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Author Topic: my story, Thoughts on BFL  (Read 2914 times)
squall1066
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July 14, 2012, 04:26:01 PM
 #1

Hiya all,

I have been around bitcoins for a short time now, Wanted to start somewhere so I quickly came to the assumption that mining for my own coins is the only way. I very quickly learned that for a trust based community currency, There isn't any trust, As there are many scammers around I really did fear being trolled and flamed for asking for a loan, But thats another story.

Not being rich, or even haveing a clue what to do now, I jumped in the deep end and downloaded guiminer, and then lerned what I had to get it working (reverse engineering) Now I run a small rig @ 1.2GHs.

Now ASICS are being released, I dont even know what FPGA is? Everyone seams to be either rich enough to throw money on a good idea, Or smart enough to get fantastic results on new hardware.

My question is where do I go from here, I have looked at BFL and things like enterpoint, and you know what is really important for someone lower down the chain like me, Ease of use! I'm not saying i'm inflexable and unwilling to learn, but I have a job thats demanding, and I really love this currency idea and want to stay in the race, and to do that I have to step up to the mark when the difficulty and network hash speed goes through the roof.

As I say from my perspective BFL are plug and play, O.K. some tweeking, whatever, I can handle, I dont care that I wont get it this year, I dont care that it might not be "on spec" website says, price = hashing power! no sweat.

When I start looking at FPGA's I get a load of geeky spec that looks like someone mashed up a keyboard in the discription box, Not evena box that says "if i get x and put with y and load software z you will get around "said" speed.

I really need your thoughts.........

squall1066
P.S. mod, No idea where to put this, so I guess its speculation on my economic situation.

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July 14, 2012, 04:36:18 PM
 #2

this should go in the mining sub forum

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July 14, 2012, 04:53:14 PM
 #3

You may want to consider investing in mining companies on the GLBSE.  Very simple, and some of us operators are pretty good at staying ahead of the curve.

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July 14, 2012, 05:01:21 PM
 #4

You may want to consider investing in mining companies on the GLBSE.  Very simple, and some of us operators are pretty good at staying ahead of the curve.

This, it USED to be "buy Field Programmable Gate Arrays" but now the mythical ASIC's are supposedly coming out, Causing alot of spook

Wow I can't fit my OTC link in here
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July 14, 2012, 05:07:31 PM
 #5

ASICs are way faster per dollar and per watt (upwards of 10x) than FPGAs.  However, if Bitcoin dies ASICs become garbage and FPGAs can be repurposed.  Place your bet accordingly.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 14, 2012, 05:16:55 PM
 #6

You may want to consider investing in mining companies on the GLBSE.  Very simple, and some of us operators are pretty good at staying ahead of the curve.

I still think its a risk, I would love to put my coins back into my mining production, I set a price to build my rig, cant afford more, so looking to sell rig, use coins to "upgrade" depending on views.

ASICs are way faster per dollar and per watt (upwards of 10x) than FPGAs.  However, if Bitcoin dies ASICs become garbage and FPGAs can be repurposed.  Place your bet accordingly.

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

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July 14, 2012, 05:22:08 PM
 #7

ASICs are way faster per dollar and per watt (upwards of 10x) than FPGAs.  However, if Bitcoin dies ASICs become garbage and FPGAs can be repurposed.  Place your bet accordingly.

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

I've got quit a bit riding on the same side of that bet Wink.

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July 14, 2012, 05:22:52 PM
 #8

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

If you sincerely believe that and you think the price is likely to go up over the next couple years, then you should be buying bitcoins instead of mining equipment.
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July 14, 2012, 05:25:52 PM
 #9

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

If you sincerely believe that and you think the price is likely to go up over the next couple years, then you should be buying bitcoins instead of mining equipment.

That's debatable, although the real answer depends on too many unknowns at this point.  By the end of the year it should be easier to make a judgement, which is why I skipped FPGAs and am waiting for BFL ASIC production to reach full capacity before I consider buying new equipment.  I'll run my GPUs in the winter to help heat, and I will likely at least get a Jalapeno to do my part to secure the network.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 14, 2012, 05:31:26 PM
 #10

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

If you sincerely believe that and you think the price is likely to go up over the next couple years, then you should be buying bitcoins instead of mining equipment.

The problem with that, Is once I have bought some coins, I will hold on to them, probably untill it becomes a world currency, I doubt I could afford more anytime soon, So I'm in the "slow and steady" side of things.

