Why Bitcoin is dropping and why you should be buying.

[QuestionAuthority]

Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.

Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.

My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)

After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.

But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.

Yeah of course, I enjoy debating such issues.

Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.  

It would take at least a few decades or a decade of worldwide pain and suffering that no one wants. You're right. That's why the system hasn't failed yet. No one wants it to. Bitcoin isn't the answer right now. At this point Bitcoin is just along for the ride.

[General_A]

My main problem with most arguments against is everything is rosy so thefore there is no problem. Everything is always fine until it isn't. Do I know the day this is all coming...no. But probably most people won't just like they didn't in all the great market collapses in history.

Its not rosy. Everyone knows that. The Warren Buffets of this world know this, the Barack Obama's know this, the bloody milkman knows this. In a standard market it could crash, but this is not a standard market. Its owned primarily by the very wealthy and the banks. They would have to all run from the market for it to crash and that is not happening anytime soon. They all quite like their money there with the 5-10% gains per year. The thing to watch is NOT the financial markets, but the income inequality. The only thing that will change this system will be wide spread discontent and a government getting scared by its citizens.  

[neurorit]

Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.

Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.

My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)

After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.

But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.

Yeah of course, I enjoy debating such issues.

Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.  

I certainly don't want a reset anytime soon. I actually hope you're right that it's decades away. I don't really have anything to lose at this point as far as wealth is concerned, but I feel you're right that it would be total chaos. I'd rather have done well for a few years and have become an expat in a developing country before SHTF if SHTF means madmax total chaos.

[General_A]

I certainly don't want a reset anytime soon. I actually hope you're right that it's decades away. I don't really have anything to lose at this point as far as wealth is concerned, but I feel you're right that it would be total chaos. I'd rather have done well for a few years and have become an expat in a developing country before SHTF if SHTF means madmax total chaos.

The market is not going to crash the way that Jim Willie or zerohedge predicts anytime soon. I will literally guarantee it. That's not to say were not going to have massive crashes, deflation, inflation and all those other lovely market forces coming into effect.

If you wait for the economic crash ship to sail you will waste your ENTIRE life. Your second plan is solid; do it.

[podyx]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?

No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid

[QuestionAuthority]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?

No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid

No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.

Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years. 

[podyx]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?

No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid

No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.

Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years. 

NP

btw, I'm not a expert. Because of the strength of the dollar, it could very well be maintained and controlled for longer then expected. But even then, with the pace we're going I just don't see how it will last for a much longer time.

[3eme]

There's a slam dunk argument for hyperinflation right here
http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/inflation-or-hyperinflation.html
This is a blogger by the name of FOFOA and he is well worth a read.

This house of cards is probably going to pop within the next 5 years, if that and physical gold is going to be the asset to own.

I consider Bitcoin a speculative play right now but if a hyperinflation hits, people will be looking for anywhere to get rid of their fast devaluing Dollars and its pretty easy to buy bitcoin so I can see there being a good chunk of demand and selling drying up in that scenario.

[QuestionAuthority]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect.
So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts?

No... not really...
Get a grip of reality kid

No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime.

Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years. 

NP

btw, I'm not a expert. Because of the strength of the dollar, it could very well be maintained and controlled for longer then expected. But even then, with the pace we're going I just don't see how it will last for a much longer time.

The system already has failed. The 2008-12 mortgage crisis is all the proof you need. The U.S. is currently attempting to jump start the economy by dumping oil reserves to drop the price of a barrel of oil which puts more disposable income in the hands of the people. These continuous bandages can be put on the system for a very long time to shore up the economy. The Great Depression was a massive global economic recession that ran from 1929 to 1941. That's 12 years of poverty and misery before a noticeable improvement. It led to massive bank failures, high unemployment, and dramatic drops in gross domestic product. It was so bad that we couldn't escape it without a major war which increased production creating jobs. I know I won't live long enough to see the end. I'm pretty sure my kids won't see it either but my grandkids are fucked. lol

Bitcoin can't fix this unless it's traded as currency for product without an exchange step or being pegged to a currency and is trusted for international barter. If that happens at all, I won't live long enough to see it. Without knowing your age, I believe you won't live that long either.

[Chef Ramsay]

The question is: what are the impacts of a crash of the global finance system on the Bitcoin? Do you think that people would escape their savings in the Bitcoin ("the digital gold")?

If a global crash does occur, I don't think people would like to put in their money into a more volatile digital currency, where they could lost more than 60% of their holdings .
Just Quoting my brother here .

