BFL ASIC & Difficulty Profile

[Dargo]

I noticed by the way there about 70 orders tracked right now.
These 70 orders stand for 12 TH.
Though there 1400 orders placed by now.
What if you take these 70 orders as an average:

1400 / 70 =  20

Added computing power based on 1400 orders: 20 * 13TH =  260 TH

Difficulty increase factor: 260 TH / 12 TH = 21~

New diffuculty: 21 * 1751454 = 36780534

Could this be in any way legit?

I'm hoping that 13Th/70 orders is not a representative average across all 1400 orders, but it could be. It's hard to believe though - this is 186 Gh/order, meaning that people are on average ordering the equivalent of 4.5 SC singles (for about $6k). This would mean that BFL is up to $8 million in sales (including FPGA since those are traded in). This too is hard to believe.   

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[squall1066]

This is slightly lower to the early guesses of 5 single SC per order @ 200GHs, as I think more honest people are saying they can only affored 1-2 Jalapeno's, I realy think it's more like 2-5 to 3 single SC per order, But I think we will see orders reaching 4500-5000 before ship date, So it will all be the same in the end.

[Dargo]

This is slightly lower to the early guesses of 5 single SC per order @ 200GHs, as I think more honest people are saying they can only affored 1-2 Jalapeno's, I realy think it's more like 2-5 to 3 single SC per order, But I think we will see orders reaching 4500-5000 before ship date, So it will all be the same in the end.

If so, and assuming a more modest 100 Gh/order. 450 - 500 Th will have been sold before ship date to the tune of $14 million for BFL. Assuming 25% of that is FPGA trade-in, that's $10.5 million in new prepaid sales. I'm not denying it could happen, but it's hard to believe. 

[MrTeal]

I noticed by the way there about 70 orders tracked right now.
These 70 orders stand for 12 TH.
Though there 1400 orders placed by now.
What if you take these 70 orders as an average:

1400 / 70 =  20

Added computing power based on 1400 orders: 20 * 13TH =  260 TH

Difficulty increase factor: 260 TH / 12 TH = 21~

New diffuculty: 21 * 1751454 = 36780534

Could this be in any way legit?

I'm hoping that 13Th/70 orders is not a representative average across all 1400 orders, but it could be. It's hard to believe though - this is 186 Gh/order, meaning that people are on average ordering the equivalent of 4.5 SC singles (for about $6k). This would mean that BFL is up to $8 million in sales (including FPGA since those are traded in). This too is hard to believe.   

There is likely many less orders than you would expect from the order numbers. You get assigned an order number when you submit the order, regardless of whether it gets paid for. I know I made one to test that I never sent the BTC for, and it wouldn't surprise me if many people placed orders and then either didn't pay, or waned to change quantities and made a new order.

[squall1066]

Good points, I realy dont think it's a "how high is the network going" concern, it's more of a "how quickly will it raise" concern, As, Lets not forget lot's of people want to be on the first shipment, As thats the most profitable time, The slower it goes up, The longer time between block difficulties = more profitable mining.

I also see people selling their early order point, Given a choice of getting a premium for an item, or run it for undetermind rewards, I personally would go for the later.

[bitboyben]

Has any one mentioned that GPU mining will probably become obsolete and therefore an eventually reduction in the total hashing power as GPU mines are re-purposed?

[OmegaNemesis28]

Has any one mentioned that GPU mining will probably become obsolete and therefore an eventually reduction in the total hashing power as GPU mines are re-purposed?

yes however, that wont instantly happen. If the ASIC devices come out full force, there will be a rather long~ transitioning period. Small miners will realize that they need to buy up ASIC devices, but will continue to mine in the mean time anyway until they can trade off their old hardware. Large miners with GPU farms producing Gh/s with their hardware won't be leaving anywhere near as fast.

[arklan]

Has any one mentioned that GPU mining will probably become obsolete and therefore an eventually reduction in the total hashing power as GPU mines are re-purposed?

frequently. i've seen estimations of the difficulty rise from asic tasking this into account. i belive it was in my thread, "difficulty post asic?" where there was some very detailed math done. should be just a bit down below in this section.

[Ferroh]

Given a choice of getting a premium for an item, or run it for undetermind rewards, I personally would go for the later.

I'm not sure if you know which is the "former" and which is the "latter"

[johnyj]

During Jan 2010 to Jul 2011, GPU became more and more popular to mining, their efficiency is 40x higher than CPU, and the availability is not a problem, and the BTC gained popularity, even with such magnitudes efficiency and popularity increase, it still only generate 10x difficulty increase in a 6 months time frame. I think ASIC will not do better than that

[bitboyben]

Keeping it simple as I can.
IMHO

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

Approx 2500 orders there will be more orders as time goes on of course but then every order number doesn't = an actual unit.

I just assumed the SC single per order = 40Ghash

So I'm gonna give it a range

1250-3000 orders

50 Thash -> 120Thash  4-10X difficulty

Personally I think most GPUs will become unprofitable at the lower end of that threshold and I'm not sure how many FPGAs are out there so I'd say -80% of the current hash rate based on GPUs will dissolve. So +/- on that by 20%

As for Shipping times: BFL gave themselves till OCT +2 months and according to our records they are about two weeks slower than they say 4-6 weeks = 6-8 weeks.

I'd say the very first shipments for the first month of orders will start shipping last week of Sept until as late as the start of the new year. (Oct + 2 months plus "awe screw it it's only two more weeks late" factor)
There's roughly 2000 orders for the first month that technically need to be shipped by the end of that period. But If they get the first batch out the door close to their stated targets then would the guys further down the order list really ask for their money back at that point?

So I'm thinking
4-10X difficulty increase (+/- 20% Hash) between Oct 2012 and Feb 2013

But what happens over the following Six months should be interesting...
If you just tripled your return on your initial BFL product by being an early adopter wouldn't it make sense to buy MORE while the difficulty is low so that when things stabilize you'll have a bigger slice of the pie?

I think the graph of total hash power will look surprisingly similar to the above. Spike, small dip, flatten out with easy rise.

[svojoe]

I just ordered, and the order number was in the mid 5000's         

[CoinLab]

Has any one mentioned that GPU mining will probably become obsolete and therefore an eventually reduction in the total hashing power as GPU mines are re-purposed?

For any GPU miners concerned about the speculated increase in difficulty hurting their earnings (especially in combination with block reward halving), the new Coinlab pool for GPU miners that guarantees minimum earnings might be of interest to you.  Here is a link to the thread with a run through of the program https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99643.0