Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%)

[philipma1957]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   339209
Total BTC   13.730M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42892876733 in 1495 blks         this is  (-2.45%)
 
Network total   310567.804 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.92 / 608 s


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,219,778,244         (-1.71%)
Adjust time:   After 1495 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   304,322,472 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:15 (2.2 minutes ago)


It is pretty simple  math we have at least 80ph in s-3's network wide.

If you are over 12 cents a kwatt your s3 is losing money.

I have to think that s3 owners are hoping to go back to a 300 usd price.  They are holding on at least for a while.  

The s3 now sells on ebay for  118 and make a best offer.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-SHA-256-BTC-Bitcoin-Miner-441GH-s-340w-Used-Full-Function-/261718288439?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item3cefa02837



and some s3+ are 119


http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-450-GH-Asic-Bitcoin-Miner-SHA256-In-hand-Not-S1-S2-S5-/291320098280?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item43d407ede8


I have about 200 in ebucks to spend and I would not buy these since they would kill me on power.

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[Swimmer63]

Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining?  They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.

[philipma1957]

Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining?  They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.

yeah this diff and the next will be very interesting.  Along with btc price.

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin.   Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin.   Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.

my birthday is this Jan 27 .

  So a new diff may come on my birthday.
 I want  a 41 diff and 260 price on my birthday.  I could live with that.

I am getting other fears about the industry.

 Gridseed blades went from 3000 usd to 100 usd and   LTC went from   40 usd to 2 usd.

I can see s-5's selling off at 200usd in an effort from bitmaintech to get out of the business.

I do not think we need this firesale.

[QuestionAuthority]

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

[philipma1957]

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

really hard to answer your question.

The 180 - 210 number  puts a lot of pressure on diff.  but will some go out and buy sp20's and s-5's to be able to earn over the price of power.

Also is or does a .2-.3 watt miner exist at a cheap price?

Assuming sp20's and s-5's stay  as the best gear around.  how low do they sell at?

I am 8 sp20's and 1 s-5.

In terms of power available I am just about all in.  maybe 1 more s-5 and I am maxed.

What about the guy with 200 s-3's  he can't get much for them on ebay craig's list etc.

but at 180 his s-3's are in the red.

How about a big farm 2000 s-3's and the farmer did not sell his s-3's to buy s-5's or sp20's

lets give him 4 cent power in the state of washington  and 2 cents for other costs and he is 6 cent power.

his 1ph clears 30000 usd a month.   now if he setup with s-3's in nov 2014  he spent 500000 to build the farm.  say he made 100,000 in nov dec and jan.

  he is 400,000 in the hole but his  cheaper power cost farm is paying above costs. 

he is standing pat.  and hoping to skip the s-5's and the sp20's .  he may have enough back on his investment of 500k in the late spring just in time for new gear.

[QuestionAuthority]

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

really hard to answer your question.

The 180 - 210 number  puts a lot of pressure on diff.  but will some go out and buy sp20's and s-5's to be able to earn over the price of power.

Also is or does a .2-.3 watt miner exist at a cheap price?

Assuming sp20's and s-5's stay  as the best gear around.  how low do they sell at?

I am 8 sp20's and 1 s-5.

In terms of power available I am just about all in.  maybe 1 more s-5 and I am maxed.

What about the guy with 200 s-3's  he can't get much for them on ebay craig's list etc.

but at 180 his s-3's are in the red.

How about a big farm 2000 s-3's and the farmer did not sell his s-3's to buy s-5's or sp20's

lets give him 4 cent power in the state of washington  and 2 cents for other costs and he is 6 cent power.

his 1ph clears 30000 usd a month.   now if he setup with s-3's in nov 2014  he spent 500000 to build the farm.  say he made 100,000 in nov dec and jan.

  he is 400,000 in the hole but his  cheaper power cost farm is paying above costs. 

he is standing pat.  and hoping to skip the s-5's and the sp20's .  he may have enough back on his investment of 500k in the late spring just in time for new gear.

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

[suchmoon]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

[QuestionAuthority]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

[suchmoon]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

Ok, let's define a "hobbyist". Is Philip here a hobbyist with his ~10 TH/s ? I'm sure he can afford to run these through the winter even if BTC is $85

I don't think farms have reserve capital, it's always been a race to upgrade... and even if they do, why would they burn it instead of shutting off the miners, at least temporarily?

Anyway, I'm not rich at all but I've ROIed on my S3s so I can dump them at any price... and keep running those S5s and SP20s as long as they make at least a penny. I'm certainly expecting some big farms stop mining before I do. I might be paying more for power but I have very little overhead and I have prepaid most of my costs... we'll see who bails first 

[QuestionAuthority]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

Ok, let's define a "hobbyist". Is Philip here a hobbyist with his ~10 TH/s ? I'm sure he can afford to run these through the winter even if BTC is $85

I don't think farms have reserve capital, it's always been a race to upgrade... and even if they do, why would they burn it instead of shutting off the miners, at least temporarily?

Anyway, I'm not rich at all but I've ROIed on my S3s so I can dump them at any price... and keep running those S5s and SP20s as long as they make at least a penny. I'm certainly expecting some big farms stop mining before I do. I might be paying more for power but I have very little overhead and I have prepaid most of my costs... we'll see who bails first 

Or maybe no one switches off and everyone runs in the red. The hash rate and difficult never drop. Then there's a greater loss to everyone and they effectively extended the time to profit out to 180 days even if the price increases in 90 days.

[Rum152]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

[QuestionAuthority]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

[Rum152]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

The question of the impact to the difficulty is directly tied to how much. I would say that the large mining farms would likely be quicker to react to changes in price/difficulty as they have much more money invested and it is their business. The current markup of found blocks in the last 24 hours includes ~25% from "unknown" sources, and 3% of "unknown with 1AcAj9p" (according to this which should be roughly accurate) and I would speculate that most if not all of this is corporate farmers. Plus you have some other amount of smaller corporate farms that mine on pools. So you have at the very least 28% of the network being controlled by large farms. They likely have various electric costs so they would not all turn off at once.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

[QuestionAuthority]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.

Well I like the idea of bitcoin as a possible hedge against your homeland (whatever country you are from)  having a crazy policy or price drop.

Kind of like a bar of gold or a few diamonds just in case.

In the last 25 years from 1990 to 2015 I believe wiki says  55 coups in different countries.
So the idea of having some btc in cyber space feels good to me. I kind of think this is the single best reason to support BTC.  Most people are tossed about by their countries rules and regs BTC unlock us a bit from the system.
I will always mine a bit   just to keep things going. I may not mine 5k an hour 24/7/365 like I am doing right now.

[Rum152]

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.

Well I would say that at-home miners will likely (accidentally) remain "on" for some time after their operation is no longer profitable simply because they will not run the calculation as to how much money they are actually making (or loosing).

You also need to take into consideration that it is always "cold" in some part of the world. During these periods if home miners were to turn off their heat and use their miners to heat their home then they would effectively be getting free (or greatly reduced price) electricity.

[QuestionAuthority]

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.