The Mt. Gox Willy Bot Effect Today

[colinistheman]

Yes, except we don't know how many China actually bought yet. From that article we know they traded in the range of 100,000 btc per day, but trading is much different from outright purchases for the first time.

Don't forget arbitrage volume. MtGox by driving the price up must have created massive arbitrage opportunities so a lot of the volume on other exchanges could be abitrageurs taking advantage of the price lag to buy coins cheaper and either send them to MtGox to sell them there (a very bad idea in hindsight) or holding them to sell them back on the same exchange later after the price adjusted to close the gap with MtGox.

I hadn't thought of the arbitrage effect. Good point! Yet another side-effect of MtGod price manipulation.

edit: "MtGod" was a typo but I think I'll leave it

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[dserrano5]

RMB is Renminbi (China's currency)

So why is the percentage of RMB trades going up steadily as the price is going down? That again makes me think it's Willy bot correction.

The percentage of RMB trades would be going down most likely if China was exiting the market, not up.

That doesn't say anything regarding whether they are buying or selling. The percentage of trades may be going up while chinese people are selling, thus driving the price down.

[colinistheman]

RMB is Renminbi (China's currency)

So why is the percentage of RMB trades going up steadily as the price is going down? That again makes me think it's Willy bot correction.

The percentage of RMB trades would be going down most likely if China was exiting the market, not up.

That doesn't say anything regarding whether they are buying or selling. The percentage of trades may be going up while chinese people are selling, thus driving the price down.

True. Good point.

In that case, then it does look like there is some degree of correlation between China activity and price drops. But I would bet not the majority causality point

[brokedummy]

Yeah it's bad. When I got into crypto I thought real fiat was pushing up the price to $1200. Now I wonder just how many of these bubbles have been artificially inflated with the hopes and dreams of all the later to be goxxed folks.

[colinistheman]

Yeah it's bad. When I got into crypto I thought real fiat was pushing up the price to $1200. Now I wonder just how many of these bubbles have been artificially inflated with the hopes and dreams of all the later to be goxxed folks.

I feel the same... misguided bitcoin markets by manipulation. But at least the Willy bot thing is more difficult to pull off now that there are dozens of exchanges and not just a few... At least I think not...?

[funkenstein]

Are you looking for the total coins bought by people who speak Chinese?
Maybe you are talking about the volume on exchanges operated in China (with customers all over the world)?

No and No

Maybe you are talking about the CNY volume?  

Yes

Because the country of China is where they were banned. They didn't ban Chinese speaking people in USA from buying bitcoin for example, so that would be irrelevant.

There was never a ban.  People were able to purchase CNY and pull them out of the ATM using a bank card in mainland China within hours during all of 2014.  I'm sure you're aware of the mining situation as well.  

[12345mm]

YES ... folks NEED to understand this ... the willy bot almost entirely on it's own drove the price from a relatively stable +/-100 to around 1200 ... and more importantly , probably most importantly that people know about this is it was done with money that DID NOT EXIST ! ... because the willy bot account was created by the fraudulent mtgox exchange they just credited it with 1,000,000,000 of FAKE dollars ... as in fake non-existent *one billion dollars* ... then they spent about 2 months draining the earth of it's bitcoins whilst simultaneously driving the "real" price through the sky ... until their exchange ran out of actual fiat currency to cover their expenses and customer withdrawals ... then they shut down , ran off with the coins , and left everyone fucked ...

[2dogs]

YES ... folks NEED to understand this ... the willy bot almost entirely on it's own drove the price from a relatively stable +/-100 to around 1200 ... and more importantly , probably most importantly that people know about this is it was done with money that DID NOT EXIST ! ... because the willy bot account was created by the fraudulent mtgox exchange they just credited it with 1,000,000,000 of FAKE dollars ... as in fake non-existent *one billion dollars* .

This is a good summary that explains it all.

And yes, if folks could understand this, we wouldn't have those countless, useless threads in the Speculation section posted by the clueless.

[leopard2]

stop the rubbish, Willy was only active on Gox. And because LITTLE TO NO FIAT WAS LEAVING GOX, arbitrage was not possible and the price rise on all other exchanges, was driven by REAL EXISTING fiat.

sure, Gox prices were leading the way and indirectly drove up prices by motivating people to trade at higher prices everywhere else.

HOWEVER, the fiat used for these purchases was real, it came from real people, and still exists today, in exchanges and bank accounts. Prices can therefore go back to 1200 with this exact same liquidity.

It is a blatant lie and a myth if people say, BTC would be at $100 without the virtual Willy money  

[QuestionAuthority]

Bitcoiners seem to think fully regulated exchanges are evil. They would much prefer unregulated anonymous exchanges in jackoffistan.

[ensurance982]

Doesn't matter. I agree that a lot of people are pretty freaked out about the bot these days, because they believe the price was only a result of it, but it wasn't. It was just plain and old speculation like always. We don't need Willy to get to a new ATH!

[12345mm]

lol ... yeah ... because a billion fake dollars used to buy up all the btc possible in a 2 month period on what was the most high volume exchange at the time and at a time when every btc in existence was combined valued at roughly 1.2 billion couldn't possibly have led the price of those other exchanges ... and im not saying 0 external money was input during that time period , of course there was , but the new money on the other exchanges pales in comparison to the fake billion that gox injected during that time frame ... so in short , yes they did so dictate the price ... a lot of that money that was in existence on the other exchanges was already there and simply being transferred back and forth by people who were already day trading btc ... there quite simply was not another exchange that suddenly got that kind of capital injection ... you cannot understate the effect of a fake billion suddenly injected into the market and the effect it had on driving the price ...