I think we have to decide if were in it for the money or the idea, I'm not intrested in mining loads of coins, waiting till I can get 1 million for it then cash in, I want to buy my bread and milk with BTC

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July 14, 2012, 05:32:59 PM
 #11

this should go in the mining sub forum

Or better, the mining speculation subforum:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0

I guess its speculation on my economic situation.

You are essentially asking for unknowns.  Is it a good idea to send cash to a third party in return for the promise of future delivery of hardware when

 - eventual delivery date of purchased hardware
 - the mining difficulty
 - bitcoin exchange rate

are all unknowns?

That's what your question boils down to.

What is known is that with mining being technically available to anyone, anywhere, capacity will be added by those up to the point that it no longer remains profitable to do so.

For GPUs, the test as to whether or not to start mining or to add capacity was closely related to the cost of electricity (and, of course, is there technical skills, spare time, physical space that is secure with with adequate power and ability to remove heat, etc.)

It wasn't always so though.  In April through June, 2011, for example, GPU mining was fantastically profitable regardless of what you paid for electricity. The reason difficulty didn't jump faster was the difficulty in finding GPUs to acquire -- they were selling way higher than list price.  Eventually, the exchange rate dropped and equilibrium was found -- and the cost of electricity become the decision maker as far as whether or not to mine, to add capacity, or to shut down.

With ASICs it is once again access to the hardware that limits growth.  Everyone receiving the first ASICs will likely find mining to be very profitable.  The problem is, it is unproven if BFL can actually deliver these, or if they do, will it be long after the block reward drop in December, or will they trickle out where by the time you get yours the mining difficulty will already have risen so dramatically.

Someone wanting to mine and with access to plenty of capital would hedge their bets, ... some GPU mining, some FPGA mining and some orders in to BFL.  The safest bet today though is someone who already has large amounts of GPU mining capacity and whose electicity is cheap.  For them, profitability is still good, the GPUs will still have some value in five months (though selling now would probably yield more than after December), and the GPUs were cheaper to acquire than FPGAs so there isn't as much capital invested.  

If that describes you (yes, your 1.2 Ghash/s fits that bill ... though you haven't indicated what your cost per kWh for electicity), then keep your rig or even get another if you have cheap electricity and mine til it no longer makes sense.

But until BFL proves they have a functioning ASIC that can be shipped in quantity, any money sent their way is for purely speculative purposes with no guarantee.

This is something I have considered, It comes down to "do I think bitcoin will fail" my answer is no.

If you sincerely believe that and you think the price is likely to go up over the next couple years, then you should be buying bitcoins instead of mining equipment.

Exactly.  GPU mining essentially was a less risky form of speculating on the future BTC/USD exchange rate and future difficulty as you could also liquidate the hardware and get back a decent percent of the investment.   Ask most anyone who bought hardware in the past four months and you'ld find that they would have been better off holding those funds as BTCs until today, and then buying that same amount of hardware today (they'ld have the same hardware, but more BTCs left over than what mining for four months would have produced, after subtracting those BTCs that went to cover the cost of electricity).  The only ones this isn't true for are those who aren't paying for electricity or get it at a really cheap rate.

To sum it up though, if BFL does actually ship, in quantity and on the October schedule that they've mentioned, those who are the first to receive them will likely be very happy with their purchases.  But it is quite a gamble if that truly happens.

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July 14, 2012, 05:59:27 PM
 #12

Stephen Gornick:-

It is true there are alot of unknowns, But this how I think it through in my head**

There is going to be a reward drop to 25BTC (around end dec IIRC) and even if BFL dont get anyware near the hashing rate claimed or near the shipping date, the network rate will hike up to put lower rig's (GPU's) just out the field compleatly.
Even if it takes a year down the line for all this to happen (I WILL be mining till its not worth it) I still want to up it.

So if I can get a jalepeno that will tripple my output (or at least double if spec not good on release) and be less than a price of a GPU.


You have noticed I dont say power usage, Mainly because I enjoy mining, I don't smoke/drink/live life (lol) so a few quid a week in power is not a problem, I have a pay meter and its really not alot a week.

**Thinking in my head may have no affect on actual productsor serveces, This is limited one per coustomer over a 2 year period, you may have to pay back more than you invested, and is not a registerd product, may be used at owners risk.



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July 15, 2012, 04:09:17 AM
 #13

Stephen Gornick:-

It is true there are alot of unknowns, But this how I think it through in my head**

There is going to be a reward drop to 25BTC (around end dec IIRC) and even if BFL dont get anyware near the hashing rate claimed or near the shipping date, the network rate will hike up to put lower rig's (GPU's) just out the field compleatly.
Even if it takes a year down the line for all this to happen (I WILL be mining till its not worth it) I still want to up it.

