Next Halving in 2016 Mining consequences ?

[mwizard]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

Bitcoin price will definitely increase. Currently around 3-4K is dumped daily by miners.
Once the number goes down, dump will decrease, hence price will be expected to increase.

I would expect any bitcoin price increase due to the halving to be small, and to occur before the halving based on people expecting the increase.

There are about 3,600 bitcoins mined and possible sold each day. I am not convinced a fall from 3,600 to 1,800 bitcoins will be significant in terms of the total number of bitcoins transacted each day.  Currently it would represent less than 10% of all daily bitcoin transactions.  

By 2016 the volume of bitcoins moved each day will be higher than it is today and sales of freshly mined coins may be a smaller part of all transactions.  

In summary I am not certain that a fall in 2016 from selling 3,600 to 1,800 mined bitcoins per day is going to make much of a long term difference to the bitcoin price.  By 2016 bitcoin could be transacting a million bitcoins per day.

The fundamental question is - what actually sets the value/price of bitcoins?

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[cheekychap]

Price increase would almost certainly be a result of it. But that factor can't be accounted for now, as its still almost 2 years to go .
And we don't know what the price at that particular time be.

[Raize]

2) Difficulty will fall as uneconomic miners, and mining farms, are turned off.  In theory difficulty will fall to half the value before the halving.

I used to think this way as well, in fact, I think a lot of us did, but the evidence shows that the difficulty before, during, and after the halving stayed about the same (on a grander scale) for at least two months. Only after ASICs starting coming out in late February did the price and difficulty significantly change.

Check the chart if you don't believe it:

[picolo]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

No answer is good because the price will be pushed higher by the next halving but the market will anticipate it way before it happens, it even anticipates it now

[sumantso]

There will be no noticeable difference immediately after, as it will already have been priced in.

It will ease up the sell pressure so that might help the prices. But 2016 is a long time off and much bigger factors in play would have acted to change the price in an unpredictable manner by then.

[picolo]

There will be no noticeable difference immediately after, as it will already have been priced in.

It will ease up the sell pressure so that might help the prices. But 2016 is a long time off and much bigger factors in play would have acted to change the price in an unpredictable manner by then.

Good summary. The next halving in 2016 is definitely bullish for the price but the effect will be integrated in advance to the price

[LordSonjai]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

[Biodom]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

[LordSonjai]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

No,i get it the miners are the ones who make the bitcoin or I should use the term "generate".

Just like how the federal reserve prints their currency.
It was awesome in the beginning and everything but now people are just milking the system out of greed.
And it shows,look at bitcoin as it stays low 300s like a B list pornstar. This is terrible.

[MarketNeutral]

The halving will have, approximately, the following 3 effects:

1. The Bitcoin price will go up by 26%
2. The difficulty will go down by 20%
3. The revenue per hash will go down by 20% (something which miners need to consider in the decisions they are doing now).

Of course, all 3 can also be affected by factors unrelated to the halving.

Very, very difficult to predict, but this is a very reasonable guess.

[CoinFriend]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

i believe that point 2 would happen.
after the reward halving some more people need to buy bitcoin, that increases the demand. (assuming that they need bitcoin!)
because it would be less profitable for the most to run a miner efficient.

[picolo]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

i believe that point 2 would happen.
after the reward halving some more people need to buy bitcoin, that increases the demand. (assuming that they need bitcoin!)
because it would be less profitable for the most to run a miner efficient.

Miners will have half less bitcoins to sell on the markets but the same maintenance costs which is bullish for the price.

[Amph]

The halving will have, approximately, the following 3 effects:

1. The Bitcoin price will go up by 26%
2. The difficulty will go down by 20%
3. The revenue per hash will go down by 20% (something which miners need to consider in the decisions they are doing now).

Of course, all 3 can also be affected by factors unrelated to the halving.

Very, very difficult to predict, but this is a very reasonable guess.

those seems random number to be honest

personally i think there will be a pump long before the havling then a price correction, aka dump, but we will get a better value compared to the current one

[calci]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

i believe that point 2 would happen.
after the reward halving some more people need to buy bitcoin, that increases the demand. (assuming that they need bitcoin!)
because it would be less profitable for the most to run a miner efficient.

Miners will have half less bitcoins to sell on the markets but the same maintenance costs which is bullish for the price.

How is it bullish? Wouldn't it be rather good, as the price would go up, as less sellers would be there?

