Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2016, 10:06:19 PM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: BS&T -- Are you staying or leaving?
I'm using a passthrough(s) and will continue to do so
I will make or already have an account which I will keep
I will have a Trust account
I am currently using a passthrough and will be withdrawing all funds from it
I currently have an account and will be withdrawing all funds from it
I am currently using a passthrough and will be withdrawing some funds from it
I currently have an account and will be withdrawing some funds from it
What kind of idiot would trust their money with that guy?
Idk show me what others said.

Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: BS&T -- Are you staying or leaving?  (Read 22731 times)
imsaguy
General failure and former
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 574

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 01:30:43 AM
 #281

As for the difference between gambling and investing, what is your subtle difference between these? 

In gambling the outcomes are random or near it. In investment you can see a company's earnings (to a point, although it's also possible to learn to recognize fraud), you can call them and ask them what they're doing to improve their business, you can see what tangible saleable assets they have (which may not relate to their main business), you can see how often they've paid dividends (if any) and if they've raised them or not. Etc etc.

Investing properly is like appraising a farm for sale. You already know more or less what productivity to expect out of the land, which you can verify by checking various soil features (assuming you know about farming) and determine whether the price you're being offered is low, fair, or too much. In other words, you get a big advantage by having specialist knowledge into the business you're investing in, whereas in gambling the only advantage you might glean is purely mathematical.

Investing is often gambling.  So often there are confounding variables that give an incomplete picture, even when using all due diligence in the world.  Invest in a farm and then two years down the road, subsidies change or whatever. 

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
1481061979
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061979

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061979
Reply with quote  #2

1481061979
Report to moderator
1481061979
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061979

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061979
Reply with quote  #2

1481061979
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481061979
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061979

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061979
Reply with quote  #2

1481061979
Report to moderator
1481061979
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061979

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061979
Reply with quote  #2

1481061979
Report to moderator
1481061979
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481061979

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481061979
Reply with quote  #2

1481061979
Report to moderator
PatrickHarnett
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
July 07, 2012, 01:47:07 AM
 #282

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.

FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 02:51:20 AM
 #283

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.



Blackjack is not random?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 04:25:06 AM
 #284

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.



Blackjack is not random?

Not if you do it the right um  wrong way: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 04:46:00 AM
 #285

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.



Blackjack is not random?

Not if you do it the right um  wrong way: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

Even if you get an edge the outcome of each hand is random. And even if you are talking about the long run to the point where you are sure to win your exact result will vary widely.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
sadpandatech
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504



View Profile
July 07, 2012, 04:48:12 AM
 #286

I'm gonna risk patrick slapping me with one of those brain hurting responses again and say what I think he was implying by 'not random'.

I believe he was refering to the payouts for blackjak, not the hands.

edit; which if you could apply the formula of placing a bet n^ your previous bet for each losing hand you would eventually win. Catch is the casinos are too smart for that and limit the maximum bet. ;p

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 04:52:27 AM
 #287

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.



Blackjack is not random?

Not if you do it the right um  wrong way: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

Even if you get an edge the outcome of each hand is random. And even if you are talking about the long run to the point where you are sure to win your exact result will vary widely.

The outcome of each hand is governed by a particular probability. If you can skew that then over a number of hands, you can come out ahead. But it's not a random probability, in any case.

/OT

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
PatrickHarnett
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
July 07, 2012, 05:04:58 AM
 #288

I'm gonna risk patrick slapping me with one of those brain hurting responses again and say what I think he was implying by 'not random'.

I believe he was refering to the payouts for blackjak, not the hands.

edit; which if you could apply the formula of placing a bet n^ your previous bet for each losing hand you would eventually win. Catch is the casinos are too smart for that and limit the maximum bet. ;p

Nah, apparently I've annoyed Vladimir quite effectively https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91643.msg1014104#msg1014104

And discussing complex number theory and statistics is less interesting than my beer and the steak I'm going to be having soon.

