those blocks is proportional to your contribution to the total network hashrate.

Before December 2012, there are 50 BTC / block; afterwards, 25 BTC / block. Let's assume the latter, hereon.

144*25 = 3600 BTC mined per day = 23,000$ mined per day

If we assume (1) current BTC/USD remains constant, (2) the current hashrate is negligibly small compared to post-ASIC, and (3) the Hashes/second/$ is roughly constant between the BFL SC products, then we get:

If BFL sells       23,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is     1 day.
If BFL sells     230,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is    10 days.
If BFL sells   2,300,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is  100 days.
If BFL sells 23,000,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is 1000 days.

The funny thing is, it didn't matter how BFL priced their hardware on a per unit basis, the above analysis is all the same!

This is pure fantasy. Assumption 2) is only valid if they sell a lot of hardware. $23,000 will buy less than 1Th, and $230,000 will buy less than 10Th, neither of which will make current hashrate "negligibly small" compared to post-ASIC. Also, a lot depends on how quickly they ramp up production. Presumably those that get units in the first shipment will do pretty well, but we don't know how quickly the network will grow after the initial shipment comes online. So it's not just a matter of how much hardware they sell, but how quickly they get it out. As some people have already said, it's almost impossible to estimate ROI accurately - there are way too many unknowns.
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June 27, 2012, 07:30:49 PM
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If we assume (1) current BTC/USD remains constant, (2) the current hashrate is negligibly small compared to post-ASIC, and (3) the Hashes/second/$ is roughly constant between the BFL SC products, then we get:

If BFL sells       23,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is     1 day.
If BFL sells     230,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is    10 days.
If BFL sells   2,300,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is  100 days.
If BFL sells 23,000,000$ worth of hardware, then the Pay-Back Period is 1000 days.

The funny thing is, it didn't matter how BFL priced their hardware on a per unit basis, the above analysis is all the same!

This is pure fantasy. Assumption 2) is only valid if they sell a lot of hardware. $23,000 will buy less than 1Th, and $230,000 will buy less than 10Th, neither of which will make current hashrate "negligibly small" compared to post-ASIC. Also, a lot depends on how quickly they ramp up production. Presumably those that get units in the first shipment will do pretty well, but we don't know how quickly the network will grow after the initial shipment comes online. So it's not just a matter of how much hardware they sell, but how quickly they get it out. As some people have already said, it's almost impossible to estimate ROI accurately - there are way too many unknowns.
so true. For us obsessive recalculators, BFL have been kind enough to keep trowing out little tidbits that should allow us to atleast close the gap on the error margin in making some estimations. They were kind enough earlier in reponse to another thread asking about place in line for switching orders from singles to single SC to state in reference to the amount of product being deleivered at first drop. Sorry, can't link the thread as they are too many at this point. Either way, they stated that 'almost everyone would be on ok shape'. This pretty flexible but tells me they had atleast crossed the threshold in orders of what they can deliver the first go. I would personally stamp that number at maybe 500-600 orders. Would be hard to speculate on which units exactly, but maybe 400 Jalepenos, 200 SC Single, and a handful of SC rigs(15 or less). I will keep watching for those whee bits of info to help narrow it down further. wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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June 27, 2012, 07:31:56 PM
 #14

Here's an easy way to look at it.

144 blocks are found each day by the bitcoin network at-large. Your slice of those blocks is proportional to your contribution to the total network hashrate.

Before December 2012, there are 50 BTC / block; afterwards, 25 BTC / block. Let's assume the latter, hereon.

144*25 = 3600 BTC mined per day = 23,000$ mined per day

You had me up till here, and then you lost me. Try working it from another angle.

Lets assume 3600 BTC per day (constant, no variables here).

Lets say the total network right now is 15TH. BFL throws 5 more TH into the mix with their first batch, 1 of which is a 1TH SC MR.

You are now 1TH out of 20TH. You own 5% of the network, which means you get 5% of the BTC. 3600 x .05 = 180 BTC/day. This is after the difficulty adjusts, so you will make lots more when you first plug it in.

However, lets say BFL ships their 2nd batch that adds another 10TH. You now own 1TH out of 30TH. You just got demoted to only 3.3% of the network. You're now only making 120 BTC/day.
BFL ships round 3, and adds another 10TH. You own 1/40th of the network, which gives you 90 BTC/day.

That answer your question?

