Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[exstasie]

They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

So wasting time against paid-propaganda and trolls of all kinds is what you want to do for a living?

Paid propaganda?

I just said why it's not a waste of time. Do you generally refuse to engage with people who have opposing viewpoints?

As a trader, I'm constantly looking for holes in my analysis. Having bears and altcoin supporters in the room is a hell of a lot more useful for that (and interesting) than endless permabull groupthink.

They are toxic to the environment and only serve to expose our resources. Defending against FUD is x-fold more expensive than spreading it. They don't challenge anything.

You are blowing things out of proportion. We're talking about a forum, man.

I'm not defending against FUD. I would never bother doing that LOL. I'm trying to engage in a discussion. Whatever you think about MarquiseMuseum's or sgbett's intentions, they are more interesting than 90% of the people posting in Speculation.

There's no point in giving a shit about FUD or trolls. Weak hands are going to sell either way. Worrying about that seems like an epic waste of time to me.

I did not know that Bitmex offerd x100 leverage since 2014, well then the foundation of $300k is spoiled because it was not newly accessible to retail. For me, it was only recently that I heard of this type of leverage because it is widely advertised.

So, it is even stronger indication of sub $2000 for BTC.

Meh, people said the same thing in 2014 after Bitfinex exploded in popularity. "Now that the market can be shorted, it'll never go up again!" Right.

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[sgbett]

i'm sensing overconfidence.

sgbett is in bed with BSV scammers, and listening to him will for sure lead to financial loss as he has malicious intent. This is course assumes that he won't get 'random-lucky', for which the possibility always exists.

*chuckles* same old line of reasoning. Aussie-man sgbett bad. he scammer.

I don't want your money, I don't want you to buy BSV, I want people like you to hold your BTC til the very end.

[philipma1957]

I almost never get involved in fights but Lauda has been temporarily excluded from my trust list. Most likely I will put Lauda back on the list on Monday or Tuesday.

This is complicated since I see two people will fully attacking BTC and claiming alts coins are better choices then BTC.

I am going to say they are full of shit and are simply getting people to panic so they can profit.

The reality is all crypto coins are pretty much bullshit same as all types of 💵 fiat diamonds 💎 sapphires rubies emeralds they have value because people think they have value. People agree to a number and that’s about it.

While I detest the anti bitcoin bullshit pro other coin positions posted here.  I don’t think Lauda should have flagged the guy MarquiseMuseum

I do say this he is trashing BTC to make money 💰 and Lauda has that right.

Sgbett is also trashing BTC to make money but he is frankly admitting this which is easy to see.

I simply don’t know that either one should be flagged. For trashing btc to make money.

I will mull this over and on Monday I will get back to this thread.

At Lauda pm me we can talk
At marquiseMuseum pm me we can talk.

My position stays the same on btc and alts read my signature.

[STT]

amiga because it got 8 bits

Commodore Amiga was a 32bit CPU first sold 1987, great innovation and potential used for many years but PC was unbeatable because it was modular (it was inferior for a decade after in some specifics) so it didnt matter as much if Amiga was better, PC served the common need better.      If we're taking lessons from history such as quoting Mt.Gox when that was a known mistake even back in 2013 people realised something was wrong but people will continue always to do the easiest thing.   The more simple the conclusion the more likely it will be repeatedly true.

Obviously Bitcointalk is the wrong place to critizice bitcoin.

Totally the right place so long as its BTC we discuss.    If criticism isnt possible then thats a failure right there but its not the case.

No alt is going to challenge BTC especially until its far easier to use by a big margin, then we can talk about vast populations of people who arent in crypto and could be and might be if its thats simple.   Any time they bring out a mobile phone with a wallet on it, thats probably the most relevant source of future success available.   When I was growing up, most people didnt like or couldnt handle PC, console was not really it as its just one task but mobile was the big sea change.  People dont want crypto but they might need it, its not the technical people who love the details who matter for future success I guess.
   I dont agree Mt.Gox can give us a specific price target 6 years later, it was an inaccuracy in the price.  I guess the volume of coins was significant and is being distributed now from it and I dont know the schedule of that sale.

[sgbett]

Sgbett is also trashing BTC to make money but he is frankly admitting this which is easy to see.

It’s funny i probably have more exposure to BTC than a lot of people on these boards and yet I’m still able to make impartial observations on price action.