Anyway, my personal expectation is that BS&T might run another six months, so I'm set until Christmas, so I'm in the staying camp.  (I also know who Mr P is, and have various other bits of information that provide me confidence that my funds are as safe with him as many other places.  I am not "all in", and happy to be receiving less than the top tier of interest from 1 August because others are keen to run low margin pass-throughs.)
hgmichna
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 598



View Profile
July 07, 2012, 08:28:44 AM
 #289

Kelly Criterion for dummies  Smiley

For those who don't feel like digging through the Kelly formula, here is a strongly simplified explanation. It boils down to the old saying: "Never put all your eggs in one basket."

The idea behind it is that, if you make investments that (usually) involve some risk, if you always bet all your money, you run a high risk to eventually lose it all.

When I apply the Kelly Criterion to typical bitcoin investments and speculation, the result is often that I should invest or bet no more than 10% to 20% of my entire wealth.

Of course this applies to your entire wealth, not only bitcoins. You have to include your assets and income. For example, if you have a monthly income of $5,000 and can save $1,000 of these each month, then it may not matter all that much if you put all your 1,000 bitcoins into one risky investment. If you lose them, you buy another 1,000 bitcoins half a year later.

If, on the other hand, you have saved 20,000 BTC to bring your pension up to par, you should not put all of these into any risky investment. You should limit your exposure to each single risk to, say, 2,000 BTC, so the likelihood of losing your entire stash remains sufficiently small.

That's the essence of the Kelly Criterion.
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 08:34:20 AM
 #290

Investing returns are random within a range based on what you know of the underlying asset/business/investment.  Sounds like gambling.

Blackjack (as an example) is not random, but again returns are within a range based on the rules of the game.

Both involve some skill, as opposed to a simple game of chance.  Even BS&T allows some skill to be applied, such as due diligence on different aspects of the business.



Blackjack is not random?

Not if you do it the right um  wrong way: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

Even if you get an edge the outcome of each hand is random. And even if you are talking about the long run to the point where you are sure to win your exact result will vary widely.

The outcome of each hand is governed by a particular probability. If you can skew that then over a number of hands, you can come out ahead. But it's not a random probability, in any case.

/OT

You play a bunch of hands, you come out ahead, how much? You dunno, it's random.

/OT

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
July 07, 2012, 08:36:41 AM
 #291

Read the link I posted. Plus, I'm saying the probabilities involved are not random. If the game was truly random you'd need a set of an infinite number of cards.

/OT /OT

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
Clipse
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504


View Profile
July 07, 2012, 03:16:57 PM
 #292

Read the link I posted. Plus, I'm saying the probabilities involved are not random.  If the game was truly random you'd need a set of an infinite number of cards.

/OT /OT

Proper card counting, which doesnt really exist anymore in casinos, is not random and I used to do it full time along with partners at a bunch of casinos all over the country between 1999-2003, it was by far the most predictable way of earning income by gambling. Sure the next card is purely based on probability but with proper card counting you can narrow the stats down to a huge favourite over the house and when you have the "house edge" its a guaranteed win.

In 2004 the casinos got up to gear and removed every hand shuffling 6+ deck with atleast 60% penetration which turned cardcounting into a losing game.

Long story short, its very predictable. Smiley

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

We pay miners at 130% PPS | Signup here : Bonus PPS Pool (Please read OP to understand the current process)
Rygon
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 519


View Profile
July 07, 2012, 09:33:50 PM
 #293

Read the link I posted. Plus, I'm saying the probabilities involved are not random.  If the game was truly random you'd need a set of an infinite number of cards.

/OT /OT

Proper card counting, which doesnt really exist anymore in casinos, is not random and I used to do it full time along with partners at a bunch of casinos all over the country between 1999-2003, it was by far the most predictable way of earning income by gambling. Sure the next card is purely based on probability but with proper card counting you can narrow the stats down to a huge favourite over the house and when you have the "house edge" its a guaranteed win.

