New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%)

[notlist3d]

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,925,287,720 (+4.00%)
Adjust time:    After 818 Blocks, About 5.3 days

All considered not really to bad.  With neg 6 the week before still a good mining season really.

it is dropping a bit  it may go down a little more.

Your right just keeps getting better:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,347,887,856 (+2.60%)
Adjust time:    After 684 Blocks, About 4.5 days

[Kexkey]

Hmm, what happens if the difficulty ends up on the midpoint between two guesses? If it's rounded to 2 decimal places, it seems like it could be possible this occurs.

You know, we gotta get this legalese worked out.

Good point. The probability is very slim but I will add something to the rules for next round.

Well it's not too late for the current round if you have an idea of what to do.  The added something likely won't affect our estimates at this point...

[philipma1957]

Were definitely gaining this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty:    42,951,266,410 (+4.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1164 Blocks, About 7.5 days

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158           Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 --------                  Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 --------                  Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th

You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers

but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days    'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152   so we are up   7.03%   like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and

today feb 5 

   on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks    I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27

we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days   normal is 9 x 144 = 1296  so we are up  6.32% 

[suchmoon]

Hmm, what happens if the difficulty ends up on the midpoint between two guesses? If it's rounded to 2 decimal places, it seems like it could be possible this occurs.

You know, we gotta get this legalese worked out.

Good point. The probability is very slim but I will add something to the rules for next round.

Well it's not too late for the current round if you have an idea of what to do.  The added something likely won't affect our estimates at this point...

It's extremely unlikely to happen, more of a "cover my ass" type of statement. I think for the next round I'll probably state that the earlier poster wins, like with duplicated guesses, but I'm still thinking if that's really fair. Any ideas are welcome.

For the current round I'll just hope it won't happen or pay both winners if it does.

[SimplisticStu]

Maybe a split prize if this situation was to arise, it would encourage people to make unique guesses as opposed to copying guesses

[philipma1957]

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158          Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 --------  159      Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 --------                  Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th


You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers

but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days    'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152   so we are up   7.03%   like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and

today feb 5  

   on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks    I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27

we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days   normal is 9 x 144 = 1296  so we are up  6.32%  
[/quote]

And 1 more big one 159

means 1537 in 10 days this is around 6.73% if you count Jan 27th

[skuser]

With only 3 days to go this looks to me like at least +8% diff jump

[SimplisticStu]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

[seriouscoin]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

[philipma1957]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

I do love  you Mr Seriouscoin I also am grateful for the lack of obscenities in your post.

I have 2 s-3's at discounted power at my friends office  they are 2.4 cents a kwatt

I have 2 s-5's in china I pay about 9 cents a kwatt for them

I have 9 sp20's in house 1 pay 13 cents per hour with  winter rates  the heat they generate warms my home and drops the cost to 10 cents per hour

I have 1 s-5 in house same deal the rate are 13 cents adjust to 10 cents for the heat.

In no way does that count as free power.

 At this point in time home mining would be over if it was June 30 as my summer rates are 16 cents with no heat benefits.

These numbers are very hard for me to sustain mining .  I may move my miners to a wash DC location and go partners on the power bill.

[seriouscoin]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

I do love  you Mr Seriouscoin I also am grateful for the lack of obscenities in your post.

I have 2 s-3's at discounted power at my friends office  they are 2.4 cents a kwatt

I have 2 s-5's in china I pay about 9 cents a kwatt for them

I have 9 sp20's in house 1 pay 13 cents per hour with  winter rates  the heat they generate warms my home and drops the cost to 10 cents per hour

I have 1 s-5 in house same deal the rate are 13 cents adjust to 10 cents for the heat.

In no way does that count as free power.

 At this point in time home mining would be over if it was June 30 as my summer rates are 16 cents with no heat benefits.

These numbers are very hard for me to sustain mining .  I may move my miners to a wash DC location and go partners on the power bill.

Didnt you say in other thread that you're happy because the electricity is included ?

You're probably the only old miner that is still buying miners recently to maximize your mining capacity...at home.