I wonder if those two things are correlated

[sgbett]

amiga because it got 8 bits

Commodore Amiga was a 32bit CPU first sold 1987, great innovation and potential used for many years but PC was unbeatable because it was modular (it was inferior for a decade after in some specifics) so it didnt matter as much if Amiga was better, PC served the common need better.      If we're taking lessons from history such as quoting Mt.Gox when that was a known mistake even back in 2013 people realised something was wrong but people will continue always to do the easiest thing.   The more simple the conclusion the more likely it will be repeatedly true.

Obviously Bitcointalk is the wrong place to critizice bitcoin.

Totally the right place so long as its BTC we discuss.    If criticism isnt possible then thats a failure right there but its not the case.

No alt is going to challenge BTC especially until its far easier to use by a big margin, then we can talk about vast populations of people who arent in crypto and could be and might be if its thats simple.   Any time they bring out a mobile phone with a wallet on it, thats probably the most relevant source of future success available.   When I was growing up, most people didnt like or couldnt handle PC, console was not really it as its just one task but mobile was the big sea change.  People dont want crypto but they might need it, its not the technical people who love the details who matter for future success I guess.
   I dont agree Mt.Gox can give us a specific price target 6 years later, it was an inaccuracy in the price.  I guess the volume of coins was significant and is being distributed now from it and I dont know the schedule of that sale.

Interesting thoughts. I’m of the opinion that gox was only a catalyst and that subsequent price action reflects crowd psychology. That’s why I think it applies here too. It’s less important what the specific event is that interrupts a price run than it is that the crowd concludes its over. Once they do I think price action unfolds similarly. Especially in a less sophisticated market. (I still don’t  think there is that much institutional money yet)

[philipma1957]

Sgbett is also trashing BTC to make money but he is frankly admitting this which is easy to see.

It’s funny i probably have more exposure to BTC than a lot of people on these boards and yet I’m still able to make impartial observations on price action.

I wonder if those two things are correlated

At least you are transparent if you want to bet on a vs b  and make it clear  by stating your reasons.

This why I have zero issue with it as you simply state you think one is better then the other.

[gentlemand]

This why I have zero issue with it as you simply state you think one is better then the other.

I can understand why someone might be sceptical and unhappy with the direction Bitcoin has taken.

What I don't understand is how any rational being can look at BSV and think 'hot damn, Craigy and his miner have this shit nailed.'

You can support big blocks and still think the current options offering it are broken jokes. It's not a crime or dichotomy. Most people are pissing on their current implementations and the personalities controlling them, not the concept.

[Lauda]

What I don't understand is how any rational being can look at BSV and think 'hot damn, Craigy and his miner have this shit nailed.'

You can support big blocks and still think the current options offering it are broken jokes. It's not a crime or dichotomy. Most people are pissing on their current implementations and the personalities controlling them, not the concept.

You can't. This isn't a matter of opinion, it's a matter of facts based on empirical evidence. Just because some people choose to approach science then same way that they approach religion (hurr durr the almighty God/Satoshi/whatever), that doesn't mean that this position is correct from any perspective. Because it isn't.

[exstasie]

This why I have zero issue with it as you simply state you think one is better then the other.

I can understand why someone might be sceptical and unhappy with the direction Bitcoin has taken.

What I don't understand is how any rational being can look at BSV and think 'hot damn, Craigy and his miner have this shit nailed.'

You can support big blocks and still think the current options offering it are broken jokes. It's not a crime or dichotomy. Most people are pissing on their current implementations and the personalities controlling them, not the concept.

I'm pissing on the concept as well.

There are 3 ways of securing a decentralized cryptocurrency network: inflation, demurrage, and transaction fees.

Demurrage (implemented in Freicoin) is unappealing to people because it's a literal tax on their holdings. People prefer a more imperceptible form of loss like inflation. However with Bitcoin, we've already sworn off long term inflation, leaving us only with the 3rd option.

Raising block size limit beyond transaction demand cripples any hope for transaction fees to secure a network. With unlimited supply of block space, there is no pressure on users to pay transaction fees. It's completely unsustainable in a post-inflation world.

It's a broken idea. We either need mandatory transaction fees or a fee market model.

[philipma1957]

This why I have zero issue with it as you simply state you think one is better then the other.

I can understand why someone might be sceptical and unhappy with the direction Bitcoin has taken.

What I don't understand is how any rational being can look at BSV and think 'hot damn, Craigy and his miner have this shit nailed.'

You can support big blocks and still think the current options offering it are broken jokes. It's not a crime or dichotomy. Most people are pissing on their current implementations and the personalities controlling them, not the concept.

I'm pissing on the concept as well.

There are 3 ways of securing a decentralized cryptocurrency network: inflation, demurrage, and transaction fees.

