If you really think the price is going to go back up, then don't you necessarily have to assume that (nearly) all the miners have been selling. I do.
Isn't the whole point, that the last 12 month decline was due to loss of confidence, fear in the market and was exacerbated by selling pressure from miners, who believe it is more beneficial to cash out BTC now than hold for a lower price.
For an epic rally to begin (and I'm not saying it will) wouldn't it require, firstly, capitulation. This final selloff from those in the grips of despair would result in sales drying up. Price stabilises, which causes a gradual increase in confidence. Any small increase in buying starts to naturally eat up supply, the gradually increasing price, means more dollars are needed to buy the same BTC so this delicate equilibrium will move along, but as it tends upwards it reveals an underlying increase in money moving into the market.
As the price rises, miners must then start to consider holding for better prices. This results in a diminishing supply being chased by a gradually increasing amount of dollars...
This sounds familiar, but of course in no way should you expect it. Its just one possible scenario.
I think that what I describe above is the start of a full cycle, which culminates in exponential growth with blowoff top and then prolonged bear market.
We've just been through a full cycle, and I think that although there have been a few other ATH only one of them was the culmination of a full cycle.
I don't think the rise to 266 and crash to 60 was a cycle in its own right, but just a temporary correction during the entire cycle we've been through
I see this as the first cycle:
$0.60 -> $32
there was a mini run up to ~15 and a correction to ~8 early in the cycle
$5 -> $1200
the run up to 266 and correction to 60 is similar to the smaller move in the previous cycle
both of these cycles had a discernible 'bear market' following the blow off, both had an aborted launch followed by major exponential growth culminating in a price collapse.
I can imagine that this kind of price action is almost inevitable result of human behaviour/emotion, and that its not unreasonable to think that we'll see the same kind of cycle unfold again - the now infamous
560k prediction post touches on this idea of repeated boom/bust cycles during the course of adoption.
I think its a mistake to try and predict the actual prices for the purposes of trying to trade them, but its a fun exercise to think about the size of the moves one could expect should we see another similar market cycle, so with that in mind lets go ahead and extrapolate:
$0.6 -> 32 : 53x
$5 -> 1200 : 240x
If we take the current price of around $200 as being a stable platform for luanch (yes I am choosing these words on purpose
)
We take our worst case scenario is being x53 multiplier, a middle ground of 146x and a best case a repeat of the 240x move we see these potential new ATH's:
53x => $10,600
146x =>$29,200
240x => $48,000
Looks like my
5k bet is pretty conservative by those figures!
Now I'm not one to shy away from considering outlandish numbers, so lets imagine for a moment that as the length of the cycle increases then so the magnitude of the move also increases. if we do the most basic linear extrapolation, the first move was x53 the second was x240 so the third must be x1087
Now that gives us $217k. A figure I'm sure that the trollers will all be delighted with as they undoubtedly all actually hold BTC. I ain't even mad. How could I be. At that price I might finally be able to afford that
porsche I've been after.
Fire away trolltards, should be plenty of easy pickings in this post
