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sebnow
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July 27, 2012, 08:54:17 AM
 #61

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.
Yeah, there's no advantage to this over just depositing 1BTC with pirate and getting 7% WPR. If Pirate defaults you lose the 1 BTC either way, except you can invest the other 1 BTC in something else.

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July 29, 2012, 12:06:32 AM
 #62

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

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July 29, 2012, 12:29:12 AM
 #63


I have done a bit of work on this. It turns out that a share of YARR for any less than 1.725 BTC is the best deal anywhere, short of investing thousands of coins directly with pirate and putting thousands more in cold storage. The thread also looks at PPT.X bonds because they are also partially insured.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96092

The flip-side is that the current prices are too high; you can get the same risk and a better return by investing sans-insurance.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
macboy80
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July 29, 2012, 01:25:45 AM
 #64

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

I tend to agree with you. It seems that, until this sale has been completed and we know and trust the buyer, the actual value of the bond can be no more than the buyback amount of 1.3 BTC.

Disclaimer: I currently hold YARR
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July 29, 2012, 01:36:05 AM
 #65

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

I tend to agree with you. It seems that, until this sale has been completed and we know and trust the buyer, the actual value of the bond can be no more than the buyback amount of 1.3 BTC.

Disclaimer: I currently hold YARR
usagi has stated that YARR holds 3700 BTC in assets. Therefore, it's unreasonable to think that he would force the 1.3 BTC buyback: that would mean a loss of 1110 BTC. At least in this case, the invisible hand -- everyone doing what's best for them -- means the best for everyone.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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July 29, 2012, 02:15:50 AM
 #66

usagi has stated that YARR holds 3700 BTC in assets. Therefore, it's unreasonable to think that he would force the 1.3 BTC buyback: that would mean a loss of 1110 BTC. At least in this case, the invisible hand -- everyone doing what's best for them -- means the best for everyone.


I think we misunderstand each other. I was trying to say that a prospective buyer would have the option to exercise the buyback @ 1.3 BTC, not usagi. I also do not understand your math. I see that there were 2000 shares of YARR that received a dividend today. To buy back, it would be 1.3 * 2000 = 2600 BTC leaving 1100 BTC for profit.
waltmarkers
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July 29, 2012, 02:41:55 AM
 #67



In 3 days there will be 1,000 new backing for YARR and I will sell up to 1500 new shares around 1.40-1.50. This has been announced for about a week now. I really don't know why people like you and Nimda keep spreading FUD about 1.90, volume at that level is what, 100, compared to maybe 3,000 under 1.40.

Actually - you said people were buying it for 1.9. How is that FUD? 
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July 29, 2012, 02:48:43 AM
 #68

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.

this is precisely how I've evaluated YARR. It is in fact, a partially insured bond. The typical trading price makes the insurance considerably less valuable, and(or) the premium exceptionally high.

the current offer to sell all of YARR to the highest bidder
A. calls into question the true value of the insurance provided
B. the solidity of any investment in YARR until such time as the asset is transferred to the eventual purchaser.

I would personally be interested in YARR at 1.1-1.2.

Hopefully your sale of the YARR business will go quickly.

Actually, it's not "fully" insured (it being your investment)
Say you buy one for 2 BTC. If pirate defaults, you only get 1 BTC back. That's 50% insurance on 3% WPR. Still not a good idea if you think pirate will default in less than 17 weeks.
Yeah, there's no advantage to this over just depositing 1BTC with pirate and getting 7% WPR. If Pirate defaults you lose the 1 BTC either way, except you can invest the other 1 BTC in something else.

This (along with Nimda, Obsi, and Psy's statements among others) are great examples of why if you don't know how to manage your money, for god's sake give it to a competent money manager.

If you did what you said and invested 1 bitcoin in pirate and 0.9 in say mining, your total interest rate would be about 4.3% The problem is that YARR pays a comparable interest rate at just 1.4 bitcoins. So investing in YARR at or around the average sale price is a better investment than what you have proposed.

In 3 days there will be 1,000 new backing for YARR and I will sell up to 1500 new shares around 1.40-1.50. This has been announced for about a week now. I really don't know why people like you and Nimda keep spreading FUD about 1.90, volume at that level is what, 100, compared to maybe 3,000 under 1.40.
Whoa whoa! Now you're accusing me of FUD? FUD != Math. Let's look at that bold part. It is correct. However, at the time of my calculations, the market price of YARR was 1.9 Bitcoins. Therefore, an assessment based on 1.4 Bitcoins was absolutely useless. You couldn't get YARR for 1.4 Bitcoins.

