It's binary and always has been. It will either succeed and be worth x fold what it I'd now (x>10) Or it will die.
All we need is one country, one big company, or one killer app to make bitcoin, and the price will be through the roof.
My experiences of using bitcoin make me more sure that it will succeed, decentralised taxis are worth loads more than bitcoin, a decentralised currency, that just seems wrong. I think the problem is that people don't see the problems that fiat has, I think they might soon though.
You are right. Bitcoin will either be very successful (and the price will be significantly higher) or it will essentially fail and the long term price will be zero.
The question is what happens to the price in the mean time. It will be many years before either of these happen