Will the popping miningbubble cause price to collapse?

[deine mudder]

We know about the difficulty-issue and potential chainreactions associated with it (slow transactions cause further selloff which in turn causes slower transactions).

Now the Bitcoin network has been proven to be unsustainable thanks to the high inflation. So we anticipate for now a drop in hashrate due to it being unprofitable after the miners dumped down the market and continue to do so. It's not their mistake, it's a fundamental mistake in bitcoin.

So for the future network security of Bitcoin is anticipated to drop off. Sellpressure from miners is not going to be lower all of 2015.
So sellpressure from inflation paired with a drop in network security is on the map for Bitcoin this year.

My question is: would cause a drop in network security further sellpressure from people exit their holdings? Are we facing another possible chainreaction here?

Everything started with the sellpressure from the miners giving the bears the ultimate advantage over the market for a whole year. Climax in crash after 1 year bearmarket. Now mining bubble pops. Network security will suffer considerably. Sellpressure from miners and general marketcondition should be roughly the same as price doesn't matter because inflationrate is fixed.

As selling continues and hashrate drops; will the drop in hashrate cause further sellpressure?

Todays drop in hashrate: almost 20%

[Omikifuse]

the other way is more likely, in my opinion(prices down creating a mining bubble)

mining is not that unprofitable if you already have mining stuff

[ElectricMucus]

Don't warn them.

[tadakaluri]

At this price Mining is not profitable any more.

[waaat?]

sure,

less network security = less value = less incentive for mining

It's a circle and we started yet another new negative feedbackloop. Bitcoin is maybe not even going to recover from this mega pump and dump.
I don't see it reach bottom above 100$
For all i know Bitcoin isn't going to recover soon without a shit load of stupid money. Bagholders should just hope someone pumps and dumps it again before it dies off.

[Bitcopia]

I watched the mining panel speak this past weekend at the North American Bitcoin Conference. As a highly competitive field, miners have an incentive to discourages others from entering, so they will tell you that their operations are not profitable, or keep quiet on the subject. However, the panel was rather resounding in the fact that mining is still profitable for their companies.

For some perspective, view this chart: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Then compare it to price for the same one year time frame. If mining was not profitable, this would not be happening.

Now the Bitcoin network has been proven to be unsustainable thanks to the high inflation.

Nonsense. What do you think you know that the NYSE, USAA, BBVA, Vikram Pandit, Tom Glocer, and NTT DoCoMo don't? I'm assuming you saw the announcement today of their $75MM series C with Coinbase.

[DaRude]

We know about the difficulty-issue and potential chainreactions associated with it (slow transactions cause further selloff which in turn causes slower transactions).

Now the Bitcoin network has been proven to be unsustainable thanks to the high inflation. So we anticipate for now a drop in hashrate due to it being unprofitable after the miners dumped down the market and continue to do so. It's not their mistake, it's a fundamental mistake in bitcoin.

So for the future network security of Bitcoin is anticipated to drop off. Sellpressure from miners is not going to be lower all of 2015.
So sellpressure from inflation paired with a drop in network security is on the map for Bitcoin this year.

My question is: would cause a drop in network security further sellpressure from people exit their holdings? Are we facing another possible chainreaction here?

Everything started with the sellpressure from the miners giving the bears the ultimate advantage over the market for a whole year. Climax in crash after 1 year bearmarket. Now mining bubble pops. Network security will suffer considerably. Sellpressure from miners and general marketcondition should be roughly the same as price doesn't matter because inflationrate is fixed.

As selling continues and hashrate drops; will the drop in hashrate cause further sellpressure?

Todays drop in hashrate: almost 20%

Blah blah blah newbie account asking if bitcoin is dead, but i'll bite. No, the mined supply is FIXED at about 3600BTC a day till the halving next year, FIXED means it won't change regardless of the price, mining "Sellpressure" cannot physically increase above that. Miners can dump all their coins when they're super profitable and can do it when they're in the red. Not sure how else i can stress that.

Todays drop in hashrate: almost 20%

Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!! Let me try too, did you know that hashrate is up like 10% since Jan 14!! Relax it will survive

[Bitcopia]

.....Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!! Let me try too, did you know that hashrate is up like 10% since Jan 14!! Relax it will survive....

Actually, hash rate in January 2014 averaged about 10MM Gh/s. It is currently about 300MM Gh/s for an increase of about 30X in one year. Check out the link I posted directly above your comment.

But yeah, according to every newbie and short positioned troll, Bitcoin is dead and stuff. Cut your looses.

[deine mudder]

Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!!

How is 'the last 24 hours' a random timeframe?

[DaRude]

.....Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!! Let me try too, did you know that hashrate is up like 10% since Jan 14!! Relax it will survive....

Actually, hash rate in January 2014 averaged about 10MM Gh/s. It is currently about 300MM Gh/s for an increase of about 30X in one year. Check out the link I posted directly above your comment.

But yeah, according to every newbie and short positioned troll, Bitcoin is dead and stuff. Cut your looses.

Meant  Jan 14, 2015 looks like it dropped to 229THashes around then. But yeah think the point got across.

[Cluster2k]

We've seen this before, but on a smaller scale in 2011.  Bitcoin's value collapsed and miners pulled out.  Difficulty took longer to adjust than usual but the network stayed up and bitcoin didn't collapse.  I expect any similar wind down in 2015 to be no different.  Bitcoin's network is safe even if the price falls to US$50.