Now for the blue part (color mine). I was "spreading FUD" about 1.9 because that was the price. You couldn't get a share of YARR for less than 1.9 Bitcoins.


(Subject to investor's evaluation of pirate's default risk -- as risk of him defaulting in the next month approaches ~90%, staying totally away from him becomes the only option.)


In 3 days there will be 1,000 new backing for YARR and I will sell up to 1500 new shares around 1.40-1.50. This has been announced for about a week now. I really don't know why people like you and Nimda keep spreading FUD about 1.90, volume at that level is what, 100, compared to maybe 3,000 under 1.40.

Actually - you said people were buying it for 1.9. How is that FUD? 
^Pretty much this. At this point, you are spreading lies about me. The fact is that people did pay up to 1.89 BTC for YARR. Another mathematical fact is that they weren't getting the best possible return on their risk. Now that the price is sub 1.7, YARR is again viable. Flaming me for using the market price is useless and outright libel.
usagi has stated that YARR holds 3700 BTC in assets. Therefore, it's unreasonable to think that he would force the 1.3 BTC buyback: that would mean a loss of 1110 BTC. At least in this case, the invisible hand -- everyone doing what's best for them -- means the best for everyone.


I think we misunderstand each other. I was trying to say that a prospective buyer would have the option to exercise the buyback @ 1.3 BTC, not usagi. I also do not understand your math. I see that there were 2000 shares of YARR that received a dividend today. To buy back, it would be 1.3 * 2000 = 2600 BTC leaving 1100 BTC for profit.
This is true. However, the prospective buyer would pay at least 5000 BTC, so the profit would be negative.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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August 14, 2012, 11:01:27 PM
 #69

*(there has been no official announcement that I can find but rumor has it at 5%.)

Hmm? There has been an official announcement, unless you don't consider the BS&T thread official...

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August 14, 2012, 11:17:49 PM
 #70

*(there has been no official announcement that I can find but rumor has it at 5%.)

Hmm? There has been an official announcement, unless you don't consider the BS&T thread official...

        5,000+ BTC 3%
        15,000+ BTC 4%
        25,000+ BTC 5%
 is that the new rates ?

Serge
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August 14, 2012, 11:36:36 PM
 #71

why are you lowering now if there's whole week ahead with unchanged rates?
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August 14, 2012, 11:38:11 PM
 #72

why are you lowering now if there's whole week ahead with unchanged rates?

There isn't.

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August 15, 2012, 12:16:26 AM
 #73

why are you lowering now if there's whole week ahead with unchanged rates?

There isn't.

New rates are effective 8/20...

I'm not a Coinbase fan -- I placed a buy order, they took the funds out of my account, then a week later the price went up and they canceled the buy and closed my account.  You've been warned.  Use a different exchange.
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August 15, 2012, 12:20:41 AM
 #74

why are you lowering now if there's whole week ahead with unchanged rates?

There isn't.

New rates are effective 8/20...

I guess thats for the previous weeks deposits.

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August 15, 2012, 01:47:31 AM
 #75

The question now is if people run to insured pirate pass throughs to save them from full pirate default, or not. If not, I expect that the fair value is now ~1.42 instead of 1.55. This is of course when Usagi fixes the rate.

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August 15, 2012, 03:06:33 AM
 #76

The question now is if people run to insured pirate pass throughs to save them from full pirate default, or not. If not, I expect that the fair value is now ~1.42 instead of 1.55. This is of course when Usagi fixes the rate.

Not sure why you would think the fair value would decrease. I actually think fair value will keep rising resulting in lower yields as interest rates in the Bitcoin economy in general keep declining as demand for cash declines. And interest rates will rise, later, when confidence in Pirate declines.

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August 15, 2012, 05:35:34 AM
 #77

I see, thanks for explanation.
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August 17, 2012, 07:05:55 PM
 #78

Pirate has closed his BS&T. What will happen now with owners of YARR shares? Will you buy back all shares for 1 BTC each?
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August 17, 2012, 07:08:41 PM
 #79

Pirate has closed his BS&T. What will happen now with owners of YARR shares? Will you buy back all shares for 1 BTC each?
Where is this announcement?
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August 17, 2012, 07:10:08 PM
 #80

Pirate has closed his BS&T. What will happen now with owners of YARR shares? Will you buy back all shares for 1 BTC each?
Where is this announcement?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0

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