[philipma1957]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again  

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

I do love  you Mr Seriouscoin I also am grateful for the lack of obscenities in your post.

I have 2 s-3's at discounted power at my friends office  they are 2.4 cents a kwatt

I have 2 s-5's in china I pay about 9 cents a kwatt for them

I have 9 sp20's in house 1 pay 13 cents per hour with  winter rates  the heat they generate warms my home and drops the cost to 10 cents per hour

I have 1 s-5 in house same deal the rate are 13 cents adjust to 10 cents for the heat.

In no way does that count as free power.

 At this point in time home mining would be over if it was June 30 as my summer rates are 16 cents with no heat benefits.

These numbers are very hard for me to sustain mining .  I may move my miners to a wash DC location and go partners on the power bill.

Didnt you say in other thread that you're happy because the electricity is included ?

You're probably the only old miner that is still buying miners recently to maximize your mining capacity...at home.

The china ones have power paid until feb 20th.



I can not see myself mining past Spring in my home. I will sell a few off in March and a few off in April.

[philipma1957]

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158           Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 -------- 159           Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 -------- 171               Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th


You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers

but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days    'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152   so we are up   7.03%   like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and

today feb 5  

   on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks    I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27

we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days   normal is 9 x 144 = 1296  so we are up  6.32%  

And 1 more big one 159

means 1537 in 10 days this is around 6.73% if you count Jan 27th
[/quote]

and the biggest number in a few weeks 171

this is 1708 block in 11 days = 155.27 blocks a day or (+7.82%).



   What does it mean?
 I would think  a big boy like KNC  or Bitfury is bringing a plant on line.  Others may want to say variance but not this time.

[suchmoon]

 found a nice chart  144 = 0%


  http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Jan 28 --------163           Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165           Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142           Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162           Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb  1 -------  156           Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 --------  154           Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 --------  133           Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158           Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 -------- 159           Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 -------- 171               Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 --------                  Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 --------                  Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 --------                  Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 -------                  Jan 26 ------- 129

As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st

 Last adjustment 4  days over 144  10 under

note blocks made on feb 3  nice drop.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

back up on the 4th


You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers

but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days    'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152   so we are up   7.03%   like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and

today feb 5  

   on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks    I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27

we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days   normal is 9 x 144 = 1296  so we are up  6.32%  

And 1 more big one 159

means 1537 in 10 days this is around 6.73% if you count Jan 27th

and the biggest number in a few weeks 171

this is 1708 block in 11 days = 155.27 blocks a day or (+7.82%).



   What does it mean?
 I would think  a big boy like KNC  or Bitfury is bringing a plant on line.  Others may want to say variance but not this time.

Variance  

It's still within the same range as it's been for the last 4-6 weeks. If it breaks towards 400 PH/s then I'll eat my chocolate hat.  

[klondike_bar]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

however, it is a good time to get *some* used gear at good prices. I pay $0.09 USD for nighttime and $0.13 in the daytime/peak, so am still somewhat competitive.

and im hoping to move into ~$70/kw/month colocation very soon

[philipma1957]

It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again 

Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.

Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....

however, it is a good time to get *some* used gear at good prices. I pay $0.09 USD for nighttime and $0.13 in the daytime/peak, so am still somewhat competitive.

and im hoping to move into ~$70/kw/month colocation very soon

Yeah I am hoping to share part of a location in Wash DC.  I would drive 8sp20's to it.  Pay a piece of the power and mine.

 Keep
1 s-5
1 avalon4
1 sp20 in house

[picolo]

Nice discussion https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty gives an estimated next difficulty of 44,273,469,567 (+7.27%)

Last 502 blocks are at 47 Billions.

[SimplisticStu]

Difficulty is a joke right now with the recent price slump, where's all the hash power coming from and how are they affording to operate?

[philipma1957]

Difficulty is a joke right now with the recent price slump, where's all the hash power coming from and how are they affording to operate?

well if it is not   variance and it is hash, then  it is a major company using  'special' gear

   Say bitfury adding 30-50 ph.

 In theory  they  should be building a major plant in the north of Finland or maybe Iceland.

[mavericklm]

so they can survive at ~220$ a btc for 3 weeks....