In 2004 the casinos got up to gear and removed every hand shuffling 6+ deck with atleast 60% penetration which turned cardcounting into a losing game.

Long story short, its very predictable. Smiley

Did you know those guys from MIT that they made a movie about? If so, cool!
mrb
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1120


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:08:57 AM
 #294

Please, Todd T******, I implore you to stop your Ponzi scheme. You will make tons of people very angry when you default, putting yourself and your family under stress and danger. You will also devastate people who were irresponsible enough to invest their life savings into it. You will create another round of bad publicity for Bitcoin. I understand financial success, greed, etc makes it hard to stop, but you have to stop. Now.

Who's Todd T******?

You are Todd T****** from McKinney, Texas.

LOL, no I'm pretty sure people know exactly who I am.  Your google must be borked.

Correct, Trendon S******. If many know your identity, it is one more reason to stop your Ponzi scheme now...
imsaguy
General failure and former
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 574

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:13:32 AM
 #295

Correct, Trendon S******. If many know your identity, it is one more reason to stop your Ponzi scheme now...

or just keep doing what he's doing since it isn't a ponzi?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
imsaguy
General failure and former
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 574

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:23:51 AM
 #296

Please, Todd T******, I implore you to stop your Ponzi scheme. You will make tons of people very angry when you default, putting yourself and your family under stress and danger. You will also devastate people who were irresponsible enough to invest their life savings into it. You will create another round of bad publicity for Bitcoin. I understand financial success, greed, etc makes it hard to stop, but you have to stop. Now.

Who's Todd T******?

You are Todd T****** from McKinney, Texas.

LOL, no I'm pretty sure people know exactly who I am.  Your google must be borked.

Correct, Trendon S******. If many know your identity, it is one more reason to stop your Ponzi scheme now...

So, in recap:

 "I know who you are. You are x."
 "I am not x."
 "Correct, y. You are y."

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
imsaguy
General failure and former
VIP
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 574

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:29:57 AM
 #297


This is one place where good old Mr. Ockham actually becomes useful.

Is it more likely, given the fact that he has acknowledged that he is the person with that name, among other details of his life, that

a) He is running a complicated Ponzi conspiracy with "backers" to defraud scores of nerds who have plenty of time to dig up details of his life, and is prepared to flee the country or to defend himself and his family from attacks from both the legal system and crazy Internet nut jobs from whom he stole their life savings

or

b) He is running a legitimate (as much as BTC is in whatever jurisdiction) business and is not concerned about legal or violent repercussions toward himself or his family?

Answers will be judged.

Its funny you bring up a razor.  I was just having a friend tell me how he's got a hairy bung hole.  Perhaps he should meet Mr. Ockham?

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:32:46 AM
 #298

This is one place where good old Mr. Ockham actually becomes useful.

Brother Occam never practised what he preached. He was a theologian and he asserts that the simplest explanation is the more likely? Hah! I wonder how he fitted religion into that concept. Bloody monks. Never useful.

I think one of the alternate names on wikipedia is better: the law of parsimony.

 

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
organofcorti
Donator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1946


Poor impulse control.


View Profile WWW
July 09, 2012, 06:53:36 AM
 #299

This is one place where good old Mr. Ockham actually becomes useful.

Brother Occam never practised what he preached. He was a theologian and he asserts that the simplest explanation is the more likely? Hah! I wonder how he fitted religion into that concept. Bloody monks. Never useful.

I think one of the alternate names on wikipedia is better: the law of parsimony.

 

Monks did a lot of good work on the production of beer and wine.

Lol! Wink

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
BTCurious
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714


^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.


View Profile
July 09, 2012, 02:23:27 PM
 #300

This is one place where good old Mr. Ockham actually becomes useful.

Brother Occam never practised what he preached. He was a theologian and he asserts that the simplest explanation is the more likely? Hah! I wonder how he fitted religion into that concept. Bloody monks. Never useful.
"God did it."
Three words, very simple.

Of course, if you apply Occam's razor mathematically, things become a lot different…

Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [15] 16 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!