Why I used to trust Patrick Harnett

[gene]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

[WifeOfStarfish]

You are the most detestable individual I have ever come across on the internet

Name calling is not a substitute for a reasoned response. One more time in case you missed it:

There is simply no way a rational businessman would take all this risk and pay such high rates unless he was making a significant profit. And the first thing a rational businessman would do when making a significant profit is pay off his absurdly-high interest debts. And if the risk is high and he nevertheless had the funds to cover losses, the most rational thing to do with those funds would be to loan them and thereby get rid of his high-interest debt. No rational person would have $50,000 in a bank account and still borrow the equivalent of $50,000 in BTC at exorbitant rates.

Is there something erroneous in that reasoning? You've done everything from getting offended to calling me names to making ad hominem arguments -- you've even tried to hurt my feeling and bully me into shutting up. But the one thing you've not done is shown that my argument is actually incorrect.

Is your feigned fragility hurting you?

[imsaguy]

There is simply no way a rational businessman would take all this risk and pay such high rates unless he was making a significant profit. And the first thing a rational businessman would do when making a significant profit is pay off his absurdly-high interest debts. And if the risk is high and he nevertheless had the funds to cover losses, the most rational thing to do with those funds would be to loan them and thereby get rid of his high-interest debt. No rational person would have $50,000 in a bank account and still borrow the equivalent of $50,000 in BTC at exorbitant rates.

Here's where you fail..

First, if a rational businessman is taking on a bunch of risk and paying high rates, he must not have much capital of his own or else he wouldn't enter into such an arrangement in the first place.

Second, if a rational businessman is taking a large risk and has to pay high rates, he probably has a high gross return, but when factoring in the high rates he is paying, the net is probably much smaller.

Third, which relates somewhat to the first, is that a rational businessman knows that things come up.  Unexpected things.  When those unexpected things come up, typically, they're costly, meaning they need capital quickly.  When borrowing, you can't force people to lend to you.  A rational business man knows having a reserve of profit in those instances helps to fill those immediate need situations.

TL;DR In short, there are times where it makes sense to keep cash on hand vs paying off outstanding debt.

EDIT:  I forgot to tie this back to PH, since that's who seems to be who everyone has a hardon for lately..  He's not accepting any more deposits and honoring all outstanding obligations.   I'd say that's the largest evidence of 'not ponzi'.  I've not seen any of his customers (borrowers or depositors) dissatisfied, so unless you want to call them idiots too, I'd say things are working just fine.

[finkleshnorts]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

Maybe so.

[imsaguy]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

Maybe so.

If he's being conditioned by the moderators here on the forums, then perhaps its time we spent some time pointing fingers at them for fostering such a terrible environment.

[gene]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

Maybe so.

Then I's sure you realize that your attitude (cultivated within this incubator of grifters) makes you an attractive mark.

[JoelKatz]

TL;DR In short, there are times where it makes sense to keep cash on hand vs paying off outstanding debt.

Sure, those would be the times when you aren't making a good profit. But if you're doing all this work and taking all this risk and not making a good profit, you're basically a fool.

[gene]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

Maybe so.

If he's being conditioned by the moderators here on the forums, then perhaps its time we spent some time pointing fingers at them for fostering such a terrible environment.

That's an excellent point.

[finkleshnorts]

Hmm... Recently I lent 40 BTC to a moderator here, who repayed ~12% interest after about a month. It was easy peasy.

What do you have to say about that? If I had more bitcoins, I could make more loans. It's pretty simple.

It sound like you are being conditioned.

Maybe so.

Then I's sure you realize that your attitude (cultivated within this incubator of grifters) makes you an attractive mark.

Maybe so.

[imsaguy]

TL;DR In short, there are times where it makes sense to keep cash on hand vs paying off outstanding debt.

Sure, those would be the times when you aren't making a good profit. But if you're doing all this work and taking all this risk and not making a good profit, you're basically a fool.

Ahhh.. right.  Every business makes tons of profit right away.  You never have to invest a shitton of time and effort to get it off the ground.    If you're so good at it, why are you spending so much time trolling these forums and not making money?

[WifeOfStarfish]

TL;DR In short, there are times where it makes sense to keep cash on hand vs paying off outstanding debt.

Sure, those would be the times when you aren't making a good profit. But if you're doing all this work and taking all this risk and not making a good profit, you're basically a fool.

Ahhh.. right.  Every business makes tons of profit right away.  You never have to invest a shitton of time and effort to get it off the ground.    If you're so good at it, why are you spending so much time trolling these forums and not making money?

+1 Imsaguy I love you (platonically - my heart belongs to Starfish)

Joel,
Man up - you're losing your mojo (are you using both hands?)

