Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%)

[notlist3d]

Doing this again to help.  Phil is more then welcome to take back his difficulty threads at any time.

After last week it's looking a little better this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,493,398,715 (+3.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1995 Blocks, About 14.6 days
Hashrate(?):    297,824,921 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

It is a moderated thread as name slinging was effecting last thread.  Please keep anti-mining, people bashing, etc out of thread.

As always Happy Mining!

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[notlist3d]

Still a lot of time left but looking good:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,858,960,330 (-0.26%)
Adjust time:    After 1767 Blocks, About 13.1 days
Hashrate(?):    301,329,770 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

Also I appolgize for having to do a moderated thread this week.  Just trying to keep it civil and about mining.

[klondike_bar]

lets keep this one free of any 'serious'-ness....

my guess: -8%

[suchmoon]

If BTC stays below $200 we should see a 10%+ drop, if not this cycle then the next.

[philipma1957]

Thank you.  I do appreciate you taking over for  a while.  My wife and I just came back from her brother's place in NYC and he is getting better from his cancer surgery.

 I am getting a new s-5 today and will be posting some fan setups's over the next two days on the s-5 review thread.


Back to diff and btc price.

coin base price is 196

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   has a small drop (-0.901%)


Blocks   338937
Total BTC   13.723M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43257172381 in 1767 blks
 
Network total   328382.484 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.26 / 575 s


these prices have really set the industry on notice .  The golden goose can be killed off.

We had a 19000 coin theft beginning of the year.  We had the paycoin attack on bitcoin  which is what it was.  While the coin failed the attack was a success.     Whatttt!    yeah paycoin bleed 10 percent of btc's hash power on a pipe dream coin.

Now think this over for a minute GAW/Zen/paycoin/Josh    (boy Josh comes up with some bad  companies , I know a different Josh)

They pulled a ton of hash power off the BTC network.    So Microsoft/Dell/Warren Buffet/Intel/Walmart/amazon/McDonalds /Visa/Paypal all sit down in a room

they say Digital coin's have a value as a pay system  lets make NEW COIN.    They make new coin as paycoin said it would be.  It would really hurt Bitcoin.

I think a lot of big money people saw how a "Josh" was able to lower the entire btc network by over 10 % for 10 days or so on hype alone.
Paycoin's setup shows the way to beat the fuck out of btc.  I think it has panicked a few holders  into selling off big coinage.
     We may see under 150 usd by the end of the month as the new normal.

[huffdaddy5]

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

[philipma1957]

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

well btc at 180 usd and a  diff of 45 to 73 I turn a profit.

[philipma1957]

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

well btc at 180 usd and a  diff of 45 to 73 I turn a profit over power.

but s-3's are really hurting here.  if you do not have an sp20 or an s-5 or an sp30 sp31 sp35  you are a loser.

now if you have a big s-3 or s-4 setup  you can't sell the gear to help buy s-5's or sp20's

If you did the switch over to sp20's or any .5 watt gear you are pretty much a winner with these numbers. If you were slow to switch you are pretty much stuck with a ton of dead gear.

[alh]

Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?

[philipma1957]

Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?

Actually I switched early and made a lot of btc during the nicehash/westhash rush on paycoin renting. so my 8 remaining sp20's are not much left on initial payoff.

But you are correct in that my numbers are paying for running costs.

The sp20 is a case of did you buy it at the right time.  If you were too early you overpaid.  if you were too late you missed the westhash , nicehash payments.  If  you grabbed them at the right time like I did the crash is not so painful.

I also sold 13 or 14 s-3's .  So if I add the s-3 money and the overpayments from nice/westhash my 8 sp20's cost me. 3200 + 2000 = 5200 - 2000(s-3's) = 3200 - 1400 in cashed coins = 1800 out of pocket

maybe 1700 maybe 1900 as of today.   If i mine them at 1200gh x 8 = 9600gh at 4800 watts.  I may earn 2600 over my costs.  So I am not as torched as some.  I could turn a 700 to 900 profit over the 5200 I put up.


My biggest hit was buying  btc the last 6 days I purchased  5btc and I am down at least 500 on that.

But if you sat on s-3's they are close to worthless for resale now. turning to sp20's or s-5's is very hard to do today.

[alh]

Despite the Bitcoin price fall, there is one small bright spot. The difficulty rise may be near zero, with 12+ days to go:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,794,012,725 (-0.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1697 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    302,137,553 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

[notlist3d]

BTC price still down but up around 195.  Hopefully we continue to see it go up were around 8-9 percent up on price.

Slowly difficulty is going down.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,678,828,853 (-0.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1686 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    301,645,842 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

[philipma1957]

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-2.57%)      


Blocks   339054
Total BTC   13.726M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42838021959 in 1650 blks
 
Network total   292288.543 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.57 / 646 s ---------------------------If this stays around the drop may be bigger -4% or -5%

 The Bottom line is a lot of people are stuck with s-3's.  S-3's are more then 60th of the network they don't make much money.

Not as a diff of 43.9 and a price of  210 usd a coin.

I also got back a bit of value on the coins I purchased over the last week.

[davejh]

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

[klondike_bar]

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-2.57%)      

yeah, looks like the rebound happened nicely. Probably gonna dip below $200 again once more, and then hopefully we can finally see it get bck around $250 and begin a real uptrend

i think a -8% change is still very likely, there are probably a lot of machines mining at a slight loss because they expect BTC>$250 again soon. if tat doesnt happen it will keep shaking out all those with high priced power or low efficiency hardware.

Im just glad that of my 20.5TH, 16TH of it is 0.5w/GH or better, and the remainder is an SP10 (~0.9w), S2 (1w), and BTCG (1.2w).  I plan on turning the bitgarden off very soon, as well as the S2, since they are both working at a slight loss. Hopefully the market goes up and in a few weeks they will turn back on

[klondike_bar]

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.


personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

[notlist3d]

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.


personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

The A1/dragon who pay data centers to host will really hurt to.  I think we will see quite a few hit ebay.


Difficulty slowly going down.   And around 220 almost on btc price.  So doing a little better.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,327,517,233 (-1.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1618 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    294,102,980 GH/s

[notlist3d]

With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s

[philipma1957]

but on www.bitcoincharts.com

 still  lower

Blocks   339172
Total BTC   13.729M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43225557369 in 1532 blks
 
Network total   373889.925 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.13 / 505 s

[suchmoon]

With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s

After nearly 500 blocks done in this cycle the average 504-block time is 10.4 minutes, or ~4% below target.

It looks like there is a lot of hope still in the mining business that BTC will rise. I don't believe that only less than 10% of hashpower would become unprofitable with this recent exchange rate drop. Some are probably just trying to hold out until their next electric bill