[pawel7777]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

i believe that point 2 would happen.
after the reward halving some more people need to buy bitcoin, that increases the demand. (assuming that they need bitcoin!)
because it would be less profitable for the most to run a miner efficient.

Miners will have half less bitcoins to sell on the markets but the same maintenance costs which is bullish for the price.

How is it bullish? Wouldn't it be rather good, as the price would go up, as less sellers would be there?

That's exactly what he meant by "bullish".

Bear market Vs Bull market:

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/129.asp

[picolo]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

i believe that point 2 would happen.
after the reward halving some more people need to buy bitcoin, that increases the demand. (assuming that they need bitcoin!)
because it would be less profitable for the most to run a miner efficient.

Miners will have half less bitcoins to sell on the markets but the same maintenance costs which is bullish for the price.

How is it bullish? Wouldn't it be rather good, as the price would go up, as less sellers would be there?

That's exactly what he meant by "bullish".

Bear market Vs Bull market:

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/129.asp

Yes it is what I meant, bullish means the price will go up

[Biodom]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

No,i get it the miners are the ones who make the bitcoin or I should use the term "generate".

Just like how the federal reserve prints their currency.
It was awesome in the beginning and everything but now people are just milking the system out of greed.
And it shows,look at bitcoin as it stays low 300s like a B list pornstar. This is terrible.

I don't think that you understand how bitcoin works in general. Bitcoin emission is a mathematical algorithm; it does not matter if there are 10 or 10000 or 1000000 miners (greed or no greed). The same amount of bitcoin is issued regardless (at the current block size=25 BTC right now) every ten minutes no matter what as long as there is a functional network.

[picolo]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

No,i get it the miners are the ones who make the bitcoin or I should use the term "generate".

Just like how the federal reserve prints their currency.
It was awesome in the beginning and everything but now people are just milking the system out of greed.
And it shows,look at bitcoin as it stays low 300s like a B list pornstar. This is terrible.

I don't think that you understand how bitcoin works in general. Bitcoin emission is a mathematical algorithm; it does not matter if there are 10 or 10000 or 1000000 miners (greed or no greed). The same amount of bitcoin is issued regardless (at the current block size=25 BTC right now) every ten minutes no matter what as long as there is a functional network.

Yes the same amount of bitcoins is created : 3600BTC/day right now wether you have 1 miner or billions of miners. If the price is low and there are many miners, the maintenance costs are higher in BTC terms.

[cheekychap]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

No,i get it the miners are the ones who make the bitcoin or I should use the term "generate".

Just like how the federal reserve prints their currency.
It was awesome in the beginning and everything but now people are just milking the system out of greed.
And it shows,look at bitcoin as it stays low 300s like a B list pornstar. This is terrible.

I don't think that you understand how bitcoin works in general. Bitcoin emission is a mathematical algorithm; it does not matter if there are 10 or 10000 or 1000000 miners (greed or no greed). The same amount of bitcoin is issued regardless (at the current block size=25 BTC right now) every ten minutes no matter what as long as there is a functional network.

Yes the same amount of bitcoins is created : 3600BTC/day right now wether you have 1 miner or billions of miners. If the price is low and there are many miners, the maintenance costs are higher in BTC terms.

Any idea on hpow much do the miners bear for the cost of mining 1 bitcoin?

and approximately how much profit they make on an average?

[picolo]

i just want to say that all the miners are ruining bitcoin just like how the federal reserve ruined the dollar.

I don't think that you understand what miners are doing-they are basically transaction validators.
Without mining there is NO BITCOIN.

No,i get it the miners are the ones who make the bitcoin or I should use the term "generate".

Just like how the federal reserve prints their currency.
It was awesome in the beginning and everything but now people are just milking the system out of greed.
And it shows,look at bitcoin as it stays low 300s like a B list pornstar. This is terrible.

I don't think that you understand how bitcoin works in general. Bitcoin emission is a mathematical algorithm; it does not matter if there are 10 or 10000 or 1000000 miners (greed or no greed). The same amount of bitcoin is issued regardless (at the current block size=25 BTC right now) every ten minutes no matter what as long as there is a functional network.

Yes the same amount of bitcoins is created : 3600BTC/day right now wether you have 1 miner or billions of miners. If the price is low and there are many miners, the maintenance costs are higher in BTC terms.

Any idea on hpow much do the miners bear for the cost of mining 1 bitcoin?

and approximately how much profit they make on an average?

It is hard to tell you how much profit you can get but you will have some answers here at current difficulty : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

100GHS earns 0.00008922/week 0.0003824/month - maintenance costs