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dirtycat
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June 27, 2012, 07:45:16 PM
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poop!
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June 27, 2012, 08:47:02 PM
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Difficulty Factor=1726566.55919

Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second)=1,000,000.0

Exchange Rate ($/฿)@ $5 per BTC

per Day=฿582.55-$2,912.75

per Week=฿4,077.86-$20,389.28

per Month=฿17,709.55-$88,547.75

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June 27, 2012, 08:51:29 PM
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Difficulty Factor=1726566.55919

Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second)=1,000,000.0

Exchange Rate ($/฿)@ $5 per BTC

per Day=฿582.55-$2,912.75

per Week=฿4,077.86-$20,389.28

per Month=฿17,709.55-$88,547.75


Your 582 BTC a day is a bit optimistic. You're not factoring in the reward half, or the rise in difficulty between then and now (and one month after the SC MRs come online). You're not going to make 88k USD in the first month.

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June 27, 2012, 08:58:11 PM
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Difficulty Factor=1726566.55919

Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second)=1,000,000.0

Exchange Rate ($/฿)@ $5 per BTC

per Day=฿582.55-$2,912.75

per Week=฿4,077.86-$20,389.28

per Month=฿17,709.55-$88,547.75


Your 582 BTC a day is a bit optimistic. You're not factoring in the reward half, or the rise in difficulty between then and now (and one month after the SC MRs come online). You're not going to make 88k USD in the first month.


I did it a todays rates just for kicks  Grin

Here's my guesstamate of 50TH diff :

Difficulty Factor 6569200.0

Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second) 1000000.0

Exchange Rate ($/฿)@ $5 per BTC

per Day=฿153.11-$765.55

per Week=฿1,071.77-$5,358.87

per Month=฿4,654.56-$23,272.79

Just divide by 2 for reward halving.

"If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day long, you are the asshole."  -Raylan Givens
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Dargo
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June 27, 2012, 10:00:36 PM
 #19

Here's something simplistic but reasonably accurate (I think). Right now with GPU/FPGA you can get around 0.0009 Th (=0.9 Gh) for $600 = 0.0000015 Th/$ (or 1.5 Mh/$) (very rough - I'm thinking of the BFL single, but GPU is reasonably comparable). The SC MR is 1 Th for $30,000 = 0.00003 Th/$. So, very roughly speaking, BFL ASIC is 20x better in terms of hashrate/$.

Ignoring power cost (which varies widely anyway), BFL ASIC mining will be more profitable than mining pre-ASIC at least until the post-ASIC difficulty reaches 20x pre-ASIC. After that, it will still be better depending on your power cost. How long to ROI? That's much harder to estimate, but assuming you could pay off $600 invested in 0.0009 Th in about 200 days pre-ASIC, BFL ASIC will do better than that at least until post-ASIC difficulty reaches 20x pre-ASIC.

So, to boil it down to something very simple but not totally off-base, investing in BFL ASIC will be a better investment than what is currently available so long as you get your ASIC equipment quickly enough that the difficulty doesn't increase 20x over what it is now within 200 days after you get your equipment. Of course, you could still pay off the investment, even within 200 days, if difficulty increases faster than this.

Let's use these numbers and assume that the same amount of $ gets invested in BFL ASIC as is invested currently in the entire network. The current network is 12.5 Th. That divided by 0.0000015 Th/$ is $8.3 million. $8.3 million worth of BFL ASIC would be 250 Th. 250 Th is exactly 20x the current network speed (this shouldn't be surprising). So, basically, BFL ASIC will be more profitable than what we've had pre-ASIC recently until miners pour more money into BFL equipment than they have so far building the entire current network (and assuming that BFL or a competitor doesn't drop prices before this happens).

I'm skeptical that this is going to happen very quickly. Some people (bitlane for example) are, I think, investing a good deal more in ASIC than they had in pre-ASIC, but with so many others taking a "wait and see" or "I refuse to do business with BFL" or "I'm out for good" stance, I think it's going to be a while before miners collectively throw $8.3 million BFL's way. At the very least, I think people getting their ASIC equipment early in the game will get it paid off OK, and have a decent run after that. Also, there's the point that it will take BFL a while to produce 250 Th of gear.

I know this doesn't directly answer the OP's original question, but I fail to see how it's helpful to know what you would earn with an SC MR right now, if, per impossible, you had one. By the time you get one, the difficulty will already be rising dramatically. So, I think it's more interesting to ask what needs to happen before you need to start worrying about an ASIC investment getting less profitable than what's currently available. And the basic answer is, miners need to throw as much $ at BFL as they have so far building the entire network, and then all that money needs to be converted to shipped units actually hashing. The question you need to ask yourself is, how long do you think it will take for that to happen?        
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June 27, 2012, 10:05:32 PM
 #20

Dargo - line breaks.  They are your friend.
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