[JoelKatz]

Ahhh.. right.  Every business makes tons of profit right away.  You never have to invest a shitton of time and effort to get it off the ground.

I agree that you could need to borrow money for a short period of time while building a business. However, if you borrowed it at way above market rates, your first priority as soon as you were making a profit would be to pay those loans off.

If you're so good at it, why are you spending so much time trolling these forums and not making money?

There is no such thing as being "good at it". The claims are *impossible*. But I guess I'm willing to give it a try. Why don't you invest $5,000 with me? I'll take it to Vegas and if I win, I'll split the profits with you.

[imsaguy]

I agree that you could need to borrow money for a short period of time while building a business. However, if you borrowed it at way above market rates, your first priority as soon as you were making a profit would be to pay those loans off.

Bitcoin profit margins aren't like USD profit margins.  Bitcoin is throwing out tons of new coins out constantly.  When factored as strictly BTC and not USD loans, the opportunity for growth is much larger than your typical USD equivalency.  The reward halving will reduce this by a bunch, but its not going away entirely.

[JoelKatz]

Bitcoin profit margins aren't like USD profit margins.  Bitcoin is throwing out tons of new coins out constantly.  When factored as strictly BTC and not USD loans, the opportunity for growth is much larger than your typical USD equivalency.  The reward halving will reduce this by a bunch, but its not going away entirely.

This kind of reads like word salad to me. The price of Bitcoins is roughly constant, just volatile. So all it does is add additional risk. Any additional profit potential could equally well be realized with loans in dollars. Just use the dollars to buy Bitcoins, profit with the Bitcoins, sell the Bitcoins to pay back the loans. Even the best arbitragers in the most volatile markets don't make 1%/week.

[Kluge]

Ahhh.. right.  Every business makes tons of profit right away.  You never have to invest a shitton of time and effort to get it off the ground.

I agree that you could need to borrow money for a short period of time while building a business. However, if you borrowed it at way above market rates, your first priority as soon as you were making a profit would be to pay those loans off.

If you're so good at it, why are you spending so much time trolling these forums and not making money?

There is no such thing as being "good at it". The claims are *impossible*.

I like this. Shows with "Impossible" in the title seem to be popular on syndicated networks these days.

"Lending: Impossible"

In this episode... Patrick follows through with a plan of action to take with a loud man - HashKing finds a not-so-happy potential lendee displeased by loan rejection - and James gets an unusual credit application. Find out what happens - tonight - on Lending: Impossible.

*Intro*
*fade out*
*Fade into Patrick... 'click, clack, click, clack' ... Patrick stares at a computer monitor*
[WifeOfStarfish]: Pat - whatever happened to that loud man on the Internet?
[Patrick]: I started using the ignore feature.
[Ben]: Pat - you know your mic's on? You know what's nice about the ignore feature on this forum? With some browsers, when you click "show," it doesn't reformat the post window, leaving just a few pixels in height for viewing the message. It's too tiny to read, so even if you're tempted, you can't easily/quickly view what they've written. Day becomes much more productive.
[Patrick]: Good to know. Time to do some cooking stuff.

*Cut out - Fade into James in a slouching position, reading email on a plane with his tablet computer. He turns to an unidentified man.*
[James]: Yesterday, someone sent me ... an unusual credit application.
*Zoom to lenders' faces showing concern, shock, and awe -- Fast fade out, go to logo*
[Narrator]: Find out what happens next on Lending: Impossible. Stay tuned!


... That's good enough to justify a pilot, right?

[imsaguy]

This kind of reads like word salad to me. The price of Bitcoins is roughly constant, just volatile. So all it does is add additional risk. Any additional profit potential could equally well be realized with loans in dollars. Just use the dollars to buy Bitcoins, profit with the Bitcoins, sell the Bitcoins to pay back the loans. Even the best arbitragers in the most volatile markets don't make 1%/week.

First off, the largest stability there was in price since it was <.25 was this spring/summer when BTCST was in full swing.  From June to July, it gained 20%.  July to Aug it gained 30%. Aug to Sept it gained nearly 50% before losing that much.  That isn't constant.

Most lenders here are long in bitcoins, which means they don't want to convert their position to USD and lose out on coin appreciation, so your scenario doesn't fit.  Convincing a traditional bank to fund your bitcoin business really isn't going to happen, not necessarily because its a bad business idea, but because bitcoin is an unexplored minefield and no bank wants to be the guy out there exploring it first.

As to the market arbitrages, there is certainly at least one other way to make more than 1% a week in bitcoins. 

