Market Cycles - why 560k might be wrong!

[sgbett]

Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't 

[SmoothCurves]

Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't 

Maybe we'll see this: https://www.tradingview.com/v/dHbn7XZ4/

[SnokkomBTC]

Maybe we'll see this: https://www.tradingview.com/v/dHbn7XZ4/

Lol, that's wishfull thinking  

[sgbett]

It begins

[Fakhoury]

It begins

Sir, can you please clear for me, what is beginning please ?

I want to talk discuss some issues with you, if you don't mind, but I would like to have some information cleared for me.

Thank you

[maku]

It begins

Sir, can you please clear for me, what is beginning please ?

I want to talk discuss some issues with you, if you don't mind, but I would like to have some information cleared for me.

Thank you

Apparently this market cycle Op described earlier is starting now.
He believes (I building my opinion after studying diagrams in the OP) that after halving in late 2016/17 Bitcoin price will rise dramatically and reach 10k.
From that price will be only higher and higher and might reach 500k per coin in the future. Overly optimistic scenario if you ask me.

[Only Looking]

It begins

Sir, I am watching this forum more than three years, and today I registered, only to can tell you: Thank you for your posts. I consider them very important. I am glad you are after more than three months posting again.

[sgbett]

Jan 2015...

Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't 

Jun 2016...

It begins

Today...



We see the ~3K top, and the correction. This correction may not yet be over, and it could go deep (think a retest of the old ATH at around $1400). The next few weeks leading up to august 1st is the perfect backdrop for such an event...

Anyway, if you thought the 3k move up was good, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Prepare yourselves for "Bitcoin Bull Run III: Six figures"

A proper chain split, a market now with some surety over the future and 2 years pent up 'scaling uncertainty' based demand. The moon looks closer than it ever did.

[fabiorem]

Each bull-run for a figure. First for three figures, second for four figures, so the third will be five figures. It will reach 10000 by next year, then when it will be near 30k there will be another bear market like it is having now. But by that time, the financial institutions will provoke it to eliminate the common players, and there will be drops with four figures, from 30 to 25 and up again to 32, so it will be very hard to buy bitcoins. If you buy for example 10k satoshis, you risk having it drop to 1 satoshi, in fiat value.

So now it's the better time to buy and accumulate. The trade in the future will be only for altcoins, who will follow bitcoin rising to the moon, since people will not stop trading for them to increase their satoshis. But the trade for fiat will be dominated by financial institutions, who will put millions into it. It will be very hard for the average person to hold it. It will be like a wall separating both camps.

The idea is never to sell bitcoins, but to use them to buy things, to charge pre-paid cards and pay services. I always paid my storage cloud with bitcoins, after recent rise I paid until 2019 since they were satoshis bought in 2015. But it is still early and most sites won't accept it. And when they will accept the price will be so high that the average guy, who is not buying now, will have to spend it immediately to not lose it. The banks will probably create a protocol using smart contracts to convert fiat to bitcoin instantly, and will get even richer with all the speculation going on around it.

[buwaytress]

Each bull-run for a figure. First for three figures, second for four figures, so the third will be five figures. It will reach 10000 by next year, then when it will be near 30k there will be another bear market like it is having now. But by that time, the financial institutions will provoke it to eliminate the common players, and there will be drops with four figures, from 30 to 25 and up again to 32, so it will be very hard to buy bitcoins. If you buy for example 10k satoshis, you risk having it drop to 1 satoshi, in fiat value.

So now it's the better time to buy and accumulate. The trade in the future will be only for altcoins, who will follow bitcoin rising to the moon, since people will not stop trading for them to increase their satoshis. But the trade for fiat will be dominated by financial institutions, who will put millions into it. It will be very hard for the average person to hold it. It will be like a wall separating both camps.

The idea is never to sell bitcoins, but to use them to buy things, to charge pre-paid cards and pay services. I always paid my storage cloud with bitcoins, after recent rise I paid until 2019 since they were satoshis bought in 2015. But it is still early and most sites won't accept it. And when they will accept the price will be so high that the average guy, who is not buying now, will have to spend it immediately to not lose it. The banks will probably create a protocol using smart contracts to convert fiat to bitcoin instantly, and will get even richer with all the speculation going on around it.

Still too early to tell. It was only last month that we thought this was "finally happening", along with all the premature reports of crypto markets running red with blood. Only for everything to recover in less than 24 hours. I have a feeling we're headed for a few more false alarms before the real easing down below $2,000. Similarly, a few more false alarms past $3,000 long before it goes for new ATHs closer to $4,000.

[explorer]

It begins

And how.

[sgbett]

For those following along at home, I was wrong about the 3k one, its actually gone much higher!

note that if we do get the strong correction here then this run up will have been the first "mini" run up before the actual "real" one - which at the time I said would be driven by wall street - that takes us to 6 figures.


Maybe.

[criptix]

For those following along at home, I was wrong about the 3k one, its actually gone much higher!

note that if we do get the strong correction here then this run up will have been the first "mini" run up before the actual "real" one - which at the time I said would be driven by wall street - that takes us to 6 figures.


Maybe.

Im thinking around the same line.
Chances look good for 30-40++k next year!

6 figures is too early for 2018 - but somewhere 19/20 adoption should go exponential and we will see 6 figures.

[Equus]

For those following along at home, I was wrong about the 3k one, its actually gone much higher!

note that if we do get the strong correction here then this run up will have been the first "mini" run up before the actual "real" one - which at the time I said would be driven by wall street - that takes us to 6 figures.


Maybe.

This looks to me like the Silk Road bust for this cycle. 

It shocks me to say so, but then it shocks me to be planning for the impact of capital gains on my 2017 taxes.

[Bossian]

Jan 2015...

Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't 

Jun 2016...

It begins

Today...



We see the ~3K top, and the correction. This correction may not yet be over, and it could go deep (think a retest of the old ATH at around $1400). The next few weeks leading up to august 1st is the perfect backdrop for such an event...

Anyway, if you thought the 3k move up was good, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Prepare yourselves for "Bitcoin Bull Run III: Six figures"

A proper chain split, a market now with some surety over the future and 2 years pent up 'scaling uncertainty' based demand. The moon looks closer than it ever did.

Bumping an old thread again.

Interesting how you predicted 6 figures here, yet on the other thread you see 2.4k for year 2021 (February) all this because switching to Bitcoin Cash?

Your threads make me confused even though some predictions did come true...

[fabiorem]

Actually sgbear is into BSV, not BCH.

[aardvark15]

I was talking about this from a slightly different perspective in a recent topic I started. I think there may very well be another Bitcoin bubble by the end of 2021. If it follows the same pattern as the last 2 bubbles, then it will be an exponential increase but it’s very difficult to predict how high. Maybe $500,000 maybe higher.

[1Referee]

Interesting how you predicted 6 figures here, yet on the other thread you see 2.4k for year 2021 (February) all this because switching to Bitcoin Cash?

In one of his recent posts he claims that he owns more Bitcoin than a lot of the people here, yet he doesn't seem to think it's a good idea to cash out right now with how bearish his price forecast for Bitcoin is.

Actually sgbear is into BSV, not BCH.

Doesn't really matter. The holders of either shitcoin have been rekt brutally.

The only ever valuable utility they served was that they made Bitcoin holders richer by allowing them to sell fork coins for Bitcoins.

[fabiorem]

The only ever valuable utility they served was that they made Bitcoin holders richer by allowing them to sell fork coins for Bitcoins.

Dont know about you, but I usually call forked coins "dividends".