Demurrage (implemented in Freicoin) is unappealing to people because it's a literal tax on their holdings. People prefer a more imperceptible form of loss like inflation. However with Bitcoin, we've already sworn off long term inflation, leaving us only with the 3rd option.

Raising block size limit beyond transaction demand cripples any hope for transaction fees to secure a network. With unlimited supply of block space, there is no pressure on users to pay transaction fees. It's completely unsustainable in a post-inflation world.

It's a broken idea. We either need mandatory transaction fees or a fee market model.

Last I looked  we could go to a block size of 16 or 32.

without any forks it was already in the software.

Moving to 4 vs 2  after next jump would be okay and kick the can down the road.

When I look at this system  and the move to alter transaction patterns to off line transactions I see a system getting corrupted.

Do I think BCH or BSV or even BTC are any better then each other not really. What I do think as a miner more then anything else is those 3 coins use sha-256

algorithm which has the most hash in terms of hard iron. 

 Basically I value  crypto on hard iron gear with power grid infrastructure coin with lots of gear and hash is "good to me"  My entire valuation is:

 "turning power into coins"  So I look at four coins.  BTC BCH BSV LTC   as they have the most gear/hashpower .

  I don't even recognize pos coins as crypto coins  but thats me.

 I looked at the thread.
 I put lauda back on my trust list.  Because I read more posts from the Marquis and he or she has values in life that  seem to be not for me . He promotes things I don't believe in and if Lauda thinks he needs a flag  it is okay for me.  Frankly the Marquis's posts here were not flag worthy but he or she is promoting some heavy ideas on other threads.

What do I think happens with BTC vs BCH vs BSV over the next 1 year it wanders about   with no clear direction until Donald Trumps wins or loses 2020 election. 

Once that is settled  then coins will move hard and rapidly.

[Bossian]

You posted this in early February:



With a closing price in 2018 around $5500, we will see how things go next month but I must say, I am pretty impressed. Now I am waiting to see the price in May 2019.... above $10,000? I am holding now, will sell if the price ever goes close to $10,000.

As I said previously, the ETF could make things more unpredictable...

I am bumping this.
The price did not follow this prediction, even though the trend looks kind of accurate but we weren't even close to the called prices that I am quoting, therefore how to believe the 2483 price?

We were never closed to 16k in April 2018...
What's impressive on the other hand is the bottom at the end of 2018 even though it was worse than your prediction. Hope you are wrong on the long term trend.

[Bossian]

February 2021 is very far. It will rise to 100k before it fall to that bottom.

Right now it is not that far...
anyway I have a totally different chart that shows 20k for Januaru 2020. So let's wait a 14 months and see how it unfolds.



Ignore the red line for now.

The blue and green lines are acting as resistance and support.






Quoting the article: https://beincrypto.com/btc-bitcoin-price-prediction-2019-2020-5-years-updated-10-10-2019/

Strong similarities between the downward movement following the $1177.19 high on November 30, 2013 and the one following the $19,764.21 high on December 17, 2017.

Besides the fact that both of these highs occurred at the resistance line, the amount of time it took for the price to reach a low and the magnitude of decrease from high to low were very similar.


The price reached a low of $163.88 on January 14, 2014. This is 410 days after the high and marked a decrease of 87%.

The second time, the price reached a low of $3148.3 on December 15, 2018. This is 363 days after the previous high and marks a decrease of 84%.

Incorporating the trend-lines, we can see that the second low $198 on August 25, 2015 corresponds with the  green trend-line.


This low occurred after 222 days. If the price were to act in a similar manner, it would drop to the trend-line at $8000 on May 3, 2020.

Using this movement to find the price in the date in the 2014 movement that corresponds with December 31,2019 , we get a price of $10,600.


Using the same method, we get a price of $21,000 for December 31, 2020.

[STT]

Safest way to buy that I know of is going off the easily upset human sentiment, the market momentum is far greater then to observe our personal hopes for it.     Theres not nearly enough upset people at 8500 for me to be especially bullish and we have no history right now of a regular bullish trend.
   People have these long term projections but theres giant amounts of space for price movement within those year to year expectations.     I'm not rich enough to disregard the ability for it to goto 6000 or maybe even lower.    I'll reassess when or if we get there and look for the green shoots of rising lows and all that while thats happening I guess I read lot of gloom.  If Im a decent trader I'll try to hold my own opinion and stay optimistic because long term I dont disagree we can move up still but the BTC market tests extremes quite often imo.