I was talking to a friend about digital currencies today and he said I don't believe in digital currency is just made up out of thin air and said he only wants cold hard cash he can hold in his hands. Then he preceded to pay with his meal with a credit card....

That's pretty much the mindset of most people these days especially those that can't comprehend the usd not being the kingmaker. The US gov will do whatever is needed to kick the can down the road and do the money magician tactics necessary to keep things afloat. That said, the smart money will return w/ a vengeance at some point and things will take off in bitcoinland irrespective of the usd money.gov game. This will make the average person want to bite at it but the main thing that will make the average person actually want to use it is by getting discounts for purchases and I just wonder how far out this is from being a ubiquitous scenario. 

[ElectricMucus]

Wow, this place is full of morons.

[chaoman]

All I'm hearing from the forum is the imminent death of bitcoin due to the relatively small drop in price in dollar terms of Bitcoin. I see this as an early sign that a financial collapse is approaching and therefore the perfect time for wise investors to buy. I don't know if people are familiar with the work of Jim Willie of the Golden Jackass but I recommend him, he's fringy and controversial but he has always said that the sign the system is collapsing and the dollar is on its death bed will be a massive rise in the dollar not a drop.

This also is a sign of a deriveratives implosion too. I think we will go lower, very low in fact (in dollar terms) and then we will get a spike up that will shock even seasoned bitcoiners. The absolutely only reason I'm not buying Bitcoin is I have no available fiat. If you are holding dollars then anytime from now is a good time to buy if you hold a longer tem perspective.

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/01/harvey-organ-derivatives-meltdown-has-begun/

pure speculation  

This is the freaking speculation forum

[applesRyummy]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

You are most likely correct, however it is possible for the dollar to fail/collapse in your/our lifetimes.

Your analogy is assuming that the US empire will fall the same way the British empire fell, very slowly over a period of 100+ years. It is possible that the US empire would fall the same way the greek empire fell, (or the german empire of WW2) - very quickly and having a cascading effect

[QuestionAuthority]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

You are most likely correct, however it is possible for the dollar to fail/collapse in your/our lifetimes.

Your analogy is assuming that the US empire will fall the same way the British empire fell, very slowly over a period of 100+ years. It is possible that the US empire would fall the same way the greek empire fell, (or the german empire of WW2) - very quickly and having a cascading effect

I hope so. I'd kind of like to see it.

[mlferro]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

You are most likely correct, however it is possible for the dollar to fail/collapse in your/our lifetimes.

Your analogy is assuming that the US empire will fall the same way the British empire fell, very slowly over a period of 100+ years. It is possible that the US empire would fall the same way the greek empire fell, (or the german empire of WW2) - very quickly and having a cascading effect

I hope so. I'd kind of like to see it.

I hope this does not happen !!

[QuestionAuthority]

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

You are most likely correct, however it is possible for the dollar to fail/collapse in your/our lifetimes.

Your analogy is assuming that the US empire will fall the same way the British empire fell, very slowly over a period of 100+ years. It is possible that the US empire would fall the same way the greek empire fell, (or the german empire of WW2) - very quickly and having a cascading effect

I hope so. I'd kind of like to see it.

I hope this does not happen !!

Don't mind me. I've kind of always wanted to see how the world would handle a pandemic too. Although when it's happening I'm sure I would want it to stop.

[chesthing]

If you really believe the dollar is about to crash, buy ammo food and fuel, fuck crypto.

[ElectricMucus]

If you really believe the dollar is about to crash, buy ammo food and fuel, fuck crypto.

Yes, or better yet seek professional help, there are medications for that sort of thing.

[fran2k]

1100 to 270 cant be seen as "relatively small" by any standard

Not even one order of magnitude.

Keep Calm & Think Exponential.

[mmortal03]

The dying dollar (economic forecaster, Gary Shilling)

2. The World’s Largest Economy

The dominant currency is typically found in the world’s largest economy and the U.S. is head-and-shoulders above the rest. As Gary points out, in 2012 U.S. GDP was $15.7 trillion. The second closest, China, was nearly half the size at $8.2 trillion. If you think China is about to overtake the U.S. in terms of size, Gary says “China would have to grow 12% a year for 20 years to catch up…it’s now down at about 7.5% growth and as the Chinese economy shifts away from being driven by exports…away from infrastructure, away from heavy borrowing, and so on, their growth is going to grow even more slowly.”

In terms of nominal GDP this is true, but in terms of GDP (PPP), China is right there with the US.