[DaRude]

Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!!

How is 'the last 24 hours' a random timeframe?

Well because based on my analysis of the last 24hrs... just sounds silly. If you don't want to be taken as another fearmongering noob account do more research. When does the protocol adjusts, how much can it adjust for, at what point it'll start having issues and adjustments can't compensate? By how much? How much will 3 confirmation in 30min vs 33min (10% increase) really effect anything? etc etc etc. Or you can just keep posting with hey guys did you know that the sky is falling, but this time it's super cereal.

[deine mudder]

Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!!

How is 'the last 24 hours' a random timeframe?

Well because based on my analysis of the last 24hrs... just sounds silly. If you don't want to be taken as another fearmongering noob account do more research. When does the protocol adjusts, how much can it adjust for, at what point it'll start having issues and adjustments can't compensate? By how much? How much will 3 confirmation in 30min vs 33min (10% increase) really effect anything? etc etc etc. Or you can just keep posting with hey guys did you know that the sky is falling, but this time it's super cereal.

It's 20% increase today. 12 minutes for 1 confirm. 72 minutes for a transaction. Soon a bankwire is faster than bitcoin.

Do you think hashrate is not going to drop further? It surely is going to.

Bitcoin is a horrible coin with horrible fundamentals in the year 2015. (high inflation - inefficient, slow difficulty adjustement with no accuracy resulting in a kind of random emission of coins and blocktimes, slow transactions of at least 1 hour)
If you would relaunch Bitcoin, the coin, as an altcoin today people will not buy it. Maybe think about that.

The only reason bitcoins' price can be justified was the hype from the novelty and the high hashrate. Both is going away.

The main topic of the thread was if another new negative feedbackloop with the drop in hash could be happening.

Sour bagholders in the thread does not enrich the discussion. Topic is negative feedbackloops based on hash-drop and not how paranoid you are about bears.

[deine mudder]

Bitcoin's network is safe even if the price falls to US$50.

Why the high incentive for miners then in the first place?
Bitcoin bagholders are becoming more and more contradicting with what they said a few months ago!

[twiifm]

Bitcoin's network is safe even if the price falls to US$50.

Why the high incentive for miners then in the first place?
Bitcoin bagholders are becoming more and more contradicting with what they said a few months ago!

People will convince themselves of anything when they are losing money.  Reality is difficult to face

[DaRude]

Yay more numbers taken from the random time frame!!

How is 'the last 24 hours' a random timeframe?

Well because based on my analysis of the last 24hrs... just sounds silly. If you don't want to be taken as another fearmongering noob account do more research. When does the protocol adjusts, how much can it adjust for, at what point it'll start having issues and adjustments can't compensate? By how much? How much will 3 confirmation in 30min vs 33min (10% increase) really effect anything? etc etc etc. Or you can just keep posting with hey guys did you know that the sky is falling, but this time it's super cereal.

It's 20% increase today. 12 minutes for 1 confirm. 72 minutes for a transaction. Soon a bankwire is faster than bitcoin.

Do you think hashrate is not going to drop further? It surely is going to.

Bitcoin is a horrible coin with horrible fundamentals in the year 2015. (high inflation - inefficient, slow difficulty adjustement with no accuracy resulting in a kind of random emission of coins and blocktimes, slow transactions of at least 1 hour)
If you would relaunch Bitcoin, the coin as an altcoin today people will not buy it. Maybe think about that.

The only reason bitcoins' price can be justified was the hype from the novelty and the high hashrate. Both is going away.

Soon? Now you're just trolling.

Inflation is not really a correct term here. It's fixed and known so no surprises here. When you own 1 BTC you'll never own less than 1 out of 21MIL.  

It might drop but i doubt by a lot. New manufactured miners are in the pipelines and that takes time.
Blah blah blah yes it's first to the table, that's its advantage. It's usable because everyone else uses it, it doesn't have to be the best. Is this the point where you start pushing some alt? And your new alt will be at risk of being replaced by a more innovative alt that will come out the following year etc..etc..etc... bitcoin just needs to be flexible and be able to adjust to major innovations e.g. side chains

[DaRude]

Bitcoin's network is safe even if the price falls to US$50.

Why the high incentive for miners then in the first place?
Bitcoin bagholders are becoming more and more contradicting with what they said a few months ago!

In one word distribution. Chicken before the egg problem

[Bitcopia]

It's 20% increase today. 12 minutes for 1 confirm. 72 minutes for a transaction. Soon a bankwire is faster than bitcoin.

Transactions broadcast instantly, so 0 minutes for a transaction. However many blocks you need to feel comfortable that the sender won't perform a double spend is up to you. 6 blocks is arbitrary, and quite unnecessary for any payment under $10k. I would say 1 confirmation should suffice for anything under $1k. And this is for direct P2P transfers, that don't involve a third party.

Comparing it to a bank wire introduces a third party. If you introduce a third party to bitcoin, impulse instant tranfers, recently introduced by Jeff Garzik and Bitpay, make payments instantly secure.

[Shiver]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

[twiifm]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

Bitcoin is 9% inflation and USD is 1.5%.  Inflation has to do with exchange rate.  New bitcoins coming into existence means equals amount of dollars must come into Bitcoin to support the price.

Long bear market is a sign that new dollars isn't coming in