[figmentofmyass]

I am bumping this.
The price did not follow this prediction, even though the trend looks kind of accurate but we weren't even close to the called prices that I am quoting, therefore how to believe the 2483 price?

it's just based on an extrapolation of the 2014 bear market. we can already see the proportions don't align, so we should also expect that the end target will miss too.

based on fibonacci relationships, one would expect that the higher the "bull trap" retracement is, the higher the eventual bottom will be. that's the fundamental idea behind "flat" waves in elliott wave theory: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:identifying_elliott_wave_patterns#flat_corrections

we didn't quite reach the 70% retracement requirement for a flat, but pretty close. i previously thought the $2483 prediction was too high given the predicted price structure, but it might actually be more reasonable now.

i still think he's way off and that the $14k rally this year wasn't a bull trap....

[Bossian]

I am bumping this.
The price did not follow this prediction, even though the trend looks kind of accurate but we weren't even close to the called prices that I am quoting, therefore how to believe the 2483 price?

it's just based on an extrapolation of the 2014 bear market. we can already see the proportions don't align, so we should also expect that the end target will miss too.

based on fibonacci relationships, one would expect that the higher the "bull trap" retracement is, the higher the eventual bottom will be. that's the fundamental idea behind "flat" waves in elliott wave theory: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:identifying_elliott_wave_patterns#flat_corrections

we didn't quite reach the 70% retracement requirement for a flat, but pretty close. i previously thought the $2483 prediction was too high given the predicted price structure, but it might actually be more reasonable now.

i still think he's way off and that the $14k rally this year wasn't a bull trap....

Thanks for the link about flat waves, that's interesting. I am still a newbie when it comes to techniques of trading. By the way by reading a totally different analysis (this one  https://beincrypto.com/btc-bitcoin-price-prediction-2019-2020-5-years-updated-10-10-2019/  ) would you think this analysis could be correct or looks too simple?

[sgbett]

You posted this in early February:



With a closing price in 2018 around $5500, we will see how things go next month but I must say, I am pretty impressed. Now I am waiting to see the price in May 2019.... above $10,000? I am holding now, will sell if the price ever goes close to $10,000.

As I said previously, the ETF could make things more unpredictable...

I am bumping this.
The price did not follow this prediction, even though the trend looks kind of accurate but we weren't even close to the called prices that I am quoting, therefore how to believe the 2483 price?

We were never closed to 16k in April 2018...
What's impressive on the other hand is the bottom at the end of 2018 even though it was worse than your prediction. Hope you are wrong on the long term trend.

You are absolutely correct the initial forecast wasn’t accurate on price.

Once I saw that we had a lower high on the initial bounce I revised it to account, charts I’ve posted since have the original forecast and a revised forecast (purple) as I’m not trying to actively trade so precision isn’t as important to me as some others, I’m looking at how human behaviour moves markets in predictable patterns.



So far so good (or bad depending on whether you saw it coming )

[Wexlike]

*skip*

You are absolutely correct the initial forecast wasn’t accurate on price.

Once I saw that we had a lower high on the initial bounce I revised it to account, charts I’ve posted since have the original forecast and a revised forecast (purple) as I’m not trying to actively trade so precision isn’t as important to me as some others, I’m looking at how human behaviour moves markets in predictable patterns.



So far so good (or bad depending on whether you saw it coming )

Would you admit to be wrong if a bull run occurs up to > $15k ?

[Bossian]

*skip*

You are absolutely correct the initial forecast wasn’t accurate on price.

Once I saw that we had a lower high on the initial bounce I revised it to account, charts I’ve posted since have the original forecast and a revised forecast (purple) as I’m not trying to actively trade so precision isn’t as important to me as some others, I’m looking at how human behaviour moves markets in predictable patterns.



So far so good (or bad depending on whether you saw it coming )

Would you admit to be wrong if a bull run occurs up to > $15k ?

He will definitely be wrong if that happens, that said right now it looks very unlikely to get close to 15k. Actually the price of 15k doesn't mean much, the important price is 12.5k-13k, if we get past that in the future, it means 20k is a sure thing.


PS: we could get past 13k again, for a huge bull run but OP prediction could still be correct about a new low in February 2021. It is very possible to see 20k again but we may want to wait for 3 or 4 years (please spare me the halving argument for next year, don't think it will have an impact, at least not in 2020).


@sgbett: since your initial prediction was based on the 2014 bear market, I am curious to hear your opinion after February 2021?
Bitcoin price could still look good after that.

[Bossian]

Also, credit when it's due, I checked this again and even though you were very wrong about 2018, your price mid 2019 looks amazingly correct.
I mean look at that chart with the peak at 13k in May-June 2019, this call was amazing. Kudos.