So if I can get a jalepeno that will tripple my output (or at least double if spec not good on release) and be less than a price of a GPU.


You have noticed I dont say power usage, Mainly because I enjoy mining, I don't smoke/drink/live life (lol) so a few quid a week in power is not a problem, I have a pay meter and its really not alot a week.

**Thinking in my head may have no affect on actual productsor serveces, This is limited one per coustomer over a 2 year period, you may have to pay back more than you invested, and is not a registerd product, may be used at owners risk.




What is the purpose of mining for you then if you dont calculate power cost ?

No matter how slow/fast you mine, powercost is the direct cost to you for running your business(mining) so no matter how many coins you generate there is still the powercost to calculate out of the generated coins to see how much you actually earned.

If you mine to simply hold the coins until its worth more thus ignoring powercost right now, then you should buy coins which would follow the same method as mining atm except at zero powercost required for the calculation.

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July 15, 2012, 06:23:57 AM
 #14

You can ignore power costs in the winter if you have an electric heater Wink.

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July 15, 2012, 06:42:09 AM
 #15

You can ignore power costs in the winter if you have an electric heater Wink.

Then worry of cooling costs in the summer. During the winter my room was warm toasty compared to the rest of the house, now I have to keep the AC going so I don't melt. And this is only with a 6850 and 5770 chugging .5GH/s.
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July 15, 2012, 06:48:52 AM
 #16


Stephen Gornick:-

It is true there are alot of unknowns, But this how I think it through in my head**

There is going to be a reward drop to 25BTC (around end dec IIRC) and even if BFL dont get anyware near the hashing rate claimed or near the shipping date, the network rate will hike up to put lower rig's (GPU's) just out the field compleatly.
Even if it takes a year down the line for all this to happen (I WILL be mining till its not worth it) I still want to up it.

So if I can get a jalepeno that will tripple my output (or at least double if spec not good on release) and be less than a price of a GPU.


You have noticed I dont say power usage, Mainly because I enjoy mining, I don't smoke/drink/live life (lol) so a few quid a week in power is not a problem, I have a pay meter and its really not alot a week.

**Thinking in my head may have no affect on actual productsor serveces, This is limited one per coustomer over a 2 year period, you may have to pay back more than you invested, and is not a registerd product, may be used at owners risk.




What is the purpose of mining for you then if you dont calculate power cost ?

No matter how slow/fast you mine, powercost is the direct cost to you for running your business(mining) so no matter how many coins you generate there is still the powercost to calculate out of the generated coins to see how much you actually earned.

If you mine to simply hold the coins until its worth more thus ignoring powercost right now, then you should buy coins which would follow the same method as mining atm except at zero powercost required for the calculation.

This is what i'm trying to say, I want to live in a crypto-currency enviroment, I am mining now so I can survive when fiat currencys sink (probably not in my life time) I don't calculat electric mainly because it's more of a belief and not a bussines.



You can ignore power costs in the winter if you have an electric heater Wink.

It's an all electric flat, and the rig is in the hall. Mmmmmm nice and warm in the winter.


You can ignore power costs in the winter if you have an electric heater Wink.

Then worry of cooling costs in the summer. During the winter my room was warm toasty compared to the rest of the house, now I have to keep the AC going so I don't melt. And this is only with a 6850 and 5770 chugging .5GH/s.

I am in the UK so we dont have a summer  Grin

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July 19, 2012, 06:21:01 AM
 #17

I am mining now so I can survive when fiat currencys sink (probably not in my life time)

I lol'd




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July 20, 2012, 06:25:32 PM
 #18

I am mining now so I can survive when fiat currencys sink (probably not in my life time)

I lol'd



It made me forget what this thread was about.

They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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July 21, 2012, 05:47:16 AM
 #19

Ease of use!

Sorry but, ease of mining is really not that important. Mining isn't for everybody (a lot of people, but not everybody).

If you want coins, buy them -- it's really easy, and there are dozens of ways to do it. Most coins are bought, not mined. (If everyone mined coins, and no one bought, the price would be zero.)

If you are buying GPU hardware to mine right now, there's a good chance that you are going to lose money -- even if you don't pay for electricity.
notme
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July 21, 2012, 05:57:07 AM
 #20

You can ignore power costs in the winter if you have an electric heater Wink.

Then worry of cooling costs in the summer. During the winter my room was warm toasty compared to the rest of the house, now I have to keep the AC going so I don't melt. And this is only with a 6850 and 5770 chugging .5GH/s.

Meh, just turn it off in the summer.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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