ASIC Rigs Make Price Skyrocket along with difficulty?

[smoothie]

1,000GH/s today at difficulty 1751454.53 = ฿574.27 or $4,019.91 per day

So, if indeed these new ASICS come and do as they have been claimed to be able to do, any one who invests $30k into one of these rigs would have it paid off in about a week or so (give or take a few days).

This to me is very bullish (if BFL delivers on their hash promises).

If you don't get your order first (or have to wait while the deliveries come in)...I have a feeling the difficulty will shoot up quite quickly.

Only 13 of these 1,000GH/s ASIC rigs would need to hit the market to keep the bitcoin network at its current speed.

Uncanny! 


Thoughts?

[1714839844]

1714839844

[1714839844]

1714839844

[1714839844]

1714839844

[1714839844]

1714839844

[mem]

my thoughts are BFL are a disgusting company that has lied throughout their entire dealings with the bitcoin community.  

Should they achieve their claims you can expect shipping to be as disorganized as ever resulting in Inaba, GigaVPS and other key members getting them in record time while the rest of the world waits for BFL to "stress test" the all ready paid for units for the next 6-8 months at least.

BFL will insult and attack every customer that dares question them publicly - ie asking "where is my order that was supposed to be posted 2 decades ago".

So even if real expect BFL to trickle them out simply because their greedy bastards with 0 respect for their clients or because they are utterly incompetent.

[trogdorjw73]

Concerning the subject, more likely is that while ASIC rigs could very well cause difficulty to skyrocket, it is highly unlikely they'll cause the price to increase. If you have a $30000 loan to pay off, you're not going to hoard BTC the first week, plus the need to sell a substantial amount of mined BTC is likely to push pricing down.

Assuming they can get one rig per week out (which is doubtful, but whatever), the hash rate will go up and the blocks will be found more quickly, resulting in an accompanying spike in difficulty. Best bet would be to fire up the first such rig right after a difficulty increase, in which case you could get about 1/14 of the BTC for the next 7 days, and 1/15 for the following 7 days. The first person to start up their ASIC rig (most probably the company building said rigs -- just for testing, you understand) pays off the rig in about 8-9 days at the current prices. The second rig goes out the second week, and that person gets 1/15 of the BTC for the next 7 days, and 1/16 for the following 7 days. And so on and so forth. By the time the 13th rig goes out, the most likely scenario is that that person will only get about 1/26 of the total BTC for a week, and then 1/27, 1/28, etc. It will take them around three weeks at the current prices to pay off the hardware.

Now look at prices. By week 13, anyone who buys BTC is basically paying other people to buy expensive mining hardware, because those people are selling lots of BTC to pay off their hardware debt. We'd eventually be looking at half of all BTC mined being immediately sold, and if the ASICs keep coming that will continue to drop BTC prices. There's also the block reward halving to account for, which will double the pay off time and will very likely already be in place before the first ASIC rig hits the scene, so then we're looking at higher difficulty but less reward, and longer pay off times.

If I could get such a rig RIGHT NOW, yeah, sure, I'd try to find a way to scrape together $30,000. Unfortunately, I think mem is right: the whole thing will most likely be a fustercluck.

[FreeMoney]

Best bet would be to fire up the first such rig right after a difficulty increase, in which case you could get about 1/14 of the BTC for the next 7 days, and 1/15 for the following 7 days.

You might think about turning it on one block before the difficulty retarget, how much would you make on average? How much would it increase the difficulty on average? My intuition says that since you only affect the difficulty if you find a block it's never worth waiting. You profit more by finding any particular block than the finding of that block will slow you down later.

[Bigpiggy01]

my thoughts are BFL are a disgusting company that has lied throughout their entire dealings with the bitcoin community.  

Should they achieve their claims you can expect shipping to be as disorganized as ever resulting in Inaba, GigaVPS and other key members getting them in record time while the rest of the world waits for BFL to "stress test" the all ready paid for units for the next 6-8 months at least.

BFL will insult and attack every customer that dares question them publicly - ie asking "where is my order that was supposed to be posted 2 decades ago".

So even if real expect BFL to trickle them out simply because their greedy bastards with 0 respect for their clients or because they are utterly incompetent.

Damn I'm sorry to sat so but I'm full agreement with Mem here on BFL's business model.

[OgNasty]

My thoughts are that I'm glad to be the first person to have ordered the SCs...   

[John (John K.)]

1,000GH/s today at difficulty 1751454.53 = ฿574.27 or $4,019.91 per day

So, if indeed these new ASICS come and do as they have been claimed to be able to do, any one who invests $30k into one of these rigs would have it paid off in about a week or so (give or take a few days).

This to me is very bullish (if BFL delivers on their hash promises).

If you don't get your order first (or have to wait while the deliveries come in)...I have a feeling the difficulty will shoot up quite quickly.

Only 13 of these 1,000GH/s ASIC rigs would need to hit the market to keep the bitcoin network at its current speed.

Uncanny! 


Thoughts?

Difficulty change would keep the amount of bitcoins being produced on par with current rates. The price will still increase as the profitability rate for each MH/s will decrease due to the increased difficulty.

[mem]

Difficulty change would keep the amount of bitcoins being produced on par with current rates. The price will still increase as the profitability rate for each MH/s will decrease due to the increased difficulty.

Wishful thinking my friend.

Bitcoin miners fall into 2 groups, hoarders or dumpers.
There is a fixed income of BTC for miners regardless of the total hash power of the miners.
This just means we will have more miners selling the same amount of bitcoins monthly but less per miner.

For the price to go up there needs to be a demand from the buyers not the sellers (miners).

I personally hope that the difficulty skyrockets so high that no one including that abohrent company of Big Fucking Liars can make a profit and mining becomes purely altruistic .

[smoothie]

Difficulty change would keep the amount of bitcoins being produced on par with current rates. The price will still increase as the profitability rate for each MH/s will decrease due to the increased difficulty.

Wishful thinking my friend.

Bitcoin miners fall into 2 groups, hoarders or dumpers.
There is a fixed income of BTC for miners regardless of the hash power of amount of miners.
This just means we will have more miners selling the same amount of bitcoins monthly but less per miner.

For the price to go up there needs to be a demand from the buyers not the sellers (miners).

I personally hope that the difficulty skyrockets so high that no one including that abohrent company of Big Fucking Liars can make a profit and mining becomes purely altruistic .

I LOL'd

[Technomage]

The difficulty is likely to not skyrocket high enough to make ASIC's even close to a bad deal. They are so much more efficient than anything else that basically I doubt that there is currently enough money in the whole Bitcoin mining circles to buy enough of those to close the gap anytime soon. The second mining boom, I believe, has just started. ASIC mining will be very profitable for a good while most likely.

Eventually the gap will close but I don't think that anyone who has ordered until now, regardless of their order number, has to really worry about "getting it too late". Of course the earlier you get those chips the more money you'll make. I have some ordered as well but my number is so high that I'm basically hoping for good luck in the random draw.