[WifeOfStarfish]

Ahhh.. right.  Every business makes tons of profit right away.  You never have to invest a shitton of time and effort to get it off the ground.

I agree that you could need to borrow money for a short period of time while building a business. However, if you borrowed it at way above market rates, your first priority as soon as you were making a profit would be to pay those loans off.

If you're so good at it, why are you spending so much time trolling these forums and not making money?

There is no such thing as being "good at it". The claims are *impossible*.

I like this. Shows with "Impossible" in the title seem to be popular on syndicated networks these days.

"Lending: Impossible"

In this episode... Patrick follows through with a plan of action to take with a loud man - HashKing finds a not-so-happy potential lendee displeased by loan rejection - and James gets an unusual credit application. Find out what happens - tonight - on Lending: Impossible.

*Intro*
*fade out*
*Fade into Patrick... 'click, clack, click, clack' ... Patrick stares at a computer monitor*
[WifeOfStarfish]: Pat - whatever happened to that loud man on the Internet?
[Patrick]: I started using the ignore feature.
[Ben]: Pat - you know your mic's on? You know what's nice about the ignore feature on this forum? With some browsers, when you click "show," it doesn't reformat the post window, leaving just a few pixels in height for viewing the message. It's too tiny to read, so even if you're tempted, you can't easily/quickly view what they've written. Day becomes much more productive.
[Patrick]: Good to know. Time to do some cooking stuff.

*Cut out - Fade into James in a slouching position, reading email on a plane with his tablet computer. He turns to an unidentified man.*
[James]: Yesterday, someone sent me ... an unusual credit application.
*Zoom to lenders' faces showing concern, shock, and awe -- Fast fade out, go to logo*
[Narrator]: Find out what happens next on Lending: Impossible. Stay tuned!


... That's good enough to justify a pilot, right?

Definitely - so funny 

[JoelKatz]

Most lenders here are long in bitcoins, which means they don't want to convert their position to USD and lose out on coin appreciation, so your scenario doesn't fit.  Convincing a traditional bank to fund your bitcoin business really isn't going to happen, not necessarily because its a bad business idea, but because bitcoin is an unexplored minefield and no bank wants to be the guy out there exploring it first.

If lenders are long on bitcoins, the last thing they'd want to do is borrow money denominated in bitcoins. If bitcoins go up, they lose money. If you're long on bitcoins, you borrow USD and buy Bitcoins. That way, if Bitcoins go up, you make money.

A lot of people misunderstood this and thought that Pirate was long on Bitcoins. They figured he was holding some large number of Bitcoins and that therefore when Bitcoins went up, he made money. But of course the truth is the reverse. Every Bitcoin he held was owed to someone and then some, so when Bitcoins go up, he loses money. There's no conceivable way anyone who accepts interest-bearing investments denominated in Bitcoins could hold that fund with an amount Bitcoins that total equal to or more than the amount invested (except at a loss).

[Bitcoin Oz]

You have proved that borrowing and lending BTC is irrational, risky and impossible.  I now agree with you.  So, I will never borrow or lend BTC again.  Now that we have that out of the way where does that leave investors that are long BTC?

I do not want to mine.  Too much trouble and of course, mining is way too risky.

I cannot buy mining bonds - way to risky or, reading posts on the subject they are another outright scam, right?

In fact as someone else posted every single issue on GLBSE is a scam, ponzi, rip off, short BTC or all of the above.

For example if you are long BTC you cannot rationally invest in a single real world business through GLBSE:  since real world profit is in fiat if BTC goes up relative to fiat then the dividend in BTC on any real world enterprise goes down and you would be better off in BTC so investment in any real world enterprise that pays dividend in BTC is actually short BTC.

Finally:  investing, loaning, using(purchasing items),  are all short BTC - since you would be better off holding.  I cannot think of a single use of BTC that is not short BTC!  Can you?

So I think we have proved that the only thing that makes sense is to buy BTC with fiat and hold, or, if I want to take on more risk but be rational about my risk: borrow fiat at a very low interest rate, buy BTC, and hold, right?  I have not read every single one of your posts but as far as I can tell this is the only thing you have ever proposed as a rational activity.

So, according to Joel my only rational action, if I believe in BTC, is to buy and hold/hoard, right?

I am very curious and ask you this one question directly:  Joel in your opinion, if I am long BTC, besides buy/hoard, what else can I do with BTC?

Its called a deflationary spiral.

[N12]

Obviously, the only rational course of action is to borrow USD and buy Bitcoins. Or leverage up on Bitcoinica.

Burt, I hope you are being sarcastic here and he really didn't change your mind. There are plenty of good opportunities to gain more BTC in my view.