Difficulty drop preceding BFL's ASIC release?

[Shadow383]

I've been thinking about where mining's headed with the (potential) release of BFL ASICs and such.

There's one factor that I don't think has really been discussed: Namely, when will BFL ask for their FPGAs back for trade-ins?
They could potentially be taking back a substantial number of singles and mini-rigs, so if this precedes the full ASIC release, is it not possible that this could knock several percent off the difficulty whilst we wait for their ASICs to hit the market?

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[smoothie]

Yes

[dropt]

IIRC BFL stated that your trade-in only needs to be shipped to them when a replacement (with your name on it) is there ready to go.

[Shadow383]

IIRC BFL stated that your trade-in only needs to be shipped to them when a replacement (with your name on it) is there ready to go.

At which point I guess it'll be 4-6 weeks 

[aigeezer]

Hard to know without having all their data about new/replacement orders and running a model, but... they will be shipping new orders as well as replacement orders, so I'd guess the overall effect would be to increase hash rate overall, slowly at first then rapidly, with little or no drop. Thus, my guess is no decrease in difficulty.

[Dargo]

Hard to know without having all their data about new/replacement orders and running a model, but... they will be shipping new orders as well as replacement orders, so I'd guess the overall effect would be to increase hash rate overall, slowly at first then rapidly, with little or no drop. Thus, my guess is no decrease in difficulty.

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in, so BFL will need a bunch of trade-in FPGAs before the first shipment goes out. So we may see a significant drop in difficulty shortly before ASICs come online. Maybe 10-15% or so. Nothing to get excited about, since it will be shortly followed by a large jump.

[aigeezer]

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in

Oops - I hadn't noticed that. Sorry!

[fcmatt]

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in

Oops - I hadn't noticed that. Sorry!

Based on previous hardware releases... Bfl does not seem to have ability to do mass release. If they do do this
Expect hardware to be shipped in 2013.

[lame.duck]

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in

Oops - I hadn't noticed that. Sorry!

Based on previous hardware releases... Bfl does not seem to have ability to do mass release. If they do do this
Expect hardware to be shipped in 2013.

Since the ASICs are new chips BFL could easily hire a contract manufacturer for production. Using used FPGAs is much more work intensive (expensive) since it has to be done (mostly) manually. 

[Dargo]

Well, BFL said the first shipment would go as a large batch, so they would have a pretty major PR disaster on their hands if they didn't follow through on this. And since they already have our money, I don't see why they wouldn't just wait until they are ready to ship a large batch. But yes I agree it could mean a further delay. Frankly, I'm not in a huge rush to get my ASICs. Because when they arrive my GPU rigs will quickly become useless. It's possible I might make more coin at first with ASIC, but I think before long the income will be about the same or even less as all the other ASICs come online. So to me, its more like I'm just changing out old equipment for new, but the old equipment works fine, so not in a rush to make the change. So, meh, 2013 is fine with me.

[Raize]

Well, BFL said the first shipment would go as a large batch, so they would have a pretty major PR disaster on their hands if they didn't follow through on this.

Source?

[Dargo]

Well, BFL said the first shipment would go as a large batch, so they would have a pretty major PR disaster on their hands if they didn't follow through on this.

Source?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89523.0

[BR0KK]

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in, so BFL will need a bunch of trade-in FPGAs before the first shipment goes out. So we may see a significant drop in difficulty shortly before ASICs come online. Maybe 10-15% or so. Nothing to get excited about, since it will be shortly followed by a large jump.

i read somewhere that they will ship your asic first and after it arrives, you have to send it in:)

[Dargo]

But the first shipment is going to go out all at once in a large batch, and well over 1/3 of it will be trade-in, so BFL will need a bunch of trade-in FPGAs before the first shipment goes out. So we may see a significant drop in difficulty shortly before ASICs come online. Maybe 10-15% or so. Nothing to get excited about, since it will be shortly followed by a large jump.

i read somewhere that they will ship your asic first and after it arrives, you have to send it in:)

Nope. I think common sense should tell you that they wouldn't do it this way, but in any case they have explicitly stated so.

http://www.butterflylabs.com/bitforce-sc-release-notes/

Relevant passage: "You may keep your current single (or Mini Rig) up to the date your SC based product is ready.  We’ll notify you at that time and wait for your trade in to arrive before releasing your unit."

[kunibopl]

theoretically all, who have an order in line with BFL, could take their current hardware off the net 2 weeks before BFL ships.
this would reduce difficulty and they would be more than compensated for the loss after the shipment.

[Jutarul]

I don't have a FPGA miner, so I am not affected by any of this. But I'd strongly advice to keep your unit until the replacement is in your hand and ready to go. There's no guarantee on how long it takes to do the swap - and that assumes that everything goes well with the shipment.. Also gives you a chance to check your satisfaction level with the new equipment.

You should ask for trade-in options. E.g. if you get to keep your unit until the replacement arrives they may keep 10% of the trade-in value? Then you can decide for yourself how you want to handle this...

[Dargo]

I don't have a FPGA miner, so I am not affected by any of this. But I'd strongly advice to keep your unit until the replacement is in your hand and ready to go. There's no guarantee on how long it takes to do the swap - and that assumes that everything goes well with the shipment.. Also gives you a chance to check your satisfaction level with the new equipment.

You should ask for trade-in options. E.g. if you get to keep your unit until the replacement arrives they may keep 10% of the trade-in value? Then you can decide for yourself how you want to handle this...

So you are suggesting that BFL collect more money (10% of the trade-in value) for people who want to keep the trade-in till after they receive their new equipment? This would greatly complicate billing arrangements, and BFL can barely cope as it is with billing. And what recourse would BFL have if some people decide not to send the trade-in? It's a nice thought, but not very practical. I think BFL will probably not deviate from what they have said, and require that you send the trade-in before they ship the new stuff. But I suppose that if they don't actually stand to gain much from the "refurbished" FPGAs, then they might not care very much, and might be OK with people shipping them after the new stuff arrives.   

[squall1066]

IIRC BFL will let you know when your trade in item is ready to be shipped, Then wait for yours to be sent back BEFORE sending your item.

Sure someone will correct me if i'm way off.

[50BTC.com]

How BFL would know you didn't send them some books instead of fpga?

[Shadow383]

How BFL would know you didn't send them some books instead of fpga?

Well presumably they won't ship ASICs until they get the trade-in units.

Hence why I'd be very skeptical high on the order list about doing a trade-in. Might miss the boat on low-difficulty ASIC mining....

[BR0KK]

They told the people here different

U could mine with it and then (if your asic is in your hands) send it in.

[Cablez]

Where did you see that, because I don't think it was ever stated that way from BFL?

[DOH!]

Getting back to the OP, each SC that ships theoretically takes the place of what, 50 singles?? I really doubt that ratio works out to a drop in difficulty.  Not to mention that jalapenos will be shipping too, each taking the place of 5 singles.  In BFL timeframe, we'll see an initial launch in December, right around the reward halving.  Logic would suggest that people won't turn off their GPU rigs until after both of those things happen.   

[Dargo]

Getting back to the OP, each SC that ships theoretically takes the place of what, 50 singles?? I really doubt that ratio works out to a drop in difficulty.  Not to mention that jalapenos will be shipping too, each taking the place of 5 singles.  In BFL timeframe, we'll see an initial launch in December, right around the reward halving.  Logic would suggest that people won't turn off their GPU rigs until after both of those things happen.   

I think you are missing the OP's point here. Of course there will ultimately be a difficulty jump for the reasons you give. But if BFL requires everyone to ship their old singles and MRs back *before* their SC hardware is released, this would lower the network hashrate (and difficulty) short term. So the discussion of whether or not BFL will require that they have the old hardware "in hand" before they ship the new hardware is entirely relevant to the OP.

[bigasic]

that would give those (like me) a slight(a few day) advantage as they dont have to wait for me to ship a mini rig. Once they are ready to ship, It should ship. I just wonder how many of each item will be in the first group....

I bet they will keep the hashrate semi-low. So, it doesn't make the difficulty raise dramatically the first few weeks.. thats my guess..

Lets just hope that everything goes as planned.....