How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

[r34tr783tr78]

I still have a bearish vision on the market.
A several years old uptrend line was breached and, for the first time in years, we made a drastic low, lower than the previous major top (251 on Bitstamp).
This is starting to look too similar to the 2011 crash from 31.91 (June 2011) to 1.994 USDs (November 2011: MtGox data), followed by a long slow recovery.
If we are going to see a repetition of 2011, that would be very negative.
That would mean a crash to a price of 1/16 of the price on the top. Taking the Bitstamp top of 1163, it would be a crash to 72.68. If we take the top on MtGox (1242), we get 77.62. So, very close to the price of the Silk Road crash (2 October 2013) on Bitstamp: about 85.
But the recover of the 2011 crash wasn't in V. Actually, even the crash beyond 20 (after a first V one to 10 and then back to 20), was a slow one, like this crash more or less has been. With a few retrace rallies. And then a very painful two year recover from 1.994.
Only on the end of February 2013, price was above past top of 31.91.
History rarely repeats it self exactly, but if we go to 85/77/72, we might not have a V recovery, but a slow, painful, hesitant one. It won't take years to recover (because now Bitcoin has fundamentals that it hadn't before), but might take months.
Months with a price as low as 72-100 will damage mining seriously.
Of course, since the fundamental situation is different, the recovery might be much faster.
Anyway, if these prices are reached, but one of the 130-100-85-65 support zones holds, it will be a great buy. A buy some will tell their grandsons about.

[S3052]

this could be possible. we will watch the bitcoin forecast 24/7

[ronald98]

Last spring it seemed like the bottom was in and we were on the way to a new ATH. Once the price started to crash at the end of the summer it began to look possibly like 2011. Since the crash after Christmas it's beginning to look eerily similar to 2011.

There are still two US marshals auctions to go and their announcements alone might crash the price after the chaos the last one wrought.

[gentlemand]

Last spring it seemed like the bottom was in and we were on the way to a new ATH. Once the price started to crash at the end of the summer it began to look possibly like 2011. Since the crash after Christmas it's beginning to look eerily similar to 2011.

There are still two US marshals auctions to go and their announcements alone might crash the price after the chaos the last one wrought.

The second auction garnered nary a blip.

The silly sausages who were insisting that someone would lay out of millions of their hard earned dollars to destroy the price were proven wrong, amazingly enough.

[kwukduck]

At this point we pretty much have a guarantee to drop down to the 30-60 USD range within 2 months.
The worst thing, it's also pretty much certain there will be no return up.

[r34tr783tr78]

Everyone is entitled to his opinion, but opinions not based on the presentation of any grounds won't have much weight.

[Ultros]

At this point we pretty much have a guarantee to drop down to the 30-60 USD range within 2 months.
The worst thing, it's also pretty much certain there will be no return up.

Yep... I'm out of fiat too, all in BTC now.
Funny how this dead technology works so well still

[NotLambchop]

^
My Bitcoin literacy campaign is bearing fruit



There's hope for you economic savages yet!

[cheekychap]

Both have different reasons, so not much similar. The rise won't be similar for sure

[inca]

kwukduck sounds similar to exo.

doomer loser.

[Bitcopia]

kwukduck sounds similar to exo.

doomer loser.

Some people around this forum post drastically differently from day to day depending on whether they are short or long. You can go ahead and press the ignore button. The valuable members speak reason and logic regardless of their position, and they tend to understand that trying to trick a few gullible people on a forum isn't going to effect the price.

Back to the topic, this crash is similar in its duration. There is just too much good news recently for it to last much longer. Wall street has officially entered. More to come.

[Dilla]

so much has changed since 2011. The only reason we will see a crash anymore is because Wall Street wanted it. That being said Wall St is here, has been here for months, and it's about to get crazy

[knight22]

How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

Judge by yourself:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926458.msg10171225#msg10171225

[HarmonLi]

How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

Judge by yourself:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926458.msg10171225#msg10171225

Wow!!! That looks really really convincing! I know, we tend to see patterns everywhere, yet this at least calls for the effect of a self-fulfilling prophecy! You're registered since 2012, right? Have you experienced BTC in 2011 already? Does it feel similar?

[knight22]

How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one?

Judge by yourself:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=926458.msg10171225#msg10171225

Wow!!! That looks really really convincing! I know, we tend to see patterns everywhere, yet this at least calls for the effect of a self-fulfilling prophecy! You're registered since 2012, right? Have you experienced BTC in 2011 already? Does it feel similar?

I found bitcoin right after that bubble and spent a lot of time studying it. From what I've heard and read from others who was there, sentiments was pretty similar to the last one. Except the bear market was more than twice longer this time. After the 2011 bubble there were the longest stability period before the next bull run. Will history repeat itself? We'll see.

[minerpumpkin]

I also think that the resemblance is uncanny! Also, we're at similar positions now - at least somewhat. There's a reward halving at the horizon, we're definitely there for another year(+) yet, but at some point between now and then it will be priced in by everyone. Interesting times ahead, indeed!

[jaberwock]

Things changed and the amplitude of the moves are reduced, compared to the old times.

But I think we will see a similar picture than 2011, if you not consider the numbers(some years or so of recovery until the true moon mission)

[minerpumpkin]

Things changed and the amplitude of the moves are reduced, compared to the old times.

But I think we will see a similar picture than 2011, if you not consider the numbers(some years or so of recovery until the true moon mission)

Really? I'm not so sure about that. For all we know we might very well still be ahead of the biggest bubble still! It could very well be that we're about to see the really big money flowing in any day now. Maybe only in a couple of years, maybe never, who knows... I just want to point out that there's no way of knowing what orders of magnitude we're talking about!

[r34tr783tr78]

Volume is indeed important and the jump in volume can't be ignored, but I'm afraid the 151/166 won't be the bottom. It's no important support, compared to 2011 the price still has a lot to drop and I can't see force in this reaction to the crash: it looks like a retracement.

Disclosure: I'm shorting this, I think the 242 were the top, but if you think my post has anything to do with this, you must considerer that I have my posts in very high esteem. It's absurd to think that an anonymous post can have any influence on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin isn't an insignificant alt coin. Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here. Trolls trying to influence the price with their posts are as ridiculous as wolfs trying to scare the moon with their howls.

[minerpumpkin]

Volume is indeed important and the jump in volume can't be ignored, but I'm afraid the 151/166 won't be the bottom. It's no important support, compared to 2011 the price still has a lot to drop and I can't see force in this reaction to the crash: it looks like a retracement.

Disclosure: I'm shorting this, I think the 242 were the top, but if you think my post has anything to do with this, you must considerer that I have my posts in very high esteem. It's absurd to think that an anonymous post can have any influence on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin isn't an insignificant alt coin. Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here. Trolls trying to influence the price with their posts are as ridiculous as wolfs trying to scare the moon with their howls.

You seem very confident. That's a bold step, shorting now. Well, the thing is: If everyone expects Bitcoin to go lower, it sometimes has the tendency to just do the opposite. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!