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Author Topic: Worth it to get bank loan to mine?  (Read 1895 times)
lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 06:18:33 AM
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What do you think?
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AmazonStuff
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June 30, 2012, 06:23:34 AM
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If you want to buy ASIC equipment answer is maybe, for other equipment answer is no.
lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 06:24:17 AM
 #3

Definitely Asics
Spade
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June 30, 2012, 07:15:45 AM
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I think it comes down to how cheap you can get electricity for.
lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 07:21:09 AM
 #5

Do some math
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June 30, 2012, 07:26:28 AM
 #6

What do you think?

Ruh roh Rorge!

Mining is a form of speculation.  You are speculating on the future exchange rate level and the future difficulty level.  GPU mining is only a slightly less risky form of speculating on bitcoin that by bitcoin bitcoins outright but because you can always sell your GPU hardware for game playing and other non-mining purposes, you won't lose everything.

But to take out a bank loan to buy specialized bitcoin mining hardware, ... that's going to be hard to justify.

If you have savings or sufficient discretionary income to cover the loan repayment should there be difficulties, and just want to take advantage of the low interest rates, then that's possibly one of the few instances where doing so makes sense.

But look back to October of last year:
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

There were literally tears and disgust from miners who had invested in GPUs and rigs -- they were not only losing money on each hash (as the cost of electricity was greater than the revenue obtained from mining), they hadn't sold their bitcoins that were mined when the value was much higher -- amplifying their losses.

There's nothing saying we won't be back at $4 or less again.  Maybe FinCEN starts taking action, or the banks kick out all the exchanges?   Or simply, the block reward drop in December is particularly brutal on miners?  

We dont know.  But using other people's money to gamble is something that usually doesn't end well.  (well, unless you are a bankster and have the Bernank in your pocket then you actually get a huge bonus for doing that).

lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 07:43:01 AM
 #7

Been watching the prices the whole year and it's been stable at $5-6, don't see much of a risk there. The difficulty rating will definitely be going up, but I will have close to 1 terahash or more if I take out a loan so I'm no small fry.
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June 30, 2012, 07:53:22 AM
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Been watching the prices the whole year and it's been stable at $5-6, don't see much of a risk there. The difficulty rating will definitely be going up, but I will have close to 1 terahash or more if I take out a loan so I'm no small fry.

You do not get it. IF BFL deliver on their promises, then with 1 terahash you WILL be a small fry.

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lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 09:43:55 AM
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What are you blubbering about with this "IF" BFL delivers? When have they never delivered?

ALSO... if you had 1 terahash the entire 2012 year, then you would have made over 1.6 million according to most bitcoin calculators out there.
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June 30, 2012, 09:48:13 AM
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You do not get it. IF BFL deliver on their promises, then with 1 terahash you WILL be a small fry.


This. Everyone else has the same idea you do, and the pre-orders for those devices are an insane number. You will NOT be the only guy farming at 1 terahash once these devices are released to the public. This makes the action speculation, which is always dicey when "gambling with someone else's money".

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lanternblue
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June 30, 2012, 09:53:40 AM
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You do not get it. IF BFL deliver on their promises, then with 1 terahash you WILL be a small fry.


This. Everyone else has the same idea you do, and the pre-orders for those devices are an insane number. You will NOT be the only guy farming at 1 terahash once these devices are released to the public. This makes the action speculation, which is always dicey when "gambling with someone else's money".

Thank you kindly, that's what I was thinking as well. The difficulty rating and total network hashrate will go up.
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July 01, 2012, 09:39:37 AM
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Thank you kindly, that's what I was thinking as well. The difficulty rating and total network hashrate will go up.
Yup, although most likely not everyone currently mining with a GPU will bother upgrading to ASIC, so when ASICs are there the mined BTC will get spread over fewer people (so much for the mass adoption...). I'd say buy what you can afford, but borrowing money for this sounds a bit risky.

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July 02, 2012, 04:52:59 AM
 #13

I personally think GPU mining is going to go the way of the CPU mining in the next couple months.  I am surprised it has not happened yet since the talk of the FPGA/ASICs started last year. 

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July 02, 2012, 05:11:23 AM
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I personally think GPU mining is going to go the way of the CPU mining in the next couple months.  I am surprised it has not happened yet since the talk of the FPGA/ASICs started last year. 
The jump between GPU and FGPA/ASIC isn't the same as between CPU and GPU: "everyone" has some GPU, not everyone has an FGPA/ASIC. GPU can be bought at your usual local retailer, FGPA/ASIC have to be ordered from the other side of the world. You can resell a GPU and do other things than mining on it, you can't really with FGPA/ASIC. So, not surprising that the transition isn't as brutal: the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...

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madberry
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July 02, 2012, 09:37:42 AM
 #15

the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...

With the jalapeño at $149 my grandma will be buying them next LOL

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July 02, 2012, 09:59:27 AM
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the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...

With the jalapeño at $149 my grandma will be buying them next LOL

By the time the supposed jalapeño reaches the market I am sure your grandma would be long gone. Tongue

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July 02, 2012, 11:07:20 AM
 #17

Hell of a gamble if you ask me. There are safer investments you could make.

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July 02, 2012, 11:14:52 AM
 #18

I personally think GPU mining is going to go the way of the CPU mining in the next couple months.  I am surprised it has not happened yet since the talk of the FPGA/ASICs started last year. 
The jump between GPU and FGPA/ASIC isn't the same as between CPU and GPU: "everyone" has some GPU, not everyone has an FGPA/ASIC. GPU can be bought at your usual local retailer, FGPA/ASIC have to be ordered from the other side of the world. You can resell a GPU and do other things than mining on it, you can't really with FGPA/ASIC. So, not surprising that the transition isn't as brutal: the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...

The funny thing is Ive always wanted a usb coffee warmer.

localhost
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July 02, 2012, 11:55:18 AM
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the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...
With the jalapeño at $149 my grandma will be buying them next LOL
I'm not saying it's expensive nor complicated, I'm just saying it's a pure investment in BTC: you can't do anything else with it. No playing, no reselling, just mining. So I'm pretty sure there won't be as many people with ASICs as there have been with GPUs (proportionally to the global reach & value of Bitcoin, of course).

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xioustic
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July 02, 2012, 04:19:51 PM
 #20

the average Joe doesn't get an ASIC...
With the jalapeño at $149 my grandma will be buying them next LOL
I'm not saying it's expensive nor complicated, I'm just saying it's a pure investment in BTC: you can't do anything else with it. No playing, no reselling, just mining. So I'm pretty sure there won't be as many people with ASICs as there have been with GPUs (proportionally to the global reach & value of Bitcoin, of course).
This is also a key factor. With my GPU farm, if BitCoin crashes or becomes worthless for whatever reason, I can recoup my cost still for the value of the GPUs. The same cannot be said about BitCoin-optimized specific ASIC/FPGAs, which would likely become worthless as they have no intrinsic value of their own.

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