forget about TA, it only gives you estimate and works sometimes because it allows you to gauge speculative behavior... we are going lower for very simple reasons:
- MtGOX fake pump that overvalued bitcoin many times over and has undermined trust in bitcoin
- Dot com bubble kind of situation where more investors have finally understood that they've overpaid for something that hasn't delivered to their expectations
- Novelty is wearing off, too many promises but less deliverables
- Bitcoin got abused by speculators turning it into more trading profit machine rather than nurturing its ecosystem
- Investors turning to technologically far better cryptocoins that don't need to feed greedy ASIC manufacturers and large mining operations
- Ample supply of coins and no real demand
- Regulations and more regulations
bitcoin arena is now a crowd of bagholders who are just waiting to offload their bags to the next joe... but it won't happen because speculators are even smarter than that crowd...
Better advice: Place your Bitstamp bids at USD$122.00.
Why $122.00?
Because of the invisible lines and supports. There's a group of weird preachers here who think that if a price moves 1$ above or below a certain price hell will break loose and we'll have another panic. All these people who bought now will immediately sell below 200 making us go down to 120 or something... yeah, right
The question is: if I didn't sell for $150 and again when it went back above $200, why would I sell when it hits $150 again?
Well, I like to ridicule TA all the time but it has shown its validity several times here already. Maybe humans don't react like that at first sight, but trading bots for example do. In that case, a drop of 1 dollar below a crucial level can have dramatic consequences.
This still doesn't answer why would we go lower than previously. If you like reading charts take a look at stamp March -July 2014.
We had a big fall from 640 to a low of 335 followed by a bounce to 539 and another fall back to 417, but the price never went lower. It went up again, this time passing the bounce high up to 680